الانتخابات الرئاسية النيجيرية 2023

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الانتخابات الرئاسية النيجيرية 2023
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الولاية الأم كانو آدماوة
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محمد بخاري
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الانتخابات الرئاسية النيجيرية 2023، عُقدت في 25 فبراير 2023[أ] لانتخاب رئيس ونائب رئيس نيجيريا.[1] الرئيس الحالي محمد بخاري من حزب مؤتمر عموم التقدميين فترة ولايته محدودة ولا يمكنه السعي فترة رئاسية ثالثة.

هناك انتخابات فيدرالية أخرى، بما في ذلك انتخابات مجلس النواب ومجلس الشيوخ، ستُجرى أيضًا في نفس التاريخ بينما ستجرى الانتخابات الولائية بعد أسبوعين من ذلك في 11 مارس. سيتم تنصيب الفائزين في الانتخابات يوم 29 مايو 2023، وهو التاريخ السابق ليوم الديمقراطية.

أجريت الانتخابات التمهيدية للحزب بين 4 أبريل و9 يونيو 2022 حيث رشح حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي نائب الرئيس السابق عتيقو أبو بكر في 28 مايو بينما رشح مؤتمر جميع التقدميين حاكم ولاية لاگوس السابق بولا تينوبو في 8 يونيو.[2][3] بالنسبة لحزب العمال وحزب الشعب النيجيري الجديد الأقل تمثيلاً، تم ترشيح حاكم ولاية أنامبرا پيتر أوبي السابق في 30 مايو وترشيح حاكم ولاية كانو رابيو كوانكواسو في 8 حزيران، على التوالي.[4][5] في الأسابيع التي أعقبت الانتخابات التمهيدية، أُعلن عن مرشحي نائب الرئيس مع اختيار أبو بكر الحاكم إفياني أوكوا في 16 يونيو بينما اختار خصومه الرئيسيون مبدئيًا زملائهم في الانتخابات قبل استبدالهم في وقت لاحق بالمرشحين الرئيسيين.[6][7][8] اختار أوبي عضو مجلس الشيوخ السابق يوسف داتي بابا أحمد في 8 يوليو، واختار تينوبو عضو مجلس الشيوخ قاسم شتيما في 10 يوليو، واختار كوانكواسو القس إسحاق إيداهو في 14 يوليو.[9][10]


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خلفية

بعد الفترة الرئاسية الأولى لمحمد بخاري، فاز بإعادة انتخابه للمنصب كمرشح لحزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين بفوزه على عتيقو أبو بكر من حزب الشعب الديمقراطي بهامش 14 نقطة مئوية - ما يقرب من 4 ملايين صوت. بالنسبة للانتخابات التشريعية، عزز حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين أغلبيته في كل من مجلسي النواب والشيوخ بعد خسارة الأغلبية تقريبًا بسبب الانشقاقات عام 2018. على مستوى الولاية، حصل حزب الشعب الديمقراطي على ولايتين إجمالاً حيث حصل الحزب على أربع ولايات من حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين بينما حصل حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين على ولايتين من حزب الشعب الديمقراطي. خلال العامين الأولين من فترة 2019-2023، توسع حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين بشكل طفيف من خلال انشقاقات العشرات من مشرعي الولايات والمشرعين الفيدراليين وثلاثة حكام - ديڤ أوماهي حاكم ولاية إيبوني، بنديكت عيادي حاكم ولاية كروس ريڤر، وبلو محمد ماتوال حاكم ولاية زامفارا - لكنهم مروا بأزمة قيادة مطولة؛[11] بالنسبة لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي، كانت الخسائر من خلال الانشقاق أثرها لكن الحزب حل أزمة قيادته وعقد مؤتمرًا سلميًا.[12] خلال النصف الثاني من المدة، أصيب كلا الحزبين بالانشقاقات لكن حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين عقد مؤتمره الذي تأجل لفترة طويلة وخضع حزب الشعب الديمقراطي للخلافات العامة حول عدم تحديد مناطق ترشيحه للرئاسة.

قبل فترة ولاية بخاري الثانية، تضمنت وعوده الانتخابية استكمال خطوط السكك الحديدية قيد التنفيذ ومشاريع البنية التحتية الأخرى، وزيادة إشراك المرأة في الحكومة، وإصلاح التعليم، وزيادة مبادرات مكافحة الفساد.[13]

من حيث أدائه، أشيد بالإدارة لتحسين قطاع الزراعة، وإنهاء مشاريع البنية التحتية، والتقدم الناجح في الحرب ضد الإرهابيين في شمال شرق البلاد، وتأمين عودة الأموال العامة المنهوبة سابقًا من في الخارج ورفع الحد الأدنى للأجور.[14][15][16][17][18][19][20] ومع ذلك، فقد واجه انتقادات لتخليه عن مبادرات مكافحة الفساد، وتدني مستوى المعيشة، والوضع الأمني المتردي بشكل متزايد خارج شمال شرق البلاد (توسع أنشطة قطاع الطرق وبعض الإرهابيين في شمال غرب البلاد، نزاعات مزارع الرعاة والنزاعات العرقية في شمال وسط البلاد، القرصنة وعصابات سرقة الوقود في دلتا النيجر، والحركة الانفصالية العنيفة في جنوب شرق البلاد جنبًا إلى جنب مع الاختطاف على مستوى البلاد ووحشية قوات الأمن)، وزيادة الديون الوطنية.[21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][استشهاد مفرط]

