نهاية العالم المناخية


مخطط مبسّط للعلاقات السببية المفرطة لفشل التغير المناخي العالمي المتسارع[1]
متظاهرون يحملون لوحة تحمل عبارة "الشباب ضد النهاية"، إضراب سان فرانسيسكو للشباب من أجل التغير المناخي - 15 مارس 2019.

نهاية العالم المناخية إنگليزية: Climate apocalypse (وتُسمى أيضاً ديستوبيا مناخية والانهيار الناجم عن المناخ، بين أسماء أخرى) وتشير عموماً إلى سيناريو متوقع ينطوي على انهيار الحضارة البشرية عالمياً واحتمال انقراض البشرية سواء كان ذلك نتيجة مباشرة أو غير مباشرة لتغير المناخ البشري. يقوم العديد من الأكاديميين والباحثين بتوضيح أنه في الواقع، ما لم يتم تنفيذ تصحيح جوهري بشكلٍ قريب، سيؤدي تغير المناخ إلى تجعل جزءاً أو جميع أرجاء الأرض غير صالحة للعيش نتيجة لدرجات حرارة مفرطة وظواهر جوية شديدة وصعوبة زراعة المحاصيل وتغير تكوين الغلاف الجوي للأرض.[2][3][4][5]

حذر العديد من العلماء مراراً من مخاطر شديدة تصل إلى مستوى ما يمكن وصفه بـ"نهاية العالم المناخية". على سبيل المثال، في سبتمبر 2021، نشرت أكثر من 200 مجلة طبية محكمة نداءً استعجالياً للعمل، مشيرة إلى أن زيادة درجة الحرارة بمقدار 1.5 درجة سيلحق الضرر الكارثي بالصحة العالمية ومنه لن يتعافى العالم.[6]

تم استكشاف سيناريوهات نهاية العالم المناخية في العديد من الأعمال الخيالية العلمية، وبشكل خاص في الأدب المرتبط بالمناخ، بما في ذلك مثل البذرة (حكاية الزارع) لأوكتافيا بتلر، الذي يصور انهيار البيئة من خلال انهيار المجتمع؛ الحرب الأمريكية لعمر العقاد، الذي يستكشف فكرة بلد غارق تعصف به الحروب؛ أو كلمة العالم غابة لأورسولا لي غوين، التي تتناول استعمار الفضاء كوسيلة للهروب من ظروف الأرض.

في الأوساط الأكاديمية، تتضمن المجالات التي تبحث في مثل هذه المخاطر نظريات الأنظمة والأمن المناخي، حيث يشير الأخير إلى البحث والتطوير المتعلقين بمخاطر الأمن الوطني والدولي التي يتسبب فيها التغيرات في أنماط المناخ، سواء بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر. في بعض الأحيان، يتم استخدام سيناريوهات أسوأ الحالات لتسليط الضوء على أهمية تحسين الجهود في مجال التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ، أو في نداءات لإعلان حالة الطوارئ المناخية من أجل تمكين ذلك.


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أصل الكلمة والاستخدام

للخطاب والمعتقدات المرتكزة على نهاية العالم جذور عميقة في السياقات الدينية، وتعتمد نهجاً سجالياً مماثلاً لتفسيرات العصرية العلمانية للكوارث المناخية.[7] تنقسم التفسيرات التاريخية إلى رؤيتين للنهاية: النهاية المأساوية والنهاية الكوميدية. يقوم العصرية المأساوية بتصوير تقسيم واضح بين الخير والشر، مع وجود أحداث مقدرة مسبقاً. على العكس من ذلك، تسلط الإطار الكوميدي الضوء على الوكالة البشرية المعيبة، ويتميز عادة بجدول زمني مفتوح ومتسلسل ومستمر.[8]تستخدم بعض أهم الكتب في مجال البيئة إطارات عصرية سواء مأساوية أو كوميدية: الربيع الصامت لراشيل كارسون (1962)، والقنبلة السكانية لبول وآن إيرليخ (1972)، والأرض في الميزان لآل گور (1992).[9]

تضع النهاية المأساوية مصيراً للمجتمع ينتهي بالنهاية العصرية. لا يوجد تحوّل عن هذا المسار، والاتجاه والسرعة التي يتجهون بها نحو هذه النهاية العصرية خارج عن سيطرة أي شخص. أما الجانب الكوميدي، فيشير إلى أن العمل البشري لديه القدرة على تغيير نتيجة النهاية العصرية.[10] من المهم أن نلاحظ أن النهاية العصرية ستحدث لا محالة، ولكن يمكن تأثير الظروف الخاصة التي تحدث فيها النهاية بشكل أكبر إذا تم اتخاذ إجراءات.

