الأزمة المالية الأيرلندية 2008-2010

Sticker on van window in Dublin with comment on banking crisis
هذه مقالة تفصيلية عن الأزمة المالية في أيرلندا وتأثيراتها. لسلسلة فضائح البنوك الأيرلندية، انظر أزمة البنوك الأيرلندية 2008–2010.

الأزمة المالية الأيرلندية 2008–2010' 2008–2010 Irish financial crisis، هي أزمة اقتصادية كبرى جارية في أيرلندا وهي مسئولية جزئية عن حالة الركود الذي مرت بالبلاد في فترة الثمانينيات. أعلنت الحكومة الأيرلندية رسميا عن حالة الركود في سبتمبر 2008، مع حدوث ارتفاع حاد في معدل البطالة في الأشهر التالية. كانت أيرلندا أول دولة في منطقة اليورو تدخل في حالة الركود حسب مكتب الاحصائيات المركزي.[1]

في يناير 2009 ارتفع عدد الأشخاص المطالبين باعانات البطالة إلى 326,000، ويعد هذا أعلى معدل شهري منذ بدء الاحتفاظ بالسجلات في 1967.[2] في سياق الأزمة، والتي تزامنت مع سلسلة فضائح البنوك، هبط الحزب الحكام فيانا فال إلى المركز الثالث حسب استطلاعات الرأي التي أجرتها إيريش تايمز. وجاء الحزب وراء فاين گيل والعمل، الذي جاء ترتيبه قبل فيانا لأول مرة.

ودفعت للضغوط الاقتصادية إلى خروج 120,000 متظاهر في شوارع دبلن في 21 فبراير 2009، وسط مزيد من التهديدات بالتظاهرات والإضرابات. The Dublin's ISEQ index had reached 10,000 points briefly in April 2007. But on 24 February 2009, it fell over 3% to stand at 1,987 points, a 14-year low.[3] The last time it stood under the 2,000 level was the middle of 1995.[3] This occurrence followed the unexpected resignation of former Anglo Irish Bank director Anne Heraty from the board of the Irish Stock Exchange the night before.[4]

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الخلفية والأسباب

The Irish economy expanded rapidly during the Celtic Tiger years (1995–2007) due to low ECB interest rates among other causes. This led to an expansion of credit and included a property bubble which began to end in 2007. Irish banks, already over-exposed to the Irish property market, came under severe pressure in September 2008 due to the global financial crisis of 2007–2010.


التأثير

Government finances began to show signs of trouble in mid-2008. Government deficits increased, many businesses closed and unemployment increased. The Irish Stock index (ISEQ) fell. Many immigrant workers left, and the financial regulator resigned.

البنك الأنگلو أيرلندي

Anglo Irish Bank was particularly exposed to the Irish property bubble. A hidden loans controversy in December 2008 led to a further drop in its share price.

النمو والبطالة

The Irish economy entered severe recession in 2008. Ireland officially left recession in the first quarter of 2010.

Ireland entered into an economic depression in 2009.[5] The Economic and Social Research Institute predicted an economic contraction of 14% by 2010.[6] In the first quarter in 2009, GDP was down 8.5% from the same quarter the previous year, and GNP down 12%.[7] Unemployment is up 8.75%[8] to 11.4%.[9][10] The economy exited recession in the third quarter of 2009, with GDP growing by 0.3% in the quarter, but GNP continued to contract, by 1.4%.[11]

سوق العقارات

Due to the ending of the bubble, the residential and commercial property markets went into a severe slump with both sales and property values collapsing.

Developers such as Liam Carroll began to fall behind on their loan repayments. Due to the financial crisis, banks such as ACC pushed for their revenue recovery and requested liquidation of the development firms.

الهجرة

According to some sources[12], about 65,000 people left Ireland in 2009, and some estimate that the number may be more like 120,000 in 2010. At first, most of those leaving were immigrants returning home to Central Europe. But in time, the Irish themselves started heading out. The number of people signing up for unemployment benefits dropped about 3% in October 2010, prompting the government to announce this as a sign of an improving economy. But opposition parties quickly disputed that claim, attributing this change to the increased rate of emigration.[13]

مسئوليات الحكومة

الميزانية الحكومية الطارئة يوليو 2008

للمزيد من المعلومات: [[:تدعايات ميزانية الحكومة الأيرلندية 2008]]

