الانتخابات الرئاسية التايوانية 2024

الانتخابات الرئاسية التايوانية 2024
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Opinion polls
  Lai Ching-te election infobox.jpg Hou Yu-ih election infobox.jpg
المرشح Lai Ching-te Hou Yu-ih
الحزب Democratic Progressive Party Kuomintang
  柯文哲 IMG 9322-1 (14300234412) (cropped 2).jpg Terry Gou election infobox.jpg
المرشح Ko Wen-je Terry Gou
الحزب Taiwan People's Party مستقل
Running mate Lai Pei-hsia
ROC-county-division-blank.svg
Republic of China by administrative divisions.
Incumbent President

Tsai Ing-wen
Democratic Progressive Party



Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Republic of China (Taiwan) on 13 January 2024.[1][2] Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The ruling DPP nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te in March 2023, having already secured the party chairmanship by acclamation. New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) was selected to be the party’s presidential nominee in May 2023. Despite previously saying he would support Hou’s nomination, businessman Terry Gou declared his own independent bid in September 2023. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has nominated its leader, Ko Wen-je, the former Mayor of Taipei.

On 15 November 2023, leadership of the KMT and the TPP announced that they would field a single joint presidential ticket, with the parties' previously chosen nominees serving as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The order is to be chosen based on opinion polls and publicly announced on 18 November. [3]

Domestic issues, such as energy policy, national defense and economic development have featured as campaign issues in the election, coupled by foreign issues mostly concerning Taiwan’s Cross-Strait relations with Mainland China, and relations with the United States.[4][5]

As of 14 November 2023, four presidential candidates have been nominated by a party or qualified as an independent, making the election the most contested since 2000. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.

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Background

Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent President of the Republic of China is ineligible to seek re-election after serving two consecutive terms.

Presidential candidates and Vice Presidential running mates are elected on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post voting. This will be the eighth direct election of the president and vice president, the posts having previously been indirectly elected by the National Assembly until 1996.


Eligibility

According to the constitution, the incumbent President, Tsai Ing-wen, who will finish her second full term, is ineligible for re-election. Under the Article 22 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and New Power Party (NPP), which received more than five per cent of the total vote share in any of the latest general election (presidential or legislative), are eligible to contest the election. Registration with the Central Election Commission as the candidates for President and Vice President is filed by the way of political party recommendation where a letter of recommendation stamped with the political party's seal issued by the Ministry of the Interior shall be submitted together with the application. Under Article 23, independent candidates and smaller parties are also eligible to contest, registering as the candidates for President and Vice President by the way of joint signature shall, within five days after the public notice for election is issued, apply to the Central Election Commission for being the presenter recommended by way of joint signature, receive a list of joint signers and to receive 1.5 per cent of the total electors in the latest election of the members of the Legislative Yuan, and pay the deposit of NT$1,000,000.[6][البحث الأصلي؟] For the 2024 presidential election, the number of signatures required for independent candidates is approximately 290,000.[7] The complete petition is to be submitted between 13 and 17 September 2023, and the signature collection period follows from 17 September to 2 November 2023.[8] Presidential candidacies are to be formally registered between 20 and 24 November 2023.[9]

Timetable

Key Dates
Date Event
15 March 2023 The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially nominates Vice President Lai Ching-te as the party's

presidential nominee.

8 May 2023 The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) officially nominates former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je as the party's

presidential nominee.

17 May 2023 The Kuomintang Party (KMT) officially nominates New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih as the party's

presidential nominee.

28 August 2023 Businessman Terry Gou declares his candidacy for the Presidency as an independent.
12 September-4 December 2023 Accepting applications for the election of the President and Vice President and registration of electors who return to the country to exercise their right to vote.
14 September 2023 Terry Gou selects actress Lai Pei-hsia as his running mate.
13 November 2023 Gou qualifies to run in the presidential election.
13 November 2023 The KMT and TPP agree to use polling to determine the formation of a joint-ticket.
14 November 2023 Announcement of the signature results of the presidential and vice presidential election.
13 January 2024 Voting will be held from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.
20 May 2024 The next President will be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.