يُعزى في هذا المقال الصادر عام 1902 إلى العالِم السويدي وحائز جائزة نوبل في الكيمياء سڤانت أرنيوس نظرية تشير إلى أن احتراق الفحم يمكن أن يؤدي في نهاية المطاف إلى درجة ارتفاع في درجات الحرارة العالمية تسبب في انقراض الإنسان.[11]

لا يوجد مصطلح واحد متفق عليه يُستخدم لوصف الانهيار البيئي سواء كان نتيجة مباشرة أو غير مباشرة لتغير المناخ البشري، ومع ذلك تم استكشاف مثل هذا الحدث في الأدب والأعمال الخيالية وغير الخيالية لسنوات عديدة. في رواية جول ڤرن لعام 1889 رأساً على عقب، تصوّر تغير المناخ نتيجة لميل متعمد لمحور الأرض.

منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية، تمت استمرار مناقشة تدمير البيئة الناجم عن الحروب النووية.[12][13]

هناك تقليد في العالم الغربي يصف نهاية العالم المناخية باستخدام صور ووصف لأربعة فرسان من نهاية العالم وسمات أخرى من نهاية العالم في الإيمان المسيحي.[14][15] [16][17][18]


نهاية اللعبة المناخية

نهاية اللعبة المناخية هو مصطلح يُستخدم للإشارة إلى مخاطر انهيار المجتمع واحتمال انقراض الإنسانية نتيجة آثار التغير المناخي.[19]ويعتبر احتمال حدوث ذلك صغيراً.[19] ومع ذلك، يهدف استخدام هذا المصطلح إلى تحسين إدارة المخاطر من خلال إيلاء أولوية أعلى للسيناريوهات الأسوأ، من أجل "تحفيز العمل، وزيادة القدرة على التحمل، وإعطاء المعلومات للسياسات".[19][20]

يُفترض أن مثل هذا الانهيار يمكن أن يحدث من خلال مجموعة من العوامل المترابطة والمتزامنة مثل الجوع (فقدان المحاصيل، الجفاف)، والطقس المتطرف (الأعاصير، الفيضانات)، والحروب (نتيجة ندرة الموارد) والنزاع، والمخاطر النظامية (المتعلقة بالهجرة، الجوع، أو النزاع)، والأمراض.[19][1]

التداخل بين هشاشة الدولة، والحرارة المفرطة، والمخاطر النووية والبيولوجية الكارثية.[1]
التداخل بين توزيع السكان المستقبلي والحرارة المفرطة.[1]

يحذر بعض العلماء أيضاً من نقاط التحول: ارتفاعات طفيفة في درجات حرارة العالم تؤدي إلى تغييرات كبيرة في المناخ.[19][20] هذه النقاط الإمكانية قد تُفجِّر نقاط أخرى في تسلسل تصاعدي (تأثير الدومينو) بطريقة غير خطية[19]مما يجعل من الصعب تقدير تأثيراتها. العواقب غير المقصودة (تأثيرات غير مقصودة) أيضاً قد تتسبب في إطلاقها.[19][1] أظهرت دراسة في عام 2022 أن هذا المخاطر يعد موضوعاً "غير مستكشَف بشكل كافٍ وبشكل خطير" على الصعيد العالمي، على الرغم من أهميته، وأنه يفتقر إلى "التقييم المتكامل للكوارث".[21]

تم استخدام مصطلح نهاية اللعبة فيما يتعلق بتغير المناخ من قبل مؤلفين آخرين في الماضي،[22] مثلما هو الحال في كتاب منحنى الانقراض لجون فان دير فيلدن وروب وايت، الذي تم نشره في عام 2021.[23]

التأثيرات الكارثية لتغير المناخ وانهيار البيئة

المقالة الرئيسية: Effects of climate change

يمكن أن تتجمع التأثيرات الشديدة لتغير المناخ، بما في ذلك مع المخاطر المتزامنة غير المرتبطة بالمناخ مثل التلوث العالمي، والهشاشة، واستنزاف الموارد، والاستياء السياسي، والفقر أو عدم المساواة في التوزيع الثروة، ومخاطر التكنولوجيا الحيوية، لينتج تداخلاً من التطورات يتسبب في تفاقم تأثيراته بشكل جذري على المجتمعات أو البشرية - وتشارك في هذه الأزمات المتعددة المتزامنة أحياناً بمصطلح "عاصفة مثالية".[24][25][بحاجة لمصادر إضافية]يمكن اعتبار تغير المناخ أيضاً عاملًا مضاعفاً للتهديد "الذي يؤدي إلى تفاقم الاتجاهات والتوترات وعدم الاستقرار الحالي".[26]قد تتضمن عوامل التداعي المحتملة للانهيار المرتبط بالمناخ الجوع (فقدان المحاصيل، الجفاف)، والطقس المتطرف (الأعاصير، الفيضانات)، والحروب (المتسببة بندرة الموارد) والنزاع، والمخاطر النظامية (المتعلقة بالهجرة، الجوع، أو النزاع)، والأمراض.[1]