تعرض بخاري أيضًا لانتقادات لقيامه بفرض حظر على تويتر لسبعة أشهر بعد أن أزال الموقع تغريدة مسيئة نشرها تشير إلى الحرب الأهلية؛ استنكر الحظر باعتباره محاولة فاشلة للرقابة.[38] كان أحد المصادر الرئيسية الأخرى للجدل هو تعامل الإدارة مع موجة الاحتجاجات في أكتوبر 2020 لحركة إنهاء سارس مع الانتقادات الأكبر التي ظهرت بشأن مذبحة ليكي عندما قتل جنود في لاگوس حاول العديد من المتظاهرين السلميين قبل الجيش والإدارة إنكار وقوع إطلاق النار على الإطلاق.[39]

كان على بخاري أيضًا أن يتعامل مع ترتيب موافقة متقلب، ولكنه منخفض باستمرار.[40]


النظام الانتخابي

يُنتخب رئيس نيجيريا باستخدام نظام الاقتراع على دورتين المُعدل. ليتم انتخابه في الجولة الأولى، يجب أن يحصل المرشح على أغلبية الأصوات وأكثر من 25% من الأصوات في 24 من من 36 ولاية على الأقل. إذا لم يتجاوز أي مرشح هذه العتبة، تُجرى جولة ثانية بين المرشح الأعلى والمرشح التالي الذي حصل على أغلبية الأصوات في أكبر عدد من الولايات.

الانتخابات التمهيدية

كان من المقرر إجراء الانتخابات التمهيدية، إلى جانب أي تحديات محتملة للنتائج الأولية، بين 4 أبريل و3 يونيو 2022 لكن تم تمديد الموعد النهائي إلى 9 يونيو.[1][41] يحدد التقسيم غير الرسمي للمناطق الجنوبية، الذي يُعرف باتفاق السادة (المناطق الجيوسياسية الجنوب شرقية والجنوب جنوبية والجنوب غربية) أن يكون الرئيس القادم شمالي حيث أن بخاري تم انتخابه مرتين. يدعو مؤتمر غير رسمي آخر إلى أن يكون للمرشحين نواب الرئيس من منطقة ودين مختلفين. على الرغم من هذا الترتيب، لم تغلق معظم الأحزاب رسميًا انتخاباتها التمهيدية أمام المرشحين غير الجنوبيين أو حددت رسميًا أن قوائمها الانتخابية لا يمكن أن تضم شريكين انتخابيين من نفس الدين.

في العام الذي يسبق الانتخابات التمهيدية، أجرى كل من حزب الشعوب الديمقراطية وحزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين مناقشات داخلية ساخنة حول تقسيم المناطق والقوائم الانتخابية لمرشحين من نفس الدين. على الرغم من المؤتمر غير الرسمي، رفض حزب الشعب الديمقراطي تحديد منطقة ترشيحه رسميًا في أوائل مايو 2022 قبل أن يخالف اتفاقية ترشيح الشمالي عتيقو أبو بكر كما رفض مؤتمر جميع التقدميين تحديد منطقة ترشيحه رسميًا ولكنه عين لاحقًا جنوبيًا، بولا تينوبو، ليكون حامل علمه.[42][43] مع ذلك، خالف مؤتمر جميع التقدميين الاتفاقية الرئيسية الأخرى باختياره قائمة انتخابية دينية واحدة. ولم يفعل حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي ذلك.

مؤتمر جميع الديمقراطيين

الانتخابات الرئاسية التمهيدية لمؤتمر جميع الديمقراطيين 2022
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المرشح بولا تينوبو روتيمي أمايتشي يمي أوسينباجو
الحزب APC APC APC
الولاية الأم لاگوس ريڤرز أوگون
التصويت Popular 1.271 316 235
النسبة 60.5% 15.0% 11.2%
Elected المرشح الرئاسي

بولا تينوبو
APC

مع انتخاب محمد بخاري للرئاسة مرتين، لم يكن مؤهلاً لإعادة الترشيح. في يوليو 2021، أيد رئيس حكومة تصريف الأعمال المؤقت آنذاك وحاكم ولاية يوبي ماي مالا بوني طريقة الإجماع لتسمية مرشح رئاسي بدلاً من الأساليب الأولية المباشرة أو غير المباشرة الأكثر شيوعًا ولكن لم يتوصل الحزب إلى قرار بشأن الطريقة الأولية في ذلك الوقت.[44] خلال فترة ولاية بوني كرئيس انتقالي من 2020 حتى 2022، قام بحملة مكثفة لأعضاء حزب الشعب الديمقراطي البارزين للانضمام إلى حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين، مما أضعف كتلة المعارضة في الجمعية الوطنية واكتسب ثلاثة حكام - ديڤ أوماهي حاكم ولاية إيبوني وبندكت أيادى حاكم ولاية كروس ريڤر وبلو متولي حاكم ولاية زمفارا - عامي 2020 و2021. ومع ذلك، كان أداء حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين الانتخابي ووحدة الحزب أكثر اختلاطًا حيث جاء في المركز الثالث في انتخابات حاكم ولاية أنامبرا 2021[ب] وكان لا يزال يعاني من الاقتتال الداخلي.[45]