Nominations

Democratic Progressive Party

Incumbent president, two-time Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee, and former Chair of the DPP, Tsai Ing-wen is ineligible to run, having completed two consecutive terms. Tsai resigned as DPP Chair in 2022, following the party’s poor performance in the local elections of that year.[10] After Tsai’s resignation, Vice President Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai) was unanimously elected to succeed her as Chair of the DPP.[11] Lai was previously selected to be Tsai’s running mate after she defeated him in the 2020 primary.[12] No primary was held, and Lai Ching-te, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party.[13][14][15]

In November 2023, it was reported that Lai was considering selecting Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s envoy to the United States, as his running mate.[16]

Nominees

Green Island with White Cross.svg
2024 Democratic Progressive ticket
Lai Ching-te TBD
for President for Vice President
副總統賴清德官方肖像.jpg
Vice President of the Republic of China
(2020–present)

Kuomintang

Hou Yu-ih, the Mayor of New Taipei since 2018, was drafted by the Kuomintang on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency.[17] Hou faced opposition from Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who vowed to support him as the KMT’s nominee.[18]

In late 2023, the KMT and fellow opposition party Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) began talks concerning the possibility of a joint presidential ticket; many in either party considered a joint ticket to be the best chance of toppling the DPP from power.[19] It is unclear if Hou will remain as the presidential nominee with Ko Wen-je of the TPP as his running mate.[20] Both parties agreed to use polling to determine the ticket's composition on 13 November, but the rules of the polling remain unknown.[21]

Nominees

Emblem of the Kuomintang.svg
2024 Kuomintang ticket
Hou Yu-ih TBD
for President for Vice President
侯友宜市長肖像.jpg
Mayor of New Taipei
(2018–present)

Taiwan People's Party

Ko Wen-je, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Taiwan People's Party.[22][23] On 13 November, the TPP and KMT agreed to use national polling to determine the composition of a joint-ticket, the rules of the polling remain unknown however.[21]


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Nominees

Emblem of Taiwan People's Party 2019 Logo Only.svg
2024 Taiwan People's ticket
Ko Wen-je TBD
for President for Vice President
柯文哲 IMG 9322-1 (14300234412) (cropped 2).jpg
Mayor of Taipei
(2014–2022)

Other parties and independents

All independent and minor party candidates need a minimum of 290,000 signatures to register with the Central Election Commision.[24]

Terry Gou

Billionaire businessman Terry Gou, who founded the global technology manufacturing company Foxconn in 1974, declared his own presidential run as an independent candidate on 28 August 2023.[25] This was despite previously stating he would support Kuomintang nominee Hou Yu-ih. The KMT described Gou’s announcement as ‘deeply regrettable’.[26] Lai Ching-te welcomed Gou’s entrance into the race, saying he would be happy to take on the challenge.[27] Gou was the first of the mainstream candidates to announce his running mate; he selected actress Lai Pei-hsia (otherwise known as Tammy Lai) as his running mate on 14 September.[28] Lai had previously played a fictional Taiwanese presidential candidate on a Chinese-language Netflix series, Wave Makers.[29] Gou’s campaign was mired by allegations that it was buying signatures.[30] By November 2023, at least 20 separate investigations into fraudulent practices and signature forgeries were opened.[31] 7 people were arrested in what was described as a ‘signature-buying scheme’ a few weeks earlier.[32] Gou denied these allegations, and claimed that individuals who were buying signatures were acting on their own accord and were not part of his official campaign. Gou submitted his signatures on 1 November 2023.[33] On 13 November, over 900,000 of Gou’s submitted signatures were validated by the election commission, qualifying him to run the presidential election.[34]

Independent candidate icon 3200001.svg
2024 Independent politician ticket
Terry Gou Lai Pei-hsia
for President for Vice President
TerryGou (cropped).jpg
12／5 ≋ 賴佩霞 ≋ 《轉念的力量》新書分享會，台中場(cropped).jpg
Founder and CEO of Foxconn
(1974–2019) 		Writer, singer, actor

Withdrawn candidates

Disqualified candidates

Election campaign

Throughout the election campaign, almost all polls have showed Vice President William Lai winning the election by a plurality (~32%), with the rest of the vote being split between the KMT and TPP.[36] Lai’s chances of winning increased in September 2023, when Terry Gou announced his own independent bid for the presidency.[37] In August 2023, amid campaiging, Lai Ching-te went to Paraguay for an official visit in his capacity as Vice President, with two stopovers in the United States.[38] Lai insisted he was not campaigning during the trips.[39] In late October, China opened an investigation into Foxconn, after Chinese tax authorities conducted an audit of the company’s subsidies in the Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.[40]

Possible KMT–TPP joint ticket

In late 2023, talks of a possible joint ticket between the KMT and TPP began.[41] It was initially unclear if the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je will join as a ticket, let alone who will be the nominee for president and vice president once a joint ticket was announced.[42] The DPP’s Lai stated he would be able to take on the challenge of a joint ticket, and critized the pan-blue coalition plans, arguing the two parties do not share enough similarity in ideology.[43] In November, Ko said that deciding who would lead the ticket as the presidential nominee was the ‘only hurdle’ remaining in forming the ticket.[44] On 13 November, the KMT and TPP agreed to use polling to determine the composition of the joint presidential ticket.[21]