الغلاف الجوي

يقلل الاحترار العالمي من قدرة المحيطات على امتصاص الأكسجين. الدلائل البيولوجية والأدلة الجيولوجية تشير إلى أن المحيطات مفقودة الأكسجين نتيجة تركيزات عالية من ثاني أكسيد الكربون قد تسببت في الحدث السابق للانقراض الجماعي في تاريخ الأرض. اكتشف علماء الجيولوجيا أن الكائنات الدقيقة اللاهوائية قد ازدهرت في هذه الظروف وأنتجت كميات ضخمة من غاز كبريتيد الهيدروجين. كبريتيد الهيدروجين سام، ويزداد سميته مع ارتفاع درجة الحرارة. عند تجاوز عتبة حرجة، سيتم إطلاق هذا الغاز السام في الغلاف الجوي، مما يتسبب في انقراض النباتات والحيوانات سواء في المحيط وعلى اليابسة. تشير النماذج أيضاً إلى أن هذا قد يتسبب في تلف طبقة الاوزون، معرضاً الحياة على الأرض لمستويات ضارة من الإشعاع فوق البنفسجي. تقديم أدلة تشوهات وجدت في بقايا حيوانات ونباتات متحجرة في جرينلاند يشير إلى أن ذلك قد حدث أثناء حدث الانقراض البرمي. في نهاية عصور الپاليوسيني والثلاثي، حدثت الانقراضات الجماعية عند تركيزات ثاني أكسيد الكربون حوالي 1000 جزء في المليون. إذا تم الوصول إلى هذه التراكيز مرة أخرى في المستقبل، سواء نتيجة لانبعاثات غازات الاحتباس الحراري البشرية أو الطبيعية، فمن الممكن أن يتكرر مثل هذا الحدث.[27][28]

الأمراض

المقالة الرئيسية: Climate change and infectious diseases

ترتبط التغيرات المناخية بالأمراض المعدية، ومع تغير المناخ، يزيد خطر تفشي الأوبئة أو الجائحات العالمية. مع تغير المناخ، ينتشر منفذو الأمراض المعدية مثل البعوض والقراد إلى مناطق جديدة وينقلون الأمراض إلى مناطق قد لم تشهدها في السابق. كما يزداد احتمال حدوث وباء بعد حوادث الطقس الشديدة، مثل الأمطار الغزيرة أو الفيضانات. قد يؤدي نقص الغذاء إلى تحول بعض المجتمعات إلى اعتماد نظام غذائي أكثر اعتمادًا على اللحوم، مما يزيد من خطر تفشي أمراض مثل إيبولا. ويهدد ذوبان التربة الصقيعية أيضاً بإطلاق الأمراض التي كانت كامنة لسنوات عديدة ، كما كان الحال في أغسطس 2016 عندما أصابت جثة حيوان الرنة المذابة التي كان عمرها قرنًا من الزمان عدة أفراد في سيبيريا بالجمرة الخبيثة.[29]

ندرة الغذاء

للمزيد من المعلومات: Effects of climate change on oceans

العديد من النباتات لديها درجة حرارة قصوى يمكن أن تنمو عندها، وقد يعني التغير المناخ أن آفاتٍ جديدة قد تمثلت للمناطق التي كانت باردة جداً بالنسبة لها للبقاء على قيد الحياة في الماضي. ستؤثر الظواهر الجوية المتطرفة والجفاف المتكرر بشكل أيضٍ على إنتاج المحاصيل عندما ترتفع درجة حرارة الأرض إلى ما يقترب من 2 درجة مئوية (3.6 درجة فهرنهايت) فوق مستويات ما قبل الثورة الصناعية.[30]يمكن أن يؤدي الانخفاض العالمي في توافر الغذاء إلى تأثيرات خطيرة على الصحة العامة. إذا ارتفعت درجة حرارة الأرض إلى 2 درجة مئوية فوق مستويات ما قبل الثورة الصناعية بحلول عام 2050، تتوقع بعض النماذج أن تكون توافر الغذاء العالمي أقل بنسبة 3.2 في المئة مما لو لم يحدث تغير مناخي، مما يؤدي إلى وفاة 529,000 شخص إضافي حول العالم.[31][32]

