تمرد مجموعة فاغنر

(تم التحويل من Wagner Group rebellion)
تمرد مجموعة ڤاگنر
جزء من الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا
Wagner Group rebellion 2023.svg
  أقصى توسع للأراضي تحت سيطرة مجموعة ڤاگنر أثناء التمرد
التاريخ23-24 يونيو 2023 (يوم واحد)
الموقع
روسيا
النتيجة توقفت قوات ڤاگنر عن التقدم في 24 يونيو، وبدأت الانسحاب في الساعة 11:00 مساءاً. (GMT+3).
المتحاربون

الحكومة الروسية

القادة والزعماء
القوى
PMC Wagner Center logo.png 8.000–25.000[note 1] غير معروفة
الضحايا والخسائر
2 قتيل، العديد من الجرحى[3]
5 vehicles destroyed[note 2]

13–20+ قتيل[5]
إسقاط 6 مروحيات وطائرة مركز قيادة محمولة [note 3]

2أسر مركبتين طراز [note 4]

في 23 يونيو 2023، شنت مجموعة ڤاگنر، تنظيم شبه عسكري روسي، تمرداً على الحكومة الروسية. بدأ التمرد وسط توترات متصاعدة بين وزارة الدفاع الروسية ويڤگني پريگوژين، قائد ڤاگنر.[6]

صور پريگوژين التمرد على أنه رداً على هجوم مزعوم على قواته من قبل الوزارة.[7][8] رفض تبرير الحكومة لغزو أوكرانيا،[9] ملقياً باللوم على وزير الدفاع سرگي شويگو على أوجه القصور العسكرية للبلاد،[10] واتهمه بشن الحرب لصالح الأوليگارك الروس.[11][12] في خطاب متلفز في 24 يونيو، ندد الرئيس الروسي ڤلاديمير پوتن بأفعال ڤاگنر ووصفها بأنها خيانة وتعهد بقمع التمرد.[8][13]

سيطرت قوات پريگوژين على روستوڤ أون-دون والمنطقة العسكرية الجنوبية وبدأت في التقدم نحو موسكو في طابور مدرع.[14] بعد مفاوضات مع الرئيس البلاروسي ألكسندر لوكاشنكو،[15] وافق پريگوژين على الاستسلام[16]وفي 24 يونيو، بدأ الانسحاب من روستوڤ-أون-دون.

قُتل ما لا يقل عن ثلاثة عشر جنديًا من الجيش الروسي أثناء التمرد،[5] بينما قتل اثنان من المنشقين العسكريين الروس وهم يقاتلون إلى جانب ڤاگنر.[3]

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خلفية

يڤگني پريگوژين ومجموعة ڤاگنر

للمزيد من المعلومات: مجموعة ڤاگنر
يڤگني پريگوژين عام 2010.

Yevgeny Prigozhin initially gained fame as a prominent business magnate in Saint Petersburg, renowned for a series of popular restaurants. This association eventually fostered a financial relationship with Putin, who was involved in city politics at the time.[17] Prigozhin became a close personal confidant of Putin.[18]

In 2014, Prigozhin established the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. Despite the legal prohibition of private military companies in Russia, Wagner operated unhindered under the tacit approval of the government.[18] Many analysts have said that the Wagner Group was used by the government to allow for plausible deniability and to obscure the true casualties and financial costs of Russia's foreign interventions.[19]

Functioning as an instrument of Russian foreign and military policy, the Wagner Group emerged as a formidable combat force in various regions, including the Donbas conflict.[20] The Wagner Group played a significant role during Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war, supporting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.[21][22] The Wagner Group also engaged in warfare during the Mali War, in Libya, and in the Central African Republic. Wagner gained notoriety for its brutal tactics and involvement in war crimes across Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, committing atrocities without facing consequences.[22][23][24]

The group maintains close ties with several African governments, and is often given free rein to exploit the natural resources of the countries in exchange for fighting alongside local forces against anti-government rebels.[25][26] Wagner economic activities in Africa only appeared to continue to grow during the Russian invasion of Ukraine,[25] with the money used to fund the fighting in Ukraine and elsewhere.[26]

غزو أوكرانيا ونزاع ڤاگنر-وزارة الدفاع

انظر أيضاً: أنشطة مجموعة ڤاگنر في أوكرانيا
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have been the two most prominent targets of Prigozhin's rhetoric.