تم تأطير الانتخابات التمهيدية لمؤتمر جميع التقدميين في السياق الأوسع للخلافات الحزبية الداخلية الناشئة عن تشكيل الحزب عام 2013 وما قبل أزمات الحزب في انتخابات 2019 إلى إزاحة قيادة الحزب عام 2020، والمؤتمرات الحزبية المثيرة للجدل لعام 2021. واعتبرت قدرة لجنة تصريف الأعمال الوطنية لحزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين على حل الفصائل الحزبية في الدولة وتنظيم المؤتمر الوطني للحزب 2022 بشكل صحيح أمرًا حيويًا لكل من الفرص الرئاسية للمؤتمر جميع التقدميين ومستقبله كحزب.[46] بعد عدة تأجيلات، عُقد المؤتمر بنجاح في 26 مارس 2022 على الرغم من بعض الجدل حول طريقة الإجماع المستخدمة في معظم مكاتب الحزب.[47][48]

فيما يتعلق بالتقسيم إلى مناطق، لم يكن هناك اتفاق رسمي مُعلن عن تقسيم المناطق لترشيح حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين على الرغم من الدعوات من بعض السياسيين وجماعات المصالح مثل منتدى حكام الجنوب لتحديد منطقة الترشيح في الجنوب حيث تم انتخاب بخاري الشمالي مرتين.[49][50] في مواجهة مؤيديهم، كان المرشحون المحتملون من الشمال ومنتدى حكام الشمال، الذين لم يعارضوا الرئاسة الجنوبية ولكنهم اختلفوا في البداية مع التقسيم الرسمي للمناطق.[51] من ناحية أخرى، كان هناك عدد قليل من المؤيدين لبطاقة دينية واحدة، ومعظمهم من مؤيدي وحلفاء المرشح النهائي بولا تينوبو الذين جادلوا بأن هناك عددًا قليلاً من السياسيين المسيحيين الشماليين المنتمين إلى حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين الذين يمكن أن يكون شريكه في الانتخابات.[52]

عارض حلفاء مرشحون محتملون آخرون وجماعات أخرى مثل الجمعية المسيحية في نيجيريا بشدة فكرة وجود بطاقة دينية واحدة على أساس الوحدة الوطنية والوئام الديني.[53][54]

في 20 أبريل 2022، أعلنت اللجنة التنفيذية الوطنية لمؤتمر جميع التقدميين عن الجدول الزمني للحزب للانتخابات الرئاسية التمهيدية وأن الانتخابات التمهيدية ستستخدم الطريقة الأولية غير المباشرة. حدد الإعلان سعر استمارة الإعراب للحزب عند 30 مليون₦ وسعر نموذج الترشيح عند 70 مليون₦ مع خصم 50% على استمارة الترشيح للمرشحين الذين تقل أعمارهم عن 40 عامًا بينما تحصل النساء والمرشحون من ذوي الإعاقة على استمارات ترشيح مجانية. كان من المقرر بيع النماذج من 26 أبريل إلى 6 مايو حتى تم تمديد الموعد النهائي لاحقًا إلى 10 مايو ثم 12 مايو.[55] بعد تقديم استمارات الترشيح بحلول 13 مايو، كان من المقرر فحص المرشحين من قبل لجنة حزبية في 24 و25 مايو ولكن تأخر ذلك عدة مرات حتى تتم عملية فحص الطعن بعد ذلك.[56][57][58] تم تأجيل مؤتمرات وارد ومؤتمرات LGA في الفترة ما بين 12 و14 مايو لانتخاب "مندوبين مخصصين" للانتخابات التمهيدية. كان على المرشحين الذين تمت الموافقة عليهم من خلال عملية الفرز التقدم إلى مجموعة أولية في 30 مايو و1 يونيو لكن الحزب أخر الانتخابات التمهيدية إلى 6-8 يونيو.[59][60][61][62]

قبل الانتخابات التمهيدية، ظهر الجدل حول الناخبين المحتملين بسبب التداعيات القانونية لقانون الانتخابات المعدل. بعد سنوات من النقاش والضغط العام، وقع بخاري قانونًا انتخابيًا جديدًا في يناير 2022 أدى إلى إصلاح جذري للأنظمة الانتخابية والانتخابية لكل من الانتخابات التمهيدية والعامة. كان أحد الإصلاحات استبعاد "المندوبين القانونيين" بحكم المنصب - الآلاف من شاغلي المناصب الحاليين والسابقين - من التصويت في الانتخابات التمهيدية للحزب. قالت قيادة الجمعية الوطنية إن الاستبعاد كان غير مقصود وفي مايو، أقرت NASS تعديلاً على القانون للسماح للمندوبين القانونيين بالتصويت في الانتخابات التمهيدية.[63]

ومع ذلك، رفض بخاري التوقيع على التعديل ليصبح قانونًا، مما أجبر حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين على منع المندوبين القانونيين فجأة من التصويت. لم يمنع هذا الإجراء بخاري وغيره من أصحاب المناصب رفيعي المستوى من التصويت فحسب، بل قلل بشكل كبير عدد المندوبين من أكثر من 7800 إلى 2322 فقط "مندوبًا مخصصًا" منتخبًا.[64][65][66]

سيطرت أسئلة حول المرشحين الرئيسيين وتأييد بخاري على فترة ما قبل المرحلة التمهيدية. من بين المرشحين المُعلنين رسمياً، اعتبر المحللون خمسة متنافسين رئيسيين: روتيمي أماشي وزير النقل السابق حاكم ولاية ريڤر، كايود فايمي حاكم ولاية إكيتي، أحمد لاوان رئيس مجلس الشيوخ، ييمي أوسينباجو نائب الرئيس، بولا تينوبو حاكم ولاية لاگوس سابقًا؛ ومع ذلك، ظهرت مفاجأتان محتملتان: الرئيس السابق گودلك جوناثن ومحافظ البنك المركزي گودوين إميفييل.