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الوفيات بسبب الحرارة

للمزيد من المعلومات: Wet-bulb temperature § Wet-bulb temperature and health
يتوقع تقرير التقييم السادس للجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية، الصادر في عام 2021، زيادات متزايدة في كل من تكرار (الأعمدة الأفقية) وشدة (الأعمدة العمودية) الظواهر الجوية المتطرفة، مع زيادة درجات التغير المناخ العالمي، بما في ذلك زيادة أكثر من 5 درجات مئوية في حالات الحر الشديد لزيادة متوسط درجة الحرارة العالمية بمقدار 4 درجات مئوية.[33]
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النزوح الجماعي

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المناطق المتأثرة بشكل خاص

دراسة أجريت في عام 2020 تتوقع أن المناطق التي يعيش فيها ثلث سكان البشرية يمكن أن تصبح باردة بنفس درجة حرارة أجزاء الصحراء الأكثر سخونة خلال 50 عاماً من دون تغيير في أنماط نمو السكان ودون هجرة، ما لم يتم تقليل انبعاثات الغازات الدفيئة. ومن المتوقع أن تكون درجة الحرارة السنوية المتوسطة المتوقعة التي تزيد عن 29 درجة مئوية في هذه المناطق خارج "البيئة الحرارية للإنسان" - وهي نطاق مقترح للمناخ الملائم للإنسان من الناحية البيولوجية استناداً إلى البيانات التاريخية لمتوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية - وتمتلك المناطق الأكثر تأثراً بسعة تكيفية ضئيلة حتى عام 2020.[34][35]ووصل المكتب البريطاني للأرصاد الجوية إلى استنتاجات مشابهة، حيث أفاد أن "عدد الأشخاص في مناطق حول العالم المتأثرة بإجهاد الحرارة المفرطة - وهو توازن محتمل قاتل بين الحرارة والرطوبة - يمكن أن يزداد" من "68 مليون حالياً إلى مليار واحد تقريباً" إذا وصل ارتفاع درجة الحرارة العالمية إلى 2 درجة مئوية[36] على الرغم من عدم وضوح ما إذا كان هذا الحد أو هدف اتفاق باريس المحدد عند 1.5 درجة مئوية سيتحقق.

المجموعتان الرئيسيتان من التدخلات المحتملة هما التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ وبناء "قدرات أكبر ضمن السكان الضعفاء حتى يمكنهم التكيف من خلال وسائل لا تؤدي إلى الهجرة المؤلمة أو الصراع".[37]

الانقراض الجماعي

للمزيد من المعلومات: انقراض الهولوسيني

تخضع الأرض حالياً لحدث الانقراض الجماعي السادس نتيجة للأنشطة البشرية.[38][39]خلال انقراض العصر البرمي-الثلاثي قبل 250 مليون سنة، كانت درجة حرارة الأرض أعلى بحوالي 6 درجات مئوية من مستوى ما قبل الثورة الصناعية. في هذا الوقت، تم محو 95٪ من الأنواع الحية وانقرضت حياة البحر بسبب نقص الأكسجين في المحيط[2]خلال الحدث الجماعي السابق الذي وقع قبل حوالي 66 مليون سنة، تشير الأدلة إلى أن كويكباً أو قمراً اصطدم بالأرض، مغيراً المناخ بشكل جذري ومحواً الديناصورات وحوالي 75٪ من جميع أنواع النباتات والحيوانات على الكوكب.[40]

الكوارث الطبيعية

للمزيد من المعلومات: Effects of climate change § Weather-related changes

يزيد التغير المناخ من تكرار وشدة الظواهر الجوية المتطرفة بما في ذلك الجفاف، والعواصف، والفيضانات. على الرغم من عدم الإمكانية في تحديد ما إذا كانت كارثة طبيعية معينة قد حدثت بسبب التغير المناخ، إلا أنه من الممكن التأكيد على مدى ارتفاع احتمالية وقوع كارثة طبيعية بسبب التغير المناخ أو تقريبياً مقدار زيادة شدتها بسببه.[41][بحاجة لمصادر إضافية]

Sea-level rise

للمزيد من المعلومات: Sea level rise

As temperatures increase, glaciers and ice sheets melt and the ocean expands which causes a rise in sea levels. Sea levels have risen by about 23 cm since 1880 and are currently rising at around 3.2 mm each year.[42] It is difficult to predict amounts of sea-level rise over the next century, although the ice sheets are melting earlier than predicted which makes a high-end scenario of 2 metres of sea-level rise by 2100 increasingly plausible.[43] If the entire Greenland ice sheet were to melt, the world's oceans could rise by more than 6 metres.[44] In the past, at times when the Earth has been 6°C above the pre-industrial baseline, sea levels were 20 metres higher than today.[2] If all the ice on land and at the poles melted, sea levels would rise by more than 65 metres.[44] Rising sea levels result in forced migration and threaten services like the Internet, since much of the Internet's key infrastructure is built near coastlines and is not built to be permanently submerged in water.[45]