محاولات الحد من نفوذ پريگوژين

According to United States officials, Yevgeny Prigozhin had feuded with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) "for years" before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,[27] but relations deteriorated further and more publicly during the war.[27][28][29] In the initial months of the invasion, the Russian Ground Forces suffered significant losses, but the announcement of mobilization for reservists was delayed by Putin. In response, the authorities actively recruited mercenaries to participate in the invasion, leading to the increased influence and power of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin received substantial resources, including his own aviation, and starting in the summer of 2022, he gained the right to recruit inmates from Russian prisons into Wagner in exchange for liberty.[30] Western intelligence estimated that the number of Wagner members grew from "several thousand" fighters around 2017–2018 to about 50,000 fighters in December 2022, with the majority being criminal convicts recruited from prisons.[30]

Although the government provided Wagner with increasingly large resources, the group had no legal authority. Prigozhin held no official position and was neither appointed nor elected, meaning that he technically had no authority to answer to.[31] Additionally, Prigozhin became internationally famous, abandoning his previously secluded personal life.[32] He frequently reported news from the frontline while wearing military fatigues. Wagner started to be perceived as Prigozhin's private army, operating outside Russian legislation and the country's military hierarchy. The MoD and the General Staff were dissatisfied with this situation and began attempting to limit Prigozhin's growing influence.[31] In early February 2023, Prigozhin announced that Wagner had ceased recruiting prisoners,[33] which the British Defense Ministry interpreted as a government ban on such recruitment. This change was expected to diminish the group's fighting capacity.[34]

Conversely, Prigozhin often accused Russia's military leadership of failing to protect Russia's interests. On 1 October 2022, during Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive, which pushed Russia out of most of the region, Prigozhin criticized the Russian command, stating that "All these bastards ought to be sent to the front barefoot with just a submachine gun."[35] Due to his increased influence, Prigozhin was among the few who dared to complain about the military commanders to Putin.[36][37] Prigozhin primarily targeted the MoD, characterizing its officials as corrupt.[28][29] However, he also criticized other segments of the Russian elite,[38] including the members of Russian parliament and Russian oligarchs, whom he accused of attempting to "steal everything that belongs to the people" during the war.[39][38] In one of his statements, Prigozhin criticized Russian elite and their children for enjoying a luxurious and carefree life while ordinary people die in the war. Prigozhin drew parallels between this "division in society" and the one preceding the 1917 Russian Revolution, warning of potential uprisings by "soldiers and their loved ones" against such injustice.[40][41] The Institute for the Study of War noted that Prigozhin's statements increased his influence in the ultranationalist Russian milblogger community.[42]


تصاعد التوترات أثناء وبعد معركة باخموت

During the arduous battle of Bakhmut, tensions between the Wagner Group and the MoD escalated to a critical point.[42] Prigozhin repeatedly voiced his dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's inadequate ammunition supply. He issued threats of withdrawing his forces unless his demands were met, specifically blaming Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for the substantial loss of life among Wagner fighters, which he claimed amounted to "tens of thousands" of casualties.[43] The United States estimated that nearly half of the 20,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine between December 2022 and June 2023 were Wagner fighters who perished in Bakhmut.[22]

Following the Russian declaration of victory in Bakhmut in late May 2023, Wagner began withdrawing from the city, and was being replaced by regular troops.[44] Nevertheless, internal conflicts persisted between Wagner and the Russian army during this transition.[45][46] Prigozhin alleged that the military attempted to attack his withdrawing forces on both 3 June[47][48] and 5 June.[49][50] On 5 June 2023, Prigozhin released a video on his social media channels alleging to show the captured Lt. Colonel Roman Venevitin of Russia's 72nd Brigade, admitting to have ordered his troops to fire on withdrawing Wagner troops, allegedly while drunk.[49][50]