المجموعات التي تشتري النماذج نيابة عن إميفيل وجوناثن إلى جانب أشهر من التكهنات حول ترشيحاتهم أدت إلى شائعات عن مؤامرة لفرض أحدهما كمرشح على الرغم من عدم التحيز المفروض قانونًا من مكتب إميفييل وعضوية جوناثان في حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي؛ لم يؤت أي من الترشيحات ثمارها حيث رفض جوناثان الاستمارات بينما أُجبر إميفييل على الانسحاب بسبب الضغط العام.[67]

كان السؤال الرئيسي الآخر هو تأييد بخاري. على الرغم من شهور من الجدل على أنه لن يفكر في الانتخابات التمهيدية، قبل حوالي أسبوع من الانتخابات التمهيدية، عقد بخاري اجتماعًا مع حكام حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين حيث طلب منهم دعم مرشحه المفضل.[68][69]

ظهرت تقارير أنه بينما وافقت الغالبية العظمى من المحافظين، رفض قلة منهم الاقتراح أو لم يوضحوا موقفهم.[70] كانت نقطة الخلاف الأخرى هي فحص المرشحين الذي غالبًا ما يتم تأجيله، حيث قامت لجنة بقيادة رئيس مؤتمر جميع التقدميين السابق جون أوديگي أويگون بتصفية جميع المرشحين الثلاثة والعشرين لكنها أوصت فقط بثلاثة عشر مرشحًا لمواصلة حملاتهم بسبب فرصهم المتصورة في الفوز.[71][72]

في الأيام التي سبقت الانتخابات التمهيدية مباشرة، أصدرت الغالبية العظمى من حكام حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين في الشمال خطابًا لدعم مرشح جنوبي حيث طلبوا أيضًا من المرشحين الشماليين الانسحاب؛ رداً على ذلك، انسحب مرشح شمالي واحد من الانتخابات التمهيدية.[73]

في وقت لاحق من ذلك اليوم (4 يونيو 2022)، عقد بخاري اجتماعًا مع معظم مرشحي مؤتمر جميع التقدميين حيث ورد أنه دعم بشكل خاص مرشحًا من الجنوب وأخبر المرشحين بإيجاد مرشح إجماعي فيما بينهم.[74]

ومع ذلك، في 6 يونيو - قبل يوم من التصويت الأولي، أخبر رئيس حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين عبد الله أدامو الشمالي أن مرشح الحزب (وبخاري) التوافقي سيكون لاوان؛ قوبل الإعلان بمعارضة من قبل المحافظين وأعضاء آخرين في لجنة العمل الوطنية للحزب مما دفع الحزب إلى التراجع والادعاء أن أدامو كان يعبر عن رأيه الشخصي.[75][76][77][78]

في نفس اليوم، صرح بخاري أنه لم يكن لديه مرشح معين في الانتخابات التمهيدية.[79]

ثم في وقت مبكر من يوم الانتخابات التمهيدية، قدم حكام حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين وحزب NWC توصية مشتركة لخمسة مرشحين جنوبيين - أمايتشي، وفايمي، وأوسينباجو، وتينوبو، وديڤ أوماهي حاكم ولاية إيبوني - إلى بخاري بينما طلب الطامحين الآخرين الانسحاب من السباق.[80]

وأصدر سبعة مرشحين آخرين بيانًا مشتركًا يرفضون القائمة المختصرة بينما كتب المرشحون الجنوبيون الستة رسالة إلى بخاري يطالبون فيها بتخصيص منطقة الترشيح إلى جنوب شرق.[81][82]

في يوم الانتخابات التمهيدية، اجتمع المندوبون في ساحة النسر، أبوجا للاعتماد والتصويت. كان الجزء الأول من التمرين محاطًا بمسائل لوجستية حيث كانت هناك تأخيرات كبيرة في اعتماد كل من المندوبين والصحفيين إلى جانب نشر الأمن للغاز المسيل للدموع لتفريق الحشود.[83][84][85]

في غضون ذلك، داخل الساحة، اتخذ أفراد لجنة الجرائم الاقتصادية والمالية مواقف لمنع الرشوة قبل أن يلقي المرشحون خطاباتهم النهائية أمام المندوبين قبل التصويت.[86]