Water scarcity

للمزيد من المعلومات: § Food scarcity

Around 2% of the planet's water is fresh and approximately 70% of that is snow and ice, which turns into salt water as the Earth's temperatures increase, meaning that as glaciers melt many communities that rely on these sources for water will lose their supply. Climate change can also lead to heavier rainfall in some areas, leading to rapid movement of water to the oceans and reducing the capacity of people to use and store it. In other areas rainfall is reduced, and overall the world experiences more extreme floods and droughts as a result of climate change. Warmer air also results in higher rainfall and less snowfall and an increase in evaporation rates. Different regions will be affected to different degrees, but the IPCC predicts that around one billion people in dry areas of the world may face increasing water scarcity.[46][47]

Ocean acidification

This section is an excerpt from احمضاض المحيط.[تحرير]
Ocean acidification means that the average ocean pH value is dropping over time.[48]

Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's ocean. Between 1950 and 2020, the average pH of the ocean surface fell from approximately 8.15 to 8.05.[49] Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are the primary cause of ocean acidification, with atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeding 410 ppm (in 2020). CO2 from the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans. This produces carbonic acid (H
2CO
3) which dissociates into a bicarbonate ion (HCO−
3) and a hydrogen ion (H+
). The presence of free hydrogen ions (H+
) lowers the pH of the ocean, increasing acidity (this does not mean that seawater is acidic yet; it is still alkaline, with a pH higher than 8). Marine calcifying organisms, such as mollusks and corals, are especially vulnerable because they rely on calcium carbonate to build shells and skeletons.[50]

A change in pH by 0.1 represents a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration in the world's oceans (the pH scale is logarithmic, so a change of one in pH units is equivalent to a tenfold change in hydrogen ion concentration). Sea-surface pH and carbonate saturation states vary depending on ocean depth and location. Colder and higher latitude waters are capable of absorbing more CO2. This can cause acidity to rise, lowering the pH and carbonate saturation levels in these areas. Other factors that influence the atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchange, and thus local ocean acidification, include: ocean currents and upwelling zones, proximity to large continental rivers, sea ice coverage, and atmospheric exchange with nitrogen and sulfur from fossil fuel burning and agriculture.[51][52][53]

Shutdown of ocean currents

للمزيد من المعلومات: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past, most clearly recorded in climate records from glacial ice on Greenland. There have been several explanations put forward for these changes, but the prevailing paradigm is that these changes were a result of changes in ocean currents, specifically the northward transport of heat by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). One example of this is the Younger Dryas, in which a rapid decline in temperature, recorded in Greenland as a drop of 4 to 10°C (7.2 to 18°F) over just a few decades, is thought to have been caused by the melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet providing extra freshwater to the North Atlantic and interrupting the AMOC.[54]

It is believed that recent climate change has caused a 15-20% slowing of the Gulf Stream, a current which transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico towards north-west Europe, due to a melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet resulting in large amounts of freshwater pouring into the North Atlantic.[55] Although it is likely to continue to slow, it is unproven whether the Gulf Stream could come to a complete halt this century, if ever. However if it does, this would have profound impacts upon large parts of the Earth's climate. In the UK, for example, temperatures would drop by an average of 3.4°C (6.1°F) and more so in Scotland. Rainfall during the growing season would also drop by 123 mm. This would reduce the UK's arable land from 32 percent to just 7 percent and it is uncertain if there would be enough water to offset this through irrigation, resulting in food shortages.[56][57]

Societal collapse

للمزيد من المعلومات: Collapsology

Research has shown that aside from worsening income inequality and the strain of an increased population exceeding the carrying capacity of an environment, another important factor which may lead to global collapse is ecological strain. Climate change increases the strain on the planet's ecology, especially in terms of resource depletion.[58]

Climate change has contributed to the collapse of civilisations in the past. A 200-year drought caused cities of the Indus Valley civilisation to be abandoned; the Khmer Empire collapsed as a result of successive droughts and monsoon floods which led to political and social unrest; and a period of cooling called the Little Ice Age made it more difficult for Vikings to farm in Greenland, which was one of the reasons that they were forced to abandon their settlements.[44]

More recently, a severe drought in the late 2000s which is likely to have been intensified by anthropogenic climate change contributed to failing agricultural production in Syria, leading to high unemployment, large amounts of internal displacement, heightened ethnic tensions and increased violence. Poor governance and neoliberal economic policies also contributed to the resulting civil war and societal collapse in 2011.[58]

Although the entire planet is affected by climate change, the worst impacts will be felt by the world's poorest countries, and these countries are both more likely to face the effects of societal collapse and more likely to face such effects sooner. This is one of the moral issues described within the climate justice movement of climate change activism.[58]