On 27 May 2023, milblogger and former Donetsk People's Republic Defense Minister Igor "Strelkov" Girkin accused Prigozhin of conspiring to employ the Wagner Group to orchestrate a coup within Russia. Girkin further asserted that Prigozhin was actively violating the Russian 2022 war censorship laws by openly criticizing the Russian high command and that his forces were effectively in a state of mutiny.[51] Prigozhin, however, refuted these allegations, asserting that the Wagner Group did not possess a sufficiently large army to execute a coup.[52]


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الأمر بدمج ڤاگنر

In mid-June 2023, the MoD ordered the Wagner Group to sign contracts with them before 1 July, effectively incorporating Wagner as a subordinate into the regular command structure and reducing Prigozhin's influence. Prigozhin refused to sign the deal, citing alleged incompetence on Shoigu's part.[53][54] Sources from Meduza reported this change would undermine Prigozhin's influence over Wagner and endanger Wagner's lucrative business operations in Africa.[55] Prigozhin unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent the order for Wagner's subordination while intensifying his criticism of the MoD. According to sources within the Russian government, Kremlin officials were caught off-guard by the rebellion, initially believing Prigozhin's actions to be a bluff aimed at extracting concessions. They only realized the severity of the situation once Wagner forces captured Rostov-on-Don.[56]

U.S. intelligence agencies observed a gradual build-up of Wagner forces near the Russian border, indicating the revolt was planned and contradicting Prigozhin's claim that the decision to rebel was taken on June 23.[57]

U.S. intelligence agencies obtained solid evidence of the impending rebellion, briefing military and administration officials about Prighozin's plans on 21 June after days of refining the intelligence findings, and—after obtaining additional corroborating evidence—also informing a group of members of Congress the next day. However, due to a lack of geostrategic interest in maintaining the integrity of Putin's administration and a fear that advanced U.S. knowledge of the Wagner plot would be portrayed as evidence of a foreign conspiracy by the Russian state, the findings were not made public or shared with Russian counterparts. Intelligence officials were nevertheless concerned about the implications of instability for the control of Russia's nuclear stockpile.[27]

التمرد

بيان پريگوژين

In a video released on 23 June 2023, Prigozhin claimed that the government's justifications for invading Ukraine were based on falsehoods. According to him, Russia's military intervention in Ukraine aimed to serve the interests of Russian elites.[58] He accused the MoD of attempting to deceive the public and the president by portraying Ukraine as an aggressively hostile force, even planning an attack in collaboration with NATO.[59] Prigozhin alleged that Shoigu and the "oligarchic clan" had personal motives for initiating the war.[60] Furthermore, he asserted that the Russian military command intentionally concealed the true number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, with casualties reaching up to 1,000 on certain days.[61]

Later on 23 June, Prigozhin amplified a video that had already been circulating in Wagner-associated Telegram channels that reportedly showed the aftermath of a missile strike on a Wagner rear camp. Prigozhin accused the Russian MoD of conducting the strike.[62][63] The Ministry of Defense denied the allegations of attacking Wagner's rear camps,[64] and the Institute for the Study of War was unable to confirm the veracity of the video, noting that it "may have been manufactured for informational purposes".[62]

Prigozhin declared the start of an armed conflict against the Ministry of Defense in a message posted on his press service's Telegram channel. Encouraging individuals interested in joining the conflict against the Ministry, he accused Shoigu of using artillery and helicopters to attack Wagner. Prigozhin also alleged that Shoigu had fled from Rostov-on-Don in a cowardly manner at nine o'clock in the evening.[65] Subsequently, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation announced the initiation of a case against Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, which pertains to armed rebellion.[66][67]