خلال هذه الخطب، ستة مرشحين - گودسويل أكبابيو، إيبيكونلى أموسون، ديمجي بانكولى، روبرت أجايي بوروفيس، فايمي، أوجو كندي أوهانيه - تنحى عن منصبه لصالح تينوبو ومرشح آخر - نيكولاس فيليكس - انسحبوا من قائمة أوسينباجو بينما أصدر المرشحون الباقون وعودًا ومقترحات لحملاتهم المرتقبة.[87] بعد خطابات المرشح وخطاب بخاري، بدأ التصويت في الصباح الباكر من يوم 8 يونيو وبعد ساعات من التصويت، تم جدولة الأصوات علنًا.[88]

عند اكتمال الترتيب، ظهر بولا تينوبو كمرشح بعد أن أظهرت النتائج فوزه بنسبة 60٪ من الأصوات بهامش 45٪ على أمايتشي الذي جاء في المركز الثاني.[89][90][3] في خطاب القبول الذي ألقاه، شكر تينوبو فريقه بينما كان يتحدث بنبرة تصالحية فيما يتعلق بخصومه السابقين.[91] لاحظ تحليل ما بعد المرحلة التمهيدية عدة أسباب محتملة لفوز تينوبو، وهي: تركيز المرشحين الآخرين على تأييد بخاري الذي لم يأتِ أبدًا، وفشل خطة الخلافة التي وضعها بخاري، والرشوة، وانسحاب اللحظة الأخيرة.[92][93][94]

بعد أسبوع من الانتخابات التمهيدية استندت إلى البحث عن شريك تينوبو الانتخابي، حيث كان تينوبو مسلمًا جنوبيًا، كان من المتوقع أن يكون زميله في الترشح مسيحيًا شماليًا، لكن الجدل ظهر عندما أعلن بعض السياسيين البارزين في حزب مؤتمر جميع الديمقراطيين عن انفتاحهم على بطاقة إسلامية مسلمة.[95][96]

مع اقتراب الموعد النهائي، طرح الحزب اسم كبير إبراهيم مساري - سياسي وعامل حزبي من ولاية كاتسينا - كعضو نائب لمرشح نائب الرئيس ليتم استبداله في وقت لاحق.[8] في 10 يوليو، انسحب إبراهيم المساري وأعلن تينوبو قاسم شيتيما - عضوًا في مجلس الشيوخ وحاكم ولاية بورنو - نائبًا له بعد اجتماع مع بخاري في دورا.[97][10]

خرقًا لاتفاقية البطاقة المخالفة لنفس الدين، جادل تينوبو في بيان أن "الدين ... لا يمكنه دائمًا تحديد طريقنا بشكل كامل" وأنه اختار "الرجل الذي يمكنه مساعدتي في تحقيق أفضل حكم لجميع النيجيريين، بغض النظر عن من انتمائهم الديني "وقارنوا البطاقة بآخر بطاقة لمسلمي اليوروبا والكانوري المسلمين الناجحة للمرشحين م. ك. أو. أبيولا - بابا جانا كينجيبي في انتخابات 1993.[98] سخر المعارضون، مثل الجمعية المسيحية في نيجيريا وجماعات المجتمع المدني، من الاختيار باعتباره مثيرًا للانقسام في وقت عصيب للوحدة النيجيرية.[99][100] لاحظ المحللون أن التقارير السابقة قبل ترشيح تينوبو قالت إن دائرته المقربة لا تعتقد أن مسيحيًا شماليًا سيساعد الحزب في الولايات ذات الأغلبية المسلمة، وبالتالي يجب اختيار مواطن مسلم.[101][102]


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المرشحون

المستبعدون في المرحلة التمهيدية

مرشحون منسحبون


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رُفضوا

النتائج التمهيدية

حصة التصويت للمرشح

  بولا تينوبو (60.47%)
  روتيمي أمايتشي (15.03%)
  يمي أوسينباجو (11.18%)
  أحمد لاوان (7.23%)
  مرشحون آخرون (6.09%)
النتائج التمهيدية لمؤتمر جميع التقدميين[3]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
APC بولا تينوبو 1,271 60.47%%
APC روتيمي أمايتشي 316 15.03%
APC يمي أوسينباجو 235 11.18%
APC أحمد لاوان 152 7.23%
APC يحيى بلو 47 2.24%
APC ديڤ أوماهي 38 1.81%
APC بندكت أيادى 37 1.76%
APC أحمد ساني يريما 4 0.19%
APC أوگبونايا أونو 1 0.05%
APC تشوكويمكا نواجيوبا 1 0.05%
APC توندى بكارى 0 0.00%
APC تاين جاك-ريتش 0 0.00%
APC إكيوباسي موكلو 0 0.00%
APC روشاس أوكوروتشا 0 0.00%
الاجمالي 2٬102 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 13 N/A
الإقبال 2.322 91.09%

حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي

الانتخابات التمهيدية الرئاسية لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي 2022
→ 2019 28 مايو 2022 2027 ←
Turnout98.43%
  Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg
Wike
 Bukola Saraki (cropped).jpg
المرشح عتيقو أبو بكر نيوسم ويكى بوكولا ساراكي
الحزب Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria) Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria) Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)
الولاية الأم أداماوة ريڤرز كوارا
التصويت Popular 371 237 70
النسبة 49.3% 31.5% 9.3%
Elected Presidential Nominee

عتيقو أبو بكر
Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)