As societal collapse becomes more likely, it is possible that denial and anti-intellectualism will increase as well, or that people will assign blame for the crisis on communities other than their own. As localised violence increases, societal collapse also becomes more likely.[58]


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War

المقالة الرئيسية: Climate security

The risk of global conflict, especially in more vulnerable regions, rises with global warming. Studies have shown that extreme weather events can damage economies, lower food production and raise inequality, which can increase risks of violence when combined with other factors. One study found that climate change has influenced between 3% and 20% of armed conflict in the last century, that an increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels more than doubles the current risk of conflict, increasing it to 13%, and that an increase of 4°C multiplies the risk by five, up to a 26% risk.[59]

A report by the Global Peace Index found that 971 million people lived in areas with either a high or very high climate change exposure and that 400 million of those people lived in countries with low levels of peacefulness. It warned that climate change can increase the likelihood of violent conflict by impacting upon resource availability, job security, and by causing forced migration.[60][61]

Scientists struggle to reach a consensus on the likelihood of war as a result of climate change as future climate change is likely to be very different from what humanity has experienced previously and the ability of societies to adapt is unclear.[59][62]

Research shortcomings

للمزيد من المعلومات: § Climate endgame

Large-scale changes to the Earth system such as tipping points and possible abrupt climate change are usually not included in climate models and impact assessments.[63] This means that many scientific reports, including the IPCC Assessment Reports, have often underestimated the impacts of climate change effects.[64]

Climate scientists may also downplay potentially disastrous scenarios in favor of more restrained predictions that are less likely to be rejected as alarmist or fatalist.[64] Discussions of "tail-end" risks of temperatures rising beyond 3°C (5.4°F) are also often neglected in research more generally.[65]

Rate of warming

Projected temperature and sea level rise under different scenarios based on different carbon dioxide concentrations in the air.

Current levels of global warming are often calculated in terms of the global average increase in the Earth's temperature compared with levels prior to the Industrial Revolution. In 2016, the Earth is likely to have reached 1.1°C (1.98°F) above pre-industrial levels.[66] The rate of global warming is influenced by the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, which has so far led to a linear increase in global warming. However global warming is non-linear, and is subject to acceleration when certain tipping points are crossed in the Earth's climate system, or as atmospheric pollution disappears from the atmosphere. These may also lead to abrupt climate change. As of November 2022, current global climate policies could take the planet to between 2.2°C and 3.4°C (3.96-6.12°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100, while current pledges and targets would take the planet to between 1.6°C and 2.5°C (2.88-4.5°F).[67]

If all of the fossil fuels on Earth were burned, lower-end estimates calculate that 5 trillion tonnes of carbon emissions would be released into the atmosphere, resulting in a possible 10°C of warming relative to 1986-2005 by the year 2300.[68][69]

Tipping points

للمزيد من المعلومات: Tipping points in the climate system

It is more likely that the Earth will cross tipping points and/or trigger abrupt climate change as it approaches and surpasses 2°C above pre-industrial levels.[63] Some of these tipping points may lead to accelerated global warming and runaway climate change. In the event that warming is limited to 2°C by 2100, these carbon cycle feedbacks could still cause an additional 0.24-0.66°C (0.432-1.188°F) of warming by that year. These tipping points could be triggered much earlier, and could continue to warm the planet for hundreds or even thousands of years.[70]

Global dimming

للمزيد من المعلومات: Global dimming

During the 1950s and 60s, scientists determined that the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth had dropped. This was labelled the global dimming effect and has since been proven to have a strong relationship to atmospheric pollution, the particles of which directly absorb energy from the sun before reflecting it back into space. This has many impacts including the cooling of the Earth and oceans leading to lower rainfall and more droughts. These pollutants also lead to the formation of smog and acid rain and cause various respiratory diseases. Global dimming may also cause heat waves and runaway fires, while the decrease of sunlight negatively impacts plant growth, endangering animal populations.[71]

As carbon emissions are reduced and the amount of pollution in the atmosphere disappears, the most widely credited studies indicate that there will be an increase of about 0.5°C in global average temperature, however some studies have indicated that up to 1.1°C is possible.[72][71] Some solutions to this dilemma would be to use natural geoengineering solutions such as mass rewilding and biochar alongside a reduction of carbon emissions. Other potential solutions could be much more dangerous and unpredictable, such as artificially injecting additional sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere.[73] This could lead to disproportionately negative impacts on certain regions over others, causing droughts, flooding or desertification.[74]

Climate collapse

Hothouse Earth

Trends in atmospheric CO2 and global temperature change showing no substantial impact of climate policies (which are the subject of governance- and policy-studies) so far.