Russian generals Sergey Surovikin and Vladimir Alekseyev appealed to the Wagner fighters, urging them to cease hostilities.[68] State-run Channel One Russia broadcast an "emergency newscast," during which host Ekaterina Andreeva declared that Prigozhin's statements regarding alleged attacks by regular military forces on Wagner positions were false. Andreeva also mentioned that Putin had been briefed on the ongoing situation.[69] Responding to Prigozhin's statements, the country's military and National Guard deployed armored vehicles in both Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.[70][note 5]

Many members of Wagner were not informed about the planned rebellion beforehand. Consequently, they were perplexed by Prigozhin's call to arms and unsure which side to join.[55] Demobilized Wagner veterans were instructed to remain on standby and await orders from Prigozhin. Individuals in Moscow without any affiliation with Wagner reported receiving calls, seemingly from the Wagner Group, urging them to join a rally in support of the rebellion. Similar calls were made to residents of Rostov, soliciting support for the uprising.[55]

الاستيلاء على روستوڤ-أون-دون

Prigozhin met with Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov in Rostov-on-Don. Yevkurov failed to convince Prigozhin to withdraw his troops.

During the night of 23 to 24 June, an audio recording was released on behalf of Prigozhin, claiming that Wagner forces were entering Rostov-on-Don and urging regular military forces not to resist.[72][73] Another audio recording alleged that the head of the General Staff had ordered the Air Force to attack Wagner columns moving among civilian vehicles, accusing the General Staff of disregarding innocent lives. Prigozhin criticized the General Staff for prioritizing the killing of their own population instead of fighting the enemy. He also expressed gratitude to pilots who refused to carry out the orders.[74] Unverified footage suggested clashes between Wagner and the military in the city.[75] Wagner forces announced that they had seized control of military buildings in the city. Prigozhin was filmed in the courtyard of the Southern Military District headquarters building.[76][77] Prigozhin held a meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov at the headquarters, during which Yevkurov unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Prigozhin to withdraw his troops.[78]

Eyewitness footage depicted a long convoy of military and civilian vehicles heading towards the city, allegedly consisting of Kadyrovites who intended to confront the Wagner forces.[79][80] According to Chechen state media, they did not reach the urban center and did not enter into any hostilities.[81] It was posted in local Telegram channels that they either refused to enter the city or peacefully surrendered to the Wagner forces.[82] The authorities of Rostov Oblast advised residents to stay at home, although there were indications of crowding in the city center.[83] Local shops reduced their operating hours, and long queues formed at gas stations.[84]

According to a senior U.S. Department of Defense official, U.S. intelligence agencies had monitored the defection of large numbers of Russian soldiers from their military leaders and their joining the Wagner movement. The official added that the operations carried out by Wagner were widely supported by Russian soldiers and officers deployed inside Ukraine as well as in Russian territory and bases near the Ukrainian border.[85] According to Prigozhin, two defectors from the Russian Ministry of Defence were killed while fighting on Wagner's side during the rebellion.[3]

التقدم نحو موسكو

As Wagner secured control over Rostov-on-Don, armored Wagner columns began to advance rapidly toward Moscow (a distance of 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) from Rostov-on-Don) in the morning of June 24.[86][87] One column coming from Rostov and another crossing from occupied Ukraine advanced across Voronezh Oblast, meeting little resistance.[87] Outside the regional capital of Voronezh, Wagner troops were attacked by a helicopter.[86][88][74] The Air Force suffered significant losses while confronting Wagner troops, with six helicopters and an airborne command-center plane shot down.[note 3] At least thirteen Russian military personnel were killed.[5][89] Wagner fighters drove past Voronezh, more than halfway to Moscow,[86] and continued to push through Voronezh Oblast throughout the early afternoon without entering important cities.[87] Social media posts also showed footage of fighting between Wagner troops and the military in Voronezh proper, with Reuters citing military reports.[90][91][92] Voronezh lies halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.[77][90] According to media reports, Wagner group took control of all military facilities in the city.[93][94][86]