Opinion polling

Local regression of polls conducted since 2023
Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided
Formosa 24–25 October 2023 1,070 32.5% 21.9% 20.4% 5.3% 19.9%
1,070 33.7% 24.6% 23.9% N/A 17.8%
TVBS 18–24 October 2023 1,447 33% 22% 24% 8% 14%
34% 26% 29% N/A 10%
TPOF 15–17 October 2023 1,080 26.5% 20.2% 21.7% 12.4% 19.1%
1,080 29.7% 21.1% 25.6% N/A 23.6%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 2023 1,072 32.3% 17.8% 23.2% 9.2% 17.4%
1,072 32.1% 18.7% 24.8% N/A 24.4%
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023 1,582 34.7% 27.4% 25.5% N/A 12.3%
RW NEWS 10–14 October 2023 11,055 42.62% 22.29% 24.93% 5.86% 4.30%
11,055 42.85% 22.87% 26.09% N/A 8.20%
SETN 1–3 October 2023 1,000 30.9% 17.8% 24.2% 11.6% 15.5%
1,000 32.2% 20.0% 26.8% N/A 21.1%
TVBS 22–26 September 2023 1,127 34% 21% 22% 9% 14%
36% 26% 28% N/A 11%
udn 22–25 September 2023 1,082 30% 20% 21% N/A 30%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 2023 1,096 34.5% 16.5% 24.1% 8.5% 16.3%
1,096 33.3% 16.4% 28.0% N/A 22.3%
ETtoday 1,368 32.0% 24.5% 20.7% 13.2% 9.6%
FTNN 19–24 September 2023 2,402 34.3% 16.3% 18.6% 9.1% 21.7%
FTNN 2,402 34.9% 16.8% 20.8% N/A 27.5%
CMMedia 18–22 September 2023 1,213 27.9% 12.6% 22.4% 12.5% 24.6%
Formosa 20–21 September 2023 1,072 37.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.4% 18.7%
1,072 40.0% 22.4% 21.6% N/A 15.9%
TPOF 18–20 September 2023 1,077 31.4% 15.7% 23.1% 10.5% 19.4%
1,077 33.4% 17.2% 27.4% N/A 22.1%
RW NEWS 12–16 September 2023 10,846 42.52% 22.25% 24.23% 6.58% 4.41%
KPOINT SURVEY & RESEARCH 12–14 September 2023 1,073 29.4% 18.4% 16.7% 14.0% 21.5%
1,073 29.2% 21.5% 19.6% N/A 29.7%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023 1,337 35.1% 24.8% 20.0% 12.9% 7.2%
1,337 36.5% 29.5% 22.9% N/A 11.0%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 2023 1,273 30% 19% 23% 14% 13%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023 1,495 35.3% 21.4% 17.6% 17.2% 8.4%
Mirror Media 27–28 August 2023 1,083 33.4% 15.3% 22.7% 12.9% 15.7%
1,083 34.3% 16.2% 27.1% N/A 22.4%
Formosa 23–24 August 2023 1,070 40.1% 15.6% 16.6% 12.0% 15.8%
1,070 42.5% 17.0% 21.1% N/A 19.3%
TVBS 21–24 August 2023 1,171 37% 22% 28% N/A 13%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 2023 1,222 35.6% 16.2% 24.4% 12.4% 11.4%
1,222 35.8% 17.9% 29.6% N/A 16.6%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023 1,207 35.4% 25.6% 24.2% N/A 14.9%
RW NEWS 15–19 August 2023 11,324 40.56% 22.16% 23.13% 8.96% 5.18%
RW NEWS 11,324 40.99% 22.79% 25.80% N/A 10.12%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023 1,235 31.7% 18.6% 17.5% 10.2% 22.0%
TPOF 14–15 August 2023 1,081 43.4% 13.6% 26.6% N/A 16.3%
FTNN 9–13 August 2023 2,402 31.2% 14.8% 19.5% 11.8% 22.7%
2,402 33.4% 15.9% 23.2% N/A 27.4%
KPOINT SURVEY & RESEARCH 31 July – 2 August 2023 1,075 30.3% 15.1% 18.2% 14.8% 21.6%
1,075 32.3% 15.8% 23.1% N/A 28.8%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023 1,402 30.46% 16.92% 24.71% 17.34% 10.58%
1,402 29.46% N/A 26.23% 26.31% 18.0%
Newtalk 1,402 33.5% 21.4% 29.57% N/A 15.53%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023 1,753 33.4% 21.0% 21.6% 16.4% 7.7%
ETtoday 1,753 35.6% 24.3% 28.8% N/A 11.3%
TVBS 24–26 July 2023 1,618 33% 25% 32% N/A 10%