A paper published in the journal PNAS in August 2018 entitled "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene" described a threshold which, if crossed, could trigger multiple tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops that would prevent stabilization of the climate, causing much greater warming and sea-level rises and leading to severe disruption to ecosystems, society, and economies. It described this as the "Hothouse Earth" scenario and proposed a threshold of around 2°C above pre-industrial levels, arguing that decisions taken over the next decade could influence the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years and potentially even lead to conditions which are inhospitable to current human societies. The report also states that there is a possibility of a cascade of tipping points being triggered even if the goal outlined in the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5-2.0°C (2.7-3.6°F) is achieved.[70]

Point of collapse

Even in mid-range scenarios of around 3°C above pre-industrial levels, extreme weather events, large-scale loss of agricultural land and freshwater sources, and collapsing ecosystems could lead to widespread suffering and instability and over a billion people who currently live in major coastal cities would need to be relocated due to sea-level rise. One report published by the Global Challenges Foundation wrote that the potential destruction of high-end scenarios are beyond their capacity to model, but that there is a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end. The report states that we are currently in a position where we can reduce the risk of civilization collapse due to climate change, and possibly avoid it.[65]

Although runaway climate change may be triggered at 2°C or even lower, societal collapse in different regions may not happen until later, although there is no consensus as to when this may happen. Some scientists and institutions such as the World Bank have argued that it is uncertain whether adaptation to a 4°C world is possible, and that such an increase in temperature is incompatible with an organised global community.[63][64][75]

Potential attempts to revert a started apocalypse

انظر أيضاً: Climate change mitigation

Grist advised that although some people describe an expectation of a horrible Climate Apocalypse, the effects of climate change could be lessened or worsened depending upon when a coordinated response to lessen the damage develops.[76]

KQED reported that the scientific consensus is to take whatever action possible, wherever possible, even when there are reports of a coming Climate Apocalypse.[77]

Scientists commenting in The Atlantic said that the Representative Concentration Pathway was an important measurement to watch, and that as of 2018 this measurement predicts a worst-case scenario for the world.[78]

Stratospheric aerosol injection, a hypothetical process for blocking sunlight from the earth, is proposed as a desperate technological response قالب:See above to reduce existential risk[79] which comes with many risks and is opposed by many scientists. [80]

Predictions

Some predictions say that things will get worse.[81]

What if we stopped pretending?

An article written for The New Yorker by Jonathan Franzen in September 2019 argued that those under the age of sixty at time of publishing were likely to see the radical destabilization of life on earth due to crop failures, fires, crashing economies, flooding, and hundreds of millions of climate refugees, while those under the age of thirty were almost certain to see it.[82] The article attracted huge controversy for arguing that humanity must now accept that a climate apocalypse is inevitable, and was heavily criticized for being defeatist, as well as for drawing false scientific conclusions that such a scenario was inevitable, rather than possible.[83][84]

The Age of Consequences

A report published in November 2007 by various authors including former director of the CIA R. James Woolsey Jr., former national security advisor to Al Gore Leon Fuerth, and former chief of staff for President Bill Clinton John Podesta entitled "The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change" describes both a "severe" and a "catastrophic" scenario in which global warming rise reaches 1.6°C (2.88°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2040 and 5.6°C (10.08°F) by 2100 respectively.[85]

In the "severe" scenario, nonlinear climate change has devastating impacts on society including a possible pandemic; societal instability due to large increases in migration and food and water shortages; threatened identities of global communities as a result of rising sea levels and coastal flooding; likely conflict over resources and possible nuclear war. The authors write that in this scenario climate change causes humanity to undergo a permanent shift in its relationship to nature.[85]

In the "catastrophic" scenario, the authors write that human society would struggle to adapt, and note that this scenario is so extreme that its impacts are difficult to imagine. The authors encourage readers to compare the scenario to the threat of terrorism, emphasising that the solution to both threats relies on a transformation of the world's energy economy.[85]

"The 2050 scenario"

In May 2019, Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration released a report which argued that climate change represents an existential threat to human civilisation in the near to mid-term, calling for a wartime level of response to combat it.[86] The report featured heavily in the media due to the gravity of its message.[87][88][89]

The report described a "2050 scenario" which the authors define as a way of thinking at the high-end of the range of possibilities rather than a scientific projection. Within this scenario, policy-makers fail to act sufficiently and global emissions do not peak until 2030. Climate feedbacks are triggered which lead to global warming of 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030, and 3°C by 2050, leading the Earth into the "hothouse Earth" scenario. Sea levels increase by 2-3 metres by 2100, with an eventual 25 metres of sea-level rise locked in. Some regions become unlivable due to the intense heat and lack of adaptive capacity and around a billion people are displaced, while two billion people suffer from water shortages. There is not enough food to feed the global population and many of the world's most populous cities are abandoned due to sea level rise.[86]