Wagner proceeded into Lipetsk Oblast, approximately 400 kilometres (250 mi) from Moscow.[95][96] They passed through the town of Yelets,[87] and continued north along the M4 Highway.[97][98] In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities destroyed highways with excavators in an attempt to slow the convoy's advance.[79][99] Some roadways were blocked with trucks and school buses.[99][97] The military set up defensive lines along the Oka river (which flows just south of Moscow) and barricaded bridge crossings.[79][99] The governors of Lipetsk Oblast and Voronezh Oblast urged all civilians to stay indoors, following reports of military columns and clashes along the M4 highway.[100][101][102]

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, announced that the ru (counter-terrorism regime) was being implemented in the capital.[103] Armoured vehicles and an increased presence of security forces was observed in Moscow. Municipal authorities contemplated a curfew,[79] and Wagner recruitment billboards were seen being hastily dismantled.[104] Der Spiegel reported that all flights out of Moscow were sold out as people attempted to flee the oncoming column.[105] According to the airplane-tracking website Flightradar24, an airplane used by Putin departed Moscow and flew towards St. Petersburg. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin was not on board,[106] and remained in the Kremlin.[107] Authorities also announced travel restrictions in Kaluga Oblast, which neighbors Moscow, with Governor Vladislav Shapsha telling residents to "refrain from travelling by private vehicle on these roads unless absolutely necessary".[108]

Meanwhile, the FSB raided Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg. Unconfirmed reports in Russian media said cardboard boxes containing 4 billion rubles ($47 million) were recovered from vehicles near the office,[109] and that gold bars and packs of an unknown white powder were also seized. Prigozhin said that the money was intended for employee salaries, compensations to relatives of fallen Wagner fighters[110] and other company expenses,[109] and alluded to Wagner's global covert influence operations - including in Africa and the United states - that needed to be conducted with cash.[110] Olga Romanova, journalist and leader of the Russian civil rights organization Russia Behind Bars, accused the FSB of threatening relatives of convicts recruited by Wagner since early morning on 24 June.[111]


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تسوية الأزمة

A crowd in Rostov-on-Don watching a Wagner tank with flowers sticking out of its muzzle

Prigozhin was reportedly personally attempting to establish contact with the presidential administration by mid-day 24 June, including with Putin himself, who refused to speak with Prigozhin. Final negotiations were reportedly conducted by the chief of staff Anton Vaino, secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and the Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Prigozhin reportedly insisted that the negotiations include top officials, with Putin's refusal to engage paving the way for Lukashenko's intervention.[112] Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly spoke to Prigozhin at Putin's request,[113] brokering a settlement in which Wagner fighters agreed to halt their advance and return to their base in exchange for a guarantee of their safety.[86]

In an audio statement, Prigozhin stated that he had accepted the deal to prevent bloodshed, and reiterated his motivations for the rebellion:[86][114][115]

They wanted to disband the Wagner military company. We embarked on a march of justice on June 23. In 24 hours, we got to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood. Now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Understanding responsibility [for the chance] that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned.

— Yevgeny Prigozhin، official statement، Voice of America[116]

At around 11:00 p.m. (GMT+3) on 24 June, the Wagner Group began withdrawing their forces from Rostov-on-Don.[117][118] Videos circulated on Russian social media showing residents of Rostov-on-Don cheering as Wagner troops left the city, with some even approaching Prigozhin to shake hands.[119][120] Asked to comment on the outcome of the revolt in the last known video of him during the rebellion, Prigozhin responded with levity: "It’s normal, we have cheered everyone up".[121] On 25 June, Wagner forces started to withdraw from Voronezh.[122]

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that Prigozhin would be sent to Belarus.[123] According to Peskov, Wagner fighters would not face prosecution, and those who did not participate in the rebellion would have the option to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. He said that the Wagner organization as a whole would return to its previous wartime deployment locations. Putin's office reportedly expressed gratitude to Lukashenko for his efforts in ending the rebellion.[124] As of June 26, the criminal case against Prigozhin was ongoing, according to Russian media. An unnamed official was cited as saying that there had not been enough time to shut the case down.[125]