في أكتوبر 2021، دعم رئيس حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي المنتخب حديثًا إيورتشيا أيو الطريقة الأولية غير المباشرة لترشيح مرشح رئاسي بدلاً من الطرق المباشرة أو الإجماع.[172] في العام السابق لانتخاب أيو في المؤتمر الوطني لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي في أكتوبر 2021، كان الحزب قد عانى من انشقاقات لبعض من أشهر الأعضاء البارزين، وعلى الأخص أكثر من عشرة أعضاء في الجمعية الوطنية وثلاثة حكام ولايات - ديڤ أوماهي حاكم ولاية إيبوني، بنديكت أيادى حاكم ولاية كروس ريڤر، وبلو متولى حاكم ولاية زمفرة؛ كما جاء الحزب في المرتبة الثانية بفارق كبير في انتخابات حاكم ولاية أنامبرا 2021 وأوقف رئيس الحزب آنذاك، أوتشى سيكوندوس.[173] ومع ذلك، تمكن حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي من عقد مؤتمره دون جدل أو عنف في أكتوبر، وانتخب جميع مسؤولي الحزب تقريبًا بالإجماع وافتتح لجنة العمل الوطنية الكاملة في ديسمبر.[12]

فيما يتعلق بالتقسيم إلى مناطق، لم يكن لدى حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي اتفاقية تقسيم مناطق رسمية للترشيح، ومع ذلك، كانت هناك دعوات من بعض السياسيين ومجموعات المصالح مثل منتدى محافظي الجنوب لتحديد منطقة الترشيح في الجنوب باسم بخارى من حزب مؤتمر جميع التقدميين، وهو شمالي، تم انتخابه مرتين.[174][175]

وسط دعوات للتقسيم إلى مناطق، شكل الحزب لجنة داخلية في مارس 2022 وكان من المتوقع صدور قرار بشأن القضية بحلول أبريل.[176][177] ومع ذلك، تأجل إصدار القرار حتى مايو عندما أعلن الحزب أنه لن يحدد ترشيحه.

في 16 مارس 2022، أعلن حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي جدوله الأساسي، حيث حدد سعر نموذج التعبير عن الاهتمام بمبلغ 5 مليون ₦ وسعر نموذج الترشيح 35 مليون ₦ مع خصم 50٪ للمرشحين بين 25 و30. كان من المقرر بيع النماذج من 18 مارس حتى 1 أبريل، لكن الحزب مدد الموعد النهائي في وقت لاحق أربع مرات قبل أن يصل إلى الموعد النهائي في 22 أبريل. بعد تقديم استمارات الترشيح بحلول 25 أبريل، تم فحص المرشحين من قبل لجنة حزبية في 29 أبريل بينما كان 2 مايو هو الموعد المحدد لعملية النظر في الطعن. تم تحديد المؤتمرات في 29 أبريل وأعيد جدولة مؤتمرات LGA في 10 مايو لانتخاب "مندوبين مخصصين" للانتخابات التمهيدية؛ لن يكون "المندوبون القانونيون" بحكم مناصبهم - الآلاف من أصحاب المناصب الحاليين والسابقين - ناخبين على عكس الانتخابات التمهيدية السابقة.[178][179][180] سيتقدم المرشحون الذين تمت الموافقة عليهم من خلال عملية الفرز إلى مجموعة أولية في 28 و29 مايو.[181][182]

في عرض الحزب، قامت لجنة بقيادة رئيس مجلس الشيوخ ديڤد مارك بفرز معظم المرشحين لكنها استبعدت اثنين - نواتشوكو أناكوينزي وكوزموس تشوكودي ندوكوي؛ بعد ذلك، أيدت لجنة فحص الاستئناف بقيادة أيو حالات الاستبعاد.[183][184] بعد الفرز، تم الإعلان عن قرار تقسيم المناطق المؤجل للحزب مع اختيار المجلس التنفيذي الوطني لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي عدم تحديد منطقة الترشيح لأي منطقة معينة، مما جعل السباق مفتوحًا لجميع المرشحين.[185] من بين المرشحين، رأى المحللون خمسة على أنهم الأكثر احتمالاً للفوز: عتيقو أبو بكر- نائب الرئيس السابق والمرشح الرئاسي لعام 2019، پيتر أوبي - حاكم ولاية أنامبرا السابق ومرشح نائب الرئيس لعام 2019، بوكولا ساراكي - رئيس مجلس الشيوخ السابق، أمينو وزيري تامبوال - حاكم ولاية سوكوتو ورئيس مجلس النواب السابق ونيسوم وايك - حاكم ولاية ريڤرز مع عدد قليل من المرشحين البارزين الآخرين الذين يُنظر إليهم على أنهم من غير المرجح أن تتاح لهم فرصة.[186][187] ومع ذلك، قبل أيام قليلة من الانتخابات التمهيدية، انسحب أوبي فجأة من الانتخابات التمهيدية وانتقل إلى حزب العمال.[188][189]