Ireland officially declared it was in a recession in September 2008. Prior to this declaration, the Irish government announced, on 3 September 2008, that it was to bring forward the 2009 government budget from its usual December date to 14 October 2008.[14] In a statement, the government claimed that this was largely due to a decrease in the global economy.[15] The budget, labelled "the toughest in many years",[16] included a number of controversial measures such as a proposed income levy which was eventually restructured,[17] and the withdrawal of previously promised HPV vaccines for schoolgirls.[18][19][20][21][22] Other results of the budget included a new income levy being imposed on all workers above a specified threshold and the closure of a number of military barracks near the border with Northern Ireland.[23][24][25][26][27]

An unexpected public outcry was invoked over the proposed withdrawal of medical cards and the threatened return of university fees. A series of demonstrations ensued amongst teachers and farmers,[28][29][30][31][32][33] whilst on 22 October 2008, at least 25,000 pensioners and students descended in solidarity on government buildings at Leinster House, Kildare Street, Dublin.[34] Some of the pensioners were even seen to cheer on the students as the protests passed each other on the streets of Dublin.[35] Slogans such as "no cutbacks, no fees, no Fianna Fáil TDs" and "education is a right not a privilege" have since become commonplace in student protests against the government organised by the Union of Students in Ireland (USI) and the newly formed Free Education for Everyone (FEE), as have puns on the then Minister for Education and Science Batt O'Keeffe.[36][37] Changes to education led to a ministerial meeting with three Church of Ireland bishops[38] who were assured by O'Keeffe that religious instruction would be unaffected by the budget changes.[39]

Rebellion within the ranks of the ruling coalition government led to a number of defections of disenchanted coalition members. County Wicklow TD, Joe Behan resigned from the Fianna Fáil party in protests at the proposed medical card changes after suggesting that past taoisigh Éamon de Valera and Seán Lemass "would be turning in their graves at the decisions made in the past week".[40] Independent Deputy Finian McGrath then threatened to withdraw his support for the government unless the plan to remove the overs 70s automatic right to a medical card was withdrawn completely.[41] Taoiseach Brian Cowen postponed a planned trip to الصين, sending Minister for Education and Science Batt O'Keeffe ahead to lead the delegation.[42] Behan, alongside McGrath and former government minister Jim McDaid,[43][44][45][46] later voted against his former colleagues in two crucial Dáil votes on medical cards and cancer vaccines. These defections reduced the Irish government's majority of twelve by one quarter.

A supplementary budget was delivered in April 2009 to address a fiscal shortfall of over €4.5 billion.[47]

الاضرابات والاضطرابات الصناعية (2009)

اعتصام عمال واترفورد كريستال

On 30 January 2009, the jobs of Waterford Crystal employees such as this glass blower were placed under threat.

On 5 January 2009, Waterford Wedgwood entered receivership.[48] On 30 January, workers at the Waterford Crystal plant in Kilbarry were told they would be losing their jobs. A statement issued by the receiver, Deloitte's David Carson, confirmed that, of the 670 employees, 480 of them would be laid off.[49] The workers responded angrily to this unexpected decision and at least 100 of them began an unofficial sit-in in the visitors' gallery at the factory that night.[49] They insisted they would refuse to leave until they had met with Carson.[49] Following the revelations, there was a minor scuffle during which the main door to the visitors' centre was damaged.[49] Local Sinn Féin Councillor Joe Kelly was amongst those who occupied the visitors' gallery.[49] A meeting held the following day did little to resolve the conflict,[50] with the sit-in continuing for almost two months until 22 March.[51]


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تقييمات موافقة الحكومة

The ruling Fianna Fáil party fell to third place in a national opinion poll published in The Irish Times on 13 February 2009.[52] The party placed behind Fine Gael and Labour, the latter of which rose above Fianna Fáil for the first time in history.[53] A further opinion poll, published in the Irish Independent on 27 February, indicated that only 10% of voters were satisfied with the Government's performance, that over 50% would like an immediate general election and confirms the sudden collapse in support for Fianna Fáil.[54]

المظاهرات العامة

انظر أيضاً: مظاهرة الطلاب في دبلن 2010 and March for a Better Way
2009 مظاهرة الأزمة المالية الأيرلندي في دبلن

On 18 February 2009, 13,000 civil servants voted for industrial action over a proposed pension levy.[55] They effected this action on 26 February.[56]

Days earlier, as many as 120,000 people, had protested on the streets of Dublin on 21 February.[2][57] This was followed by a further march through the capital by gardaí on 25 February[58] and a lunch-time protest by 10,000 civil servants on 19 March 2009.[59] This was followed by two separate taxi drivers' protests in Dublin on 20 March 2009.[60]

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has stated his belief that a national strike would serve the country no good.[61] The strike was later called off.[بحاجة لمصدر]

دعم النظام المصرفي

Increase in individual deposit account guarantee to €100,000 (in summer 2008?)

Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Act 2008 - emergency Government guarantee for six banks in October 2008.

Nationalisation of Anglo Irish bank in Jan 2009. Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Bill 2009.

Recapitalisation of other banks in Feb 2009.

الوكالة الوطنية لادارة الأصول

In April 2009, the government proposed a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) to take over large loans from the banks, enabling them to return to normal liquidity to assist in the economic recovery.

زيادة الديون

The costs of the bank rescues,[بحاجة لمصدر] NAMA and a large public sector borrowing requirement to fund current and capital spending has led by late 2010 to a per capita external debt of over $535,000. This represents some 1,305% of Ireland's annual GDP, making it the second-most indebted country in the world,[62] after Luxembourg.[63]

صفقة الإنقاذ

On the evening of 21 November 2010, the Taoiseach Brian Cowen confirmed that Ireland had formally requested financial support from the European Union's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF),[64] a request which was welcomed by the European Central Bank and EU finance ministers.[65] The request was approved in principle by the finance ministers of the eurozone countries in a telephone conference call.[66] Details of the financial arrangement were not immediately agreed upon, and remained to be determined in the following weeks,[67] though the bailout was believed to be in the region of €100 billion (£85.4B), of which approximately €8 billion (£7B) was expected to be provided by the United Kingdom.[65]

Following criticism of the action,[68] the Green Party leader John Gormley signalled that his party would seek to have a General Election in January, with the implicit threat being that they would pull out of Government; with the addition of a number of Independent Government T.D.s declaring that they would not continue to support the Government and speculation mounting, Brian Cowen called a press conference in which he announced that the Government intended to introduce and pass that year's Budget, and its constituent parliamentary bills, before having a new-year election.[69]

However, on 23 November, rebel members of Brian Cowen's ruling Fianna Fáil party and opposition leaders sought no-confidence vote for the Government and dissolution of the Oireachtas before a crucial budget vote on 7 December 2010, that should open the way for adopting the rescue package.[70]