A semblance of normality was quickly restored in Moscow. On 25 June, workers began repairing roads that had been destoryed to halt Wagner's advance.[126] Emergency counter-terrorism measures were ended in Moscow on 26 June.[127] In the wake of the rebellion, the Russian rouble exchange rate fell to its lowest point since March 2022.[127] On 26 June, the MoD anounced that Shoigu had visited Russian troops stationed in Ukraine; Shoigu was seemingly the first senior Russian official to appear publicly since the rebellion.[128]

On 26 June, Prigozhin released a recorded statement in which he defended the insurrection. Prigozhin claimed that the intent was to save Wagner Group and hold incompetent government officials accountable, claimed that the goal of the uprising was not the overthrow of the government, reiterated his accusation that that shelling of Wagner troops by the regular military was the immediate cause of the rebellion, and asserted that the rebellion was stopped to prevent a bloodbath and that regular military forces were the first to opened fire during the rebellion, killing some 30 Wagner members. Prigozhin also favorably compared Wagner's ability to threaten Moscow with the military's failed effort to capture Kyiv.[129]

ردود الفعل

الداخلية

خطاب پوتن

Vladimir Putin addressing the nation about the Wagner Group rebellion

Vladimir Putin addressed the nation on 24 June, calling Wagner's actions "treason" and promising to take "harsh steps" to suppress the rebellion. He stated the situation threatened the existence of Russia itself, drawing parallels to the Russian Revolution, which happened as the Russian Empire fought in the Eastern Front of World War I and led to the loss of territories in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.[61][107] Putin also appealed to Wagner forces who "by deceit or threats" had been "dragged" into participating in the rebellion.[130]

In response, Prigozhin stated that his main goal was to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov from office[131] and reiterated his accusations of corruption against the MoD.[132]

After airing Putin's address, TV stations returned to their scheduled programming.[133]

الشخصيات الحكومية

Russian establishment politicians called on Prigozhin to stop his rebellion and expressed support for Putin.[134][135][136] Dmitry Medvedev, leader of United Russia, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, and former president of Russia, stated that "the world will be put on the brink of destruction" if Wagner would be able to take control of the government and gain access to nuclear weapons.[137]

The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, called the situation "treason", and stated that his troops were en route to "zones of tension" to "preserve Russia's units and defend its statehood".[138] Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, of the Russian Orthodox Church, called on Russians to pray for Putin.[139]

المعارضة الروسية

Russian opposition groups responded in a variety of ways.[140] Russian Volunteer Corps leader Denis Kapustin praised Prigozhin, stating that although he and Prigozhin stood "on opposite sides of the barricades" and had "a different point of view" when it came to Russia's future, he genuinely considered Prigozhin "a patriot of Russia."[140] He later called to join the rebellion.[141][142][143] The Freedom of Russia Legion compared the events to those during the Russian Revolution, but advised readers to remember Wagner's numerous war crimes, and urged people not to "attribute military honor and valor to [Prigozhin] which does not exist."[140]

Exiled former oil magnate and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky urged Russians to support Prigozhin, saying that it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin,[144] but later called on Russians to arm themselves, while stating that "Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally".[145] The Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists issued a communiqué, stating that "neither the Putin regime nor Prigozhin are our friends. In this fight between two cannibals, anarchists should stay away—let them bleed each other as much as possible. That way, they won't be able to disturb people in the future."[146]

الدولية

Western leaders largely avoided directly commenting on the rebellion while it was unfolding and in its immediate aftermath, fearing that Putin would otherwise claim it was a foreign plot,[147][148] while concerns were raised over control of the Russian nuclear arsenal.[149] U.S. president Joe Biden discussed the situation with French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British prime minister Rishi Sunak.[150] In a phone conversation on 24 June, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan informed Putin that Turkey is prepared to help find a "peaceful resolution",[151] while calling on him to act with common sense.[152][153]