في الأيام التي سبقت الانتخابات التمهيدية، ظهر الجدل حول الناخبين المحتملين بسبب التداعيات القانونية لقانون الانتخابات المعدل. بعد سنوات من النقاش والضغط العام، وقع بخاري قانونًا انتخابيًا جديدًا في يناير 2022 أدى إلى إصلاح جذري للأنظمة الانتخابية والانتخابية لكل من الانتخابات التمهيدية والعامة. كان أحد الإصلاحات استبعاد "المندوبين القانونيين" بحكم المنصب - الآلاف من شاغلي المناصب الحاليين والسابقين - من التصويت في الانتخابات التمهيدية للحزب. قالت قيادة الجمعية الوطنية إن الاستبعاد كان غير مقصود، وفي مايو، أقرت NASS تعديلاً على القانون للسماح للمندوبين القانونيين بالتصويت في الانتخابات التمهيدية.[63] ومع ذلك، رفض بخاري التوقيع على التعديل ليصبح قانونًا، مما أجبر حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي على منع المندوبين القانونيين فجأة من التصويت. لم يمنع هذا الإجراء الحكام الحاليين وغيرهم من أصحاب المناصب رفيعي المستوى من التصويت فحسب، بل قلل بشكل كبير عدد المندوبين إلى 810 فقط ثم 774.[65][190][191][192]

يوم الانتخابات التمهيدية، اجتمع المندوبون في مضمار ملعب موشود أبيولا الوطني للاعتماد والتصويت. على الرغم من بعض الأحداث غير المتوقعة، بما في ذلك وصول أفراد لجنة الجرائم الاقتصادية والمالية بهدف منع الرشوة وانسحاب المرشح محمد حياة الدين احتجاجًا على السباق "النقدي الفاحش"، استمرت العملية حيث ألقى كل مرشح كلمة أخيرة على المندوبين قبل التصويت.[193][194] جاءت مفاجأة أخرى بعد الخطب، عندما عاد تامبوال إلى المنصة للانسحاب من الانتخابات التمهيدية وتوجيه مندوبيه للتصويت لأبو بكر.[195] بعد الانسحاب، بدأ التصويت وبعد أكثر من ساعة من التصويت، تم جدولة الأصوات علنًا. عند اكتمال الفرز، ظهر عتيقو أبو بكر كمرشح بعد أن أظهرت النتائج فوزه بما يقل قليلاً عن 50٪ من الأصوات بهامش 18٪ over runner-up Wike.[196][197][2]

أفادت التحقيقات اللاحقة في تقارير توزيع الأصوات أن أبو بكر فاز بأغلبية المندوبين من شمال غرب وشمال شرق البلاد بينما مندوبون من الشمال الأوسط والجنوب الغربي انقسم تصويتهم بين أبوبكر وساراكي ووايك؛ المندوبينمن الجنوب الشرقي والجنوب الجنوبي انقسموا أيضًا، بشكل رئيسي بين أبو بكر ووايك، لكن مع فوز إيمانويل بجزء من الأصوات.[198]

وتعهد أبو بكر في خطاب قبوله بإيصال الحزب للفوز في الانتخابات العامة على أساس برنامج قائم على الوحدة والنمو الاقتصادي مع إبداء نبرة تصالحية فيما يتعلق بخصومه السابقين. لاحظ تحليل ما بعد المرحلة التمهيدية العديد من الأسباب المحتملة لانتصار أبو بكر، وهي: انسحاب تامبوال، منصب أبو بكر العام وخبرة حملته الانتخابية، العدد الأكبر من مندوبي الشمال، والرشوة.[199]

هيمنت الأسابيع التي أعقبت الانتخابات التمهيدية على البحث عن رفيق أبو بكر الانتخابي، لأن أبو بكر مسلم شمالي كان من المتوقع أن يكون زميله في الترشح مسيحيًا جنوبيًا مع ويك وإيمانويل وحاكم ولاية دلتا إيفانيي أوكوا في القائمة المختصرة كخيارات محتملة.[95][200]

في 16 يونيو، أعلن أبو بكر أن أوكوا سيكون نائبه في الانتخابات؛[6][201] لاحظ المراقبون أنه على الرغم من أصول أوكوا الجنوب الجنوبية، فإن عرقيته الإيكا يمكن أن يكون إشارة إلى صخب رفيقه الانتخابي الإگبو الجنوب شرقي.[خ][202][203] في خطاب الإعلان، قال أبو بكر إنه استشار قيادة الحزب في البحث عن رفيقه الانتخابي، وأن أوكوا اختير بسبب خبرته الواسعة وصفاته الشخصية.[204]

المرشحون

المستبعدون في المرحلة التمهيدية

الغير مؤهلون حسب لجنة الفرز

مرشحون منسحبون

رُفضوا

النتائج التمهيدية

حصت المرشح من الأصوات

  عتيقو أبو بكر (49.34%)
  نيوسم ويكى (31.52%)
  بوكولو ساراكي (9.31%)
  أودوم گابريل إيمانويل (5.05%)
  مرشحون آخرون (4.78%)
النتائج التمهيدية لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطية[2]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)|قالب:Peoples Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] عتيقو أبو بكر 371 49.34%%
PDP نيوسم ويكى 237 31.52%
PDP بوكولا ساراكي 70 9.31%
PDP أودوم گابريل إيمانويل 38 5.05%
PDP بالا محمد 20 2.66%
PDP أنيوم پيوس أنيوم 14 1.86%
PDP سام أوهاوابونوا 1 0.13%
PDP ديانا أوليڤر تاريلا 1 0.13%
PDP أيو فايوسى 0 0.00%
PDP تشيكوندو كالو 0 0.00%
PDP ديلى مومودو 0 0.00%
PDP تشارلز أوگوو 0 0.00%
الاجمالي 752 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 12 N/A
الإقبال 764 98.43%

