استطلاع رأي
استطلاع الرأي opinion poll، أو اختصاراً الاستطلاع poll، هو مسح للرأي العام عن طريق جمع عينة محددة. استطلاعات الرأي عادة ما يتم تصميمها لتظهر آراء السكان عن طريق طرح سلسلة من الأسئلة ثم استقراء الأغلبية العامة من الأجوبة على شكل نسبة أو داخل فواصل الثقة.
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التاريخ
العينة وطرق الاستطلاع
استطلاعات قياسية
Brushfire polls
استطلاعات التتبع
احتمالية عدم الدقة
التحيز لعدم الإجابة
التحيز للإجابة
صياغة الأسئلة
التحيز للتغطية
الفشل
التأثير
على الناخبين
على السياسيين
التنظيم
انظر أيضاً
- Deliberative opinion poll
- Entrance poll
- Everett Carll Ladd
- Exit poll
- الاستطلاعات التاريخية للانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية
- قائمة منظمات الاستطلاع
- Open access poll
- Push poll
- استفتاء
- مركز روپر لأبحاث الرأي العام
- Sample size determination
- Straw poll
الهوامش
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المصادر
- Asher, Herbert: Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know, fourth edition. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 1998.
- Bourdieu, Pierre, "Public Opinion does not exist" in Sociology in Question, London, Sage (1995).
- Bradburn, Norman M. and Seymour Sudman. Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us (1988).
- Cantril, Hadley. Gauging Public Opinion (1944).
- Cantril, Hadley and Mildred Strunk, eds. Public Opinion, 1935-1946 (1951), massive compilation of many public opinion polls from US, UK, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere.
- Converse, Jean M. Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890-1960 (1987), the standard history.
- Crespi, Irving. Public Opinion, Polls, and Democracy (1989).
- Gallup, George. Public Opinion in a Democracy (1939).
- Gallup, Alec M. ed. The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935-1997 (1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results.
- Gallup, George Horace, ed. The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935-1971 3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll.
- Glynn, Carroll J., Susan Herbst, Garrett J. O'Keefe, and Robert Y. Shapiro. Public Opinion (1999) textbook
- Lavrakas, Paul J. et al. eds. Presidential Polls and the News Media (1995)
- Moore, David W. The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America (1995).
- Niemi, Richard G., John Mueller, Tom W. Smith, eds. Trends in Public Opinion: A Compendium of Survey Data (1989).
- Oskamp, Stuart and P. Wesley Schultz; Attitudes and Opinions (2004).
- Robinson, Claude E. Straw Votes (1932).
- Robinson, Matthew Mobocracy: How the Media's Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections, and Undermines Democracy (2002).
- Rogers, Lindsay. The Pollsters: Public Opinion, Politics, and Democratic Leadership (1949).
- Traugott, Michael W. The Voter's Guide to Election Polls 3rd ed. (2004).
- James G. Webster, Patricia F. Phalen, Lawrence W. Lichty; Ratings Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Audience Research Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2000.
- Young, Michael L. Dictionary of Polling: The Language of Contemporary Opinion Research (1992).
مراجع إضافية
- Walden, Graham R. Survey Research Methodology, 1990-1999: An Annotated Bibliography. Bibliographies and Indexes in Law and Political Science Series. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc., 2002. xx, 432p.
- Walden, Graham R. Public Opinion Polls and Survey Research: A Selective Annotated Bibliography of U.S. Guides and Studies from the 1980s. Public Affairs and Administrative Series, edited by James S. Bowman, vol. 24. New York, NY: Garland Publishing Inc., 1990. xxix, 360p.
- Walden, Graham R. Polling and Survey Research Methods 1935-1979: An Annotated Bibliography. Bibliographies and Indexes in Law and Political Science Series, vol. 25. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc., 1996. xxx, 581p.
وصلات خارجية
- Polls from UCB Libraries GovPubs
- The Pew Research Center nonpartisan "fact tank" providing information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world by conducting public opinion polling and social science research
- "Use Opinion Research To Build Strong Communication" by Frank Noto
- Public Agenda for Citizens nonpartisan, nonprofit group that tracks public opinion data in the United States
- National Council on Public Polls association of polling organizations in the United States devoted to setting high professional standards for surveys
- How Will America Vote Aggregates polling data with demographic sub-samples.
- USA Election Polls tracks the public opinion polls related to elections in the US
- Survey Analysis Tool based on A. Berkopec, HyperQuick algorithm for discrete hypergeometric distribution, Journal of Discrete Algorithms, Elsevier, 2006.
- "Poll Position - Issue 010 - GOOD", track record of pollsters for USA presidential elections in Good magazine, April 23, 2008.
- MakeAPoll.net - A Popular free online Poll maker