In response to the developments on 23 and 24 June, Estonia strengthened its border security,[154][155] while Latvia closed its border with Russia and suspended the entry of Russian citizens.[156] In Georgia, there were also calls for closing its border with Russia, but the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that it was not currently necessary.[157]

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, stated that the insurrection was evidence of Russia's political instability, "weakness", and infighting among the elite.[158][155][159][160][161] Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the rebellion an opportunity for the international community to "abandon false neutrality" on Russia and to provide Kyiv with all the weapons it needs to push Russian forces out of Ukraine.[162]

Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu said that the events in Russia were proof that Moldova ought to continue on its path of moving away from the "Eurasian space of destruction and war" and towards the European Union to ensure peace, stability and democracy in the country.[163]

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated on Twitter that the rebellion exposed the "weakness" of Putin and other dictatorial regimes,[164] and stated that "We must seize this moment now."[165] Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment commander Dzianis Prokharaŭ (be) expressed a similar sentiment in a video address on social media, calling on Belarusian military personnel not to interfere in the events.[166][167] Valery Sakhashchyk, the Representative for Defence and National Security in the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet in exile, called for a quick decision to either "use [the] historical chance and become a prosperous European country" or "lose everything". He called for the Belarusian military to assert Belarusian independence from Russia, to "unite the nation", and to "tune in to our wave and stay in touch".[168][169]

Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska and former member of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, voiced support for Putin in "his efforts to preserve peace and internal stability in Russia and restore order in the military and other forces",[170] as did North Korea[171][172] and China.[173][174] Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of the Ugandan President and commander of the Special Forces Command, stated that Uganda could send soldiers to Russia to help Putin against the rebellion if necessary.[175]

تحليل

أمن النظام

The rebellion—the first event of its sort in Russia since the 1993 constitutional crisis[99]—has been described as the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin's 23-year long rule.[176][81] Many international observers said that Putin's strongman image was diminished by the revolt.[177][178][179] The Institute for the Study of War commented that "the rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force."[97] U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on 25 June that the events showed "real cracks" in Putin's government, noting: "If you put this in context 16 months ago, Putin was on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine, looking to take the city in a matter of days, erase the country from the map. Now, he's had to defend Moscow, Russia's capital, against a mercenary of his own making."[179][180]

Anne Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic that Putin's encouragement of political apathy in Russia is backfiring, and "the flimsiness of this regime's ideology and the softness of its support have been suddenly laid bare".[181] Gideon Rachman argued in the Financial Times that "the uprising happened because the Putin project is falling apart. That process is likely to accelerate after the events of this weekend".[182] Mikhail Zygar, former editor of the now-banned TV Rain, told David Remnick of The New Yorker that "Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did".[183]

= سبب الفشل

According to political analyst ru (Tatiana Stanovaya), Prigozhin "was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary".[184] James Risen commented in The Intercept that "Wagner's heavily armed forces had at least the potential to outgun the remaining Russian security services guarding Moscow".[185]

التأثير على الأزمة الأوكرانية

According to the ISW's assessment on 25 June, the Russian military's combat capabilities did not seem to be "substantially impacted" by the rebellion.[186]

انظر أيضاً

الهوامش

  1. ^ Lower estimate per The Daily Telegraph,[1] تقديرات أكبر بحسب پريگوژين[2]
  2. ^ Two UAZ-23632-148-64, one AMN-590951, one Kamaz 6x6 and one Ural-4320[4]
  3. ^ أ ب Six helicopters (three Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helicopters, one Mi-35 Hind, one Ka-52 Alligator, one Mi-8 transport), one Il-22M airborne command-center plane.[187][5][97]
  4. ^ 1 تايگر و1 طراز كماز-435029[4]
  5. ^ Rostov-on-Don is near the frontlines in Ukraine where Wagner troops had been operating, and is also where Prigozhin had claimed that Wagner troops were headed.[70] It is directly connected to Moscow by the M4 highway.[71]

المصادر

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  169. ^ No label or title -- debug: Q119953095, Wikidata Q119953095 
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