المصادر

  1. ^ CSO - Central Statistics Office Ireland
  2. ^ أ ب "Huge protest over Irish economy". BBC. 2009-02-21. Retrieved 2009-02-21.
  3. ^ أ ب "ISEQ falls to 14-year low". RTÉ. 2009-02-24. Retrieved 2009-02-24.
  4. ^ "Anglo Irish Bank offices were searched". RTÉ. 2009-02-24. Retrieved 2009-02-24.
  5. ^ "Ireland 'technically' in depression - The Irish Times - Wed, May 20, 2009". Archived from the original on 2009-06-02. Retrieved 2009-05-26. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  6. ^ ESRI predicts 14% economic decline over three years
  7. ^ Kelleherpau. "National Accounts NIE quarte..." Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-07-24. Retrieved 2009-06-30. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  8. ^ Unemployment reaches 11% in Ireland
  9. ^ McDonald, Henry (29 April 2009). "Ireland's unemployment rises to 11.4%". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 20 December 2009.
  10. ^ "Irish unemployment at fresh highs". BBC News. 1 April 2009. Retrieved 20 December 2009.
  11. ^ Fottrell, Quentin (17 December 2009). "Irish GDP Rises 0.3% but Crisis Lingers". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 20 December 2009.
  12. ^ The Hunt for Jobs Sends the Irish Abroad, Again, New York Times
  13. ^ Ireland crisis: 'I cannot wait to get away', BBC
  14. ^ "Budget moved to October amid economic gloom". The Irish Times. 2008-09-03. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  15. ^ "Government statement on Budget 2009". The Irish Times. 2008-09-03. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  16. ^ "Ministers prepare for toughest budget in years". The Irish Times. 2008-10-09. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  17. ^ "Govt planning 3% income levy on high earners". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-17. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  18. ^ "8,000 back cancer vaccine on Facebook". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-24. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  19. ^ Vousden, Petrina (2008-12-17). "Cervical cancer vaccine for Ireland's girls: online poll slams decision to pull funding". London: Irish Daily Mail. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
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  22. ^ "Govt lambasted for scrapping cervical-cancer plan". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-06. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  23. ^ "O'Dea says sale of Army properties a possibility". The Irish Times. 2008-10-09. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  24. ^ "Four army barracks, military hospital to be closed". Irish Independent. 2008-10-15. Retrieved 2009-01-09. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  25. ^ "The closure of Rockhill Army Barracks". Damien Blake. 2008-10-17. Retrieved 2009-01-09.[dead link]
  26. ^ "Date set for Army barracks closures". Irish Independent. 2009-01-09. Retrieved 2009-01-09. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  27. ^ "Army barracks face closure in savage Budget cutbacks". Irish Independent. 2008-10-06. Retrieved 2009-01-09. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  28. ^ "Teachers and parents to protest at education cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-15. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  29. ^ "Protest in Donegal over education cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-29. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  30. ^ "Department of Education rolls back on Budget cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-12-12. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  31. ^ "Thousands to protest education cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-12-06. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  32. ^ "Offaly farmers protest over Budget cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-29. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  33. ^ "IFA: We won't accept Budget cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-30. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  34. ^ "'Maybe this is what the revolution looks like,' says onlooking TD". The Irish Times. 2008-10-23. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  35. ^ "Thousands march in day of anti-Budget protests". The Irish Times. 2008-12-23. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  36. ^ "Students to protest against threat of fees reintroduction". Irish Independent. 2008-10-22. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  37. ^ "10,000 students take to streets". The Irish Times. 2008-10-23. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  38. ^ "COI bishops to meet Education Minister over Budget cuts". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-12. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  39. ^ "O'Keeffe reassures on religious instruction". The Irish Times. 2008-11-13. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  40. ^ "Behan resigns in protest at Budget". RTÉ. 2008-10-17. Retrieved 2009-01-07.
  41. ^ "McGrath threatens to withdraw over card move". RTÉ. 2008-10-18. Retrieved 2009-01-07.
  42. ^ "Cowen calls for more time on cards row". RTÉ. 2008-10-19. Retrieved 2009-01-07.
  43. ^ "McDaid refuses to back Government on cancer vaccine vote". The Irish Times. 2008-11-13. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  44. ^ "Debate on Cervical Cancer Vaccine". Damien Blake. 2008-11-13. Retrieved 2009-01-07.[dead link]
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  46. ^ "FF claims Cowen still strong despite third defection". Irish Examiner. 2008-11-14. Retrieved 2009-01-07. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  47. ^ Kilian Doyle (4 March 2009). "Lenihan says fiscal shortfall may be €4.5bn". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2009-03-07.
  48. ^ "Waterford Wedgwood in receivership". RTÉ. 2009-01-05. Retrieved 2009-02-24.
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  51. ^ "Occupation of Waterford Crystal centre ends". RTÉ. 2009-03-22. Retrieved 2009-03-27.
  52. ^ "Labour surge past FF in latest poll". RTÉ. 2009-02-12. Retrieved 2009-02-13.
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  54. ^ "10% satisfied with Govt performance". RTÉ. 2009-02-26. Retrieved 2009-02-26.
  55. ^ "13,000 civil servants vote for strike action". RTÉ. 2009-02-18. Retrieved 2009-02-26.
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  59. ^ "10,000 Civil servants stage lunchtime protest". RTÉ. 2009-03-19. Retrieved 2009-03-19.
  60. ^ "Taxi drivers hold Dublin protests". RTÉ. 2009-03-20. Retrieved 2009-03-20.
  61. ^ "Gilmore in appeal over planned strike". RTÉ. 2009-03-22. Retrieved 2009-03-22.
  62. ^ CNBC slideshow of the 20 most indebted countries; accessed October 2010
  63. ^ World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010, International Monetary Fund. Accessed on November 23, 2010.
  64. ^ Ireland confirms EU financial rescue deal, BBC News, 21 November 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11807730 .
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  67. ^ "Ireland Asks for Aid From Europe, Minister Says", New York Times, 21 November 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/22/business/global/22debt.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw .
  68. ^ Was it for this? - The Irish Times - Thu, Nov 18, 2010
  69. ^ Irish Aid Bid Prompts Moody's Warning, Threat of Elections - Bloomberg
  70. ^ Political Turmoil Deepens in Ireland, New York Times
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