Formosa 24–25 July 2023 1,071 33.1% 17.3% 20.7% 12.8% 16.1%
1,071 35.1% 19.9% 24.0% N/A 20.4%
1,071 33.8% 17.4% N/A 30.7%[45] 18.1%
TISR 19–20 July 2023 1,068 29.0% 13.2% 17.7% 10.7% 4.0%
1,068 33.8% 15.6% 24.9% N/A 6.0%
TPOF 17–18 July 2023 1,088 36.4% 20.2% 27.8% N/A 15.7%
TPOF 1,088 33.9% 18.0% 20.5% 15.2% 12.4%
RW NEWS 12–16 July 2023 12,464 38.23% 20.39% 25.29% 9.22% 6.87%
RW NEWS 12,464 38.48% 21.29% 28.34% N/A 11.89%
FTNN 11–16 July 2023 2,409 28.0% 12.4% 20.4% 14.4% 24.8%
FTNN 2,409 30.2% 15.3% 25.4% N/A 29.1%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023 1,003 33.6% 14.8% 21.1% 12.5% 18.0%
1,003 32.4% 17.6% 25.9% N/A 24.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 2023 1,178 34.8% 19.3% 30.8% N/A 15.0%
1,178 32.8% N/A 27.7% 24.5% 15.0%
1,178 33.8% 17.0% N/A 35.6%[45] 13.6%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023 1,070 34.9% 14.5% 19.2% 14.6% 16.8%
1,070 35.5% 17.2% 24.2% N/A 23.1%
Z.Media 1–2 July 2023 1,079 29.8% 15.2% 24.4% 14.0% 16.2%
1,079 32.0% 16.3% N/A 35.8%[45] 15.5%
1,079 29.9% 16.0% 29.8% N/A 23.8%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 2023 1,075 31% 15% 19% 15% 20%
1,075 34% 17% 25% N/A 24%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023 3,245 28.26% 14.63% 21.94% 22.29% 12.89%
3,245 28.49% N/A 24.07% 28.77% 18.67%
Newtalk 1,070 32.77% 21.31% 30.74% N/A 15.19%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 2023 1,816 29.3% 18.5% 30.8% N/A 21.4%
Formosa 28–29 June 2023 1,070 33.3% 15.6% 20.9% 15.4% 14.8%
1,070 35.9% 17.1% 28.6% N/A 18.4%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 2023 1,083 31.89% 17.93% 24.62% N/A 21.97%
TVBS 14–16 June 2023 1,080 30% 23% 33% N/A 14%
TPOF 12–13 June 2023 1,080 36.5% 20.4% 29.1% N/A 14.0%
RW NEWS 6–10 June 2023 12,030 37.8% 21.9% 31.3% N/A 9.1%
KPOINT SURVEY & RESEARCH 6–9 June 2023 1,076 31.2% 17.9% 21.5% N/A 29.4%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 2023 1,077 35.7% 25.9% 24.9% N/A 13.5%
Formosa 29–30 May 2023 1,072 35.4% 22.6% 25.5% N/A 16.5%
Formosa 24–25 May 2023 1,072 35.8% 18.3% 25.9% N/A 20%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023 1,223 36.4% 27.7% 23.1% N/A 12.8%
NCPF 22–24 May 2023 1,082 34% 23% 23% N/A 20%
Fount Media 22–23 May 2023 1,074 26.6% 24.7% 21.1% N/A 27.6%
udn 18–21 May 2023 1,090 28% 24% 22% N/A 27%
SETN 17–18 May 2023 1,080 29.8% 29.2% 20.8% N/A 20.2%
TVBS 17–18 May 2023 1,444 27% 30% 23% N/A 20%


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الملاحظات

المصادر

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  42. ^ "Presidential candidate choice 'only hurdle' left for joint ticket: Ko - Focus Taiwan". Focus Taiwan - CNA English News (in الإنجليزية الأمريكية). 2023-11-07. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  43. ^ "Ko slams Hou's urgent call for joint ticket 'forced marriage' - Focus Taiwan". Focus Taiwan - CNA English News (in الإنجليزية الأمريكية). 2023-10-24. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  44. ^ "Presidential candidate choice 'only hurdle' left for joint ticket: Ko - Focus Taiwan". Focus Taiwan - CNA English News (in الإنجليزية الأمريكية). 2023-11-07. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  45. ^ أ ب ت Ko as VP.

قالب:Republic of China presidential elections

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