Famous figures

In an interview for The Ecologist, the Emeritus Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber warned that if we continue as we are now, then over the next century we may bring civilization to an end. He predicted that humans would survive somehow, but that almost everything which had been built up over the past two thousand years would be destroyed. He rated chances of success in the fight against climate change as more than 5% but definitely less than 50%.[90]

In his 2019 BBC documentary Climate Change – The Facts, Sir David Attenborough warns that dramatic action needed to be taken against climate change within the next decade to avoid irreversible damage to the natural world and the collapse of human societies.[91] In a 2019 Channel 4 interview with Jon Snow, Attenborough states that the worst outcome of climate change that could be experienced within the next seventy years would be civil unrest and mass migration on a great scale. He predicts that humans will continue to find enough food, but that their diets will be forced to change.[92]

Professor Emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School Jørgen Randers predicts that we will fail to meet the pledges of the Paris Agreement as in the short-term it is cheaper to continue acting as usual.[93]

As a lifelong environmentalist, King Charles has given speeches warning that climate change could bring unimaginable horrors and that it calls into question our future survival on the planet.[94]

Pope Francis has stated that climate change threatens the future of the human family and that we must take action to protect future generations and the world's poorest who will suffer the most from humanity's actions. He has also stated that our choice of energy has the potential to destroy our civilization and that this must be avoided.[95]

In an interview, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres warned that the world was losing the fight against climate change, and described lack of action on climate change as "suicide".[96]

In a September 2020 presentation to the United Nations, Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama described the present situation as an environmental armageddon.[97]

Narratives of climate change

Social critique of literature

Various academic publications describe how political discourse, the media, and scientific studies address the idea of a potential climate apocalypse.[98]

People in various cultures at various times have told stories about climate change.[99] Among all cultures and times which tell these stories, patterns in the stories which include questioning: whether humans caused the change, the relationship between short-term local experiences and longer term global records, people of common cultures producing images of climate change which align with others in their culture but not with those outside their culture, designating certain classes of institutions like laboratories as being reliable sources of information, and the modification of reliable reports to create a more desirable narrative of how the information ought to lead to a particular community changing their behavior.[99] Discussion of climate change is unusual for having attracted unusually diverse participation of communities which strongly present their own view. Those communities include citizens engaged in public participation, academic sectors, any non-academic professional sector asserting knowledge, participants in popular culture, advocates for Indigenous peoples, anyone negotiating the powers of the current and/or dominant economic and political systems, those practicing a religion, and anyone responding to public opinion.[99] Sources of information about climate change tell various categories of stories, including personal experiences, community experiences, scientific models, economic forecasts, and prophecies of apocalypse.[99]

Some researchers have speculated that society cannot comprehend an accurate end of the world prediction, and instead, more governments would be willing to respond productively to prevent catastrophe if reports framed the matter as a smaller problem than it actually is.[100] Talking about potential disaster can have a broad impact upon society by making many people feel that if the situation were truly horrible, then there must be good plans to prevent it so no further action is needed.[101]

As climate apocalypse becomes more real, the media presents many imagined apocalypse scenarios in a way that conflates them all.[102]

Contemporary narratives

Political conversations about climate apocalypse tend to describe how preventing it in the future would bring zero value for today, therefore the value of doing something today is zero.[103] The lack of response to climate change despite it being an existential risk may be an indication that human society lacks an ability to understand a threat of this magnitude without some radical change in perspective.[104]

Esquire described how since 1990 climate scientists have communicated urgent warnings while simultaneously experiencing the media converting their statements into sensational entertainment.[105]

A 2013 report described how incorporating the concept of preventing catastrophe into public policy seems unprecedented and challenging to accomplish.[106]

According to Professor Jem Bendell, Deep Adaptation is the concept purporting that humanity needs to prepare for fundamental disruption of its current civilisation paradigms, due to climate change, with a likelihood of complete societal collapse. Unlike climate change adaptation, which aims to adapt societies gradually to the effects of climate change, Deep Adaptation is premised on accepting abrupt transformation of the environment as a consideration for making decisions today.[107]

Following the August 2021 publishing of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Catholic Priest Thomas J. Reese advocated for the church leadership to speak in favor of strong action to prevent climate apocalypse.[108]

In popular culture

للمزيد من المعلومات: Global warming in popular culture

Climate fiction is a popular media genre which frequently features stories of climate apocalypse. Examples include Ishmael, a 1992 philosophical novel,[109] and Mad Max: Fury Road, a 2015 action film.[110][111][112]

Concern over a climate apocalypse has been the subject of satirical news articles. One theme is popular revolt against power brokers. Another is the desire of youth to have a liveable environment in adulthood.[113][114] Another are fantasies about the romance and adventure of people experiencing the chaos of ecological and societal collapse.[115][116]

See also

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Further consideration

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