الاحزاب الصغرى

الاتفاق

حدد الاتفاق أول موعد للانتخابات في 2 يونيو قبل نقله إلى 4 يونيو.[243][244] في ذلك اليوم، رشح الحزب رجل الأعمال كريستوفر إيمومولين، كمرشح رئاسي للحزب. تم تحديد الترشيح من خلال التصويت الصوتي بعد تنحي جميع المرشحين الآخرين.[245][246] في 25 أغسطس، سُمي بلو بالا مارو - مسئول مجلس وزراء ولاية زمفرة السابق - شريكاً إنتخابياً لإيمومولين.[247]

النتائج التمهيدية للاتفاقية[245]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Accord (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Accord (Nigeria)|قالب:Accord (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] كريستوفر إيمومولين Voice vote 100.00%%
الاجمالي N/A 100.00%%
الإقبال N/A 100.00%
تحالف الحراك

حصة المرشح من الأصوات

  حمزة المصطفى (70.08%)
  سمسون أودوپيتان (29.92%)

حدد تحالف الحراك مبدئيًا موعد انتخاباته التمهيدية في 3 يونيو 2022 لكنه نقله إلى 9 يونيو مع بيع النماذج في الفترة من 4 أبريل إلى 15 مايو.[248] تم تحديد سعر نموذج التعبير عن الاهتمام بـ 5 ملايين ₦ وسعر نموذج الترشيح بـ 10 ملايين ₦ مع خصم 50٪ للنساء والشباب والمرشحين ذوي الإعاقة.[249][244]

في موعد الانتخابات التمهيدية، انسحب مرشحان (توندي كيلاني وفيليكس جونسون أوساكوي بينما واصل المرشحان الآخران انتخابات تمهيدية غير مباشرة في أبوجا انتهت بظهور حمزة المصطفى —الديكتاتور العسكري السابق وساني أباشا ضابط الأمن السابق والمساعد المقرب وزعيم فرقة الموت - كمرشحين للحزب بعد أن أظهرت النتائج فوز المصطفى بأكثر من 70٪ من أصوات المندوبين.[250] ودعا المصطفى في خطاب قبوله إلى الوحدة الوطنية والحزبية قبل أن يتعهد خصمه الوحيد سمسون أودوبيتان بدعم المصطفى في الانتخابات العامة.[251] كان تشوكووكا جونسون كمرشح الحزب لمنصب نائب الرئيس.

النتائج التمهيدية لتحالف الحراك [250]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Action Alliance/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Action Alliance|قالب:Action Alliance/meta/shortname]] حمزة المصطفى 506 70.08%%
AA سمسون أودوپيتان 216 29.92%
الاجمالي 722 100.00%%
الإقبال 854 100.00%
حزب الحراك الديمقراطي

حدد حزب الحراك الديمقراطي انتخاباته التمهيدية في 31 مايو حيث رشح الحزب رئيسه الوطني، ياباجي ساني، كمرشح رئاسي. تم تحديد الترشيح باستخدام طريقة الإجماع التي انتهت بظهور ساني كمرشح. وشكر ساني الحزب في خطاب القبول، مشيراً إلى أن طريقة التوافق كانت مفيدة وواعدة بالالتزام بأعضاء الحزب كمرشح لهم.[252] في 23 يونيو، أعلن أودو أوكاي-أوكورو كشريك انتخابي لساني.[253]

النتائج التمهيدية لحزب الحراك الديمقرطي [252]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Action Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Action Democratic Party (Nigeria)|قالب:Action Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] Yabagi Sani Consensus 100.00%%
الاجمالي N/A 100.00%%
الإقبال N/A 100.00%
Action Peoples Party

رشح حزب حراك الشعوب أوسيتا نادي وعيسى هاميسو لمنصب الرئيس ونائب الرئيس، على التوالي.

مؤتمر الحراك الأفريقي

شهدت السنوات التي سبقت انتخابات مؤتمر الحراك الأفريقي التمهيدية أزمة حزبية حيث ادعت مجموعتان أنهما منظمة حزبية شرعية، أحدهما بقيادة ليونارد نزينوا والفصيل الآخر بقيادة مؤسس الحزب أومويلى سوورى.[254] ادعى كلا السياسيين أنهما رئيسان للحزب مع INEC اعترفت في البداية بنزينوا حتى تم تأكيد سوورى ليكون الرئيس الشرعي في أوائل يونيو 2022.[255]

حدد مؤتمر الحراك الأفريقي في البداية موعد انتخاباته التمهيدية من 1 إلى 3 يونيو قبل نقله إلى 9 يونيو مع تسجيل المرشحين للمنافسة بين 6 و9 مايو.[256] The party waived fees for both its expression of interest and nomination forms with candidates only having to pay ₦500,000 "obligatory donation" fees with a 25% discount for women and no fees for candidates with disabilities, students, honorably discharged security personnel, teachers, nurses, and emergency service workers.[257][258]

On the primary date, Sowore was the sole candidate but first resigned as party chairman before the primary in accordance with the party constitution.[259] He then won the nomination by acclamation.[260][261][262] At the end of the month, Haruna Garba Magashi—a lawyer from Kano State—was unveiled as the vice presidential nominee in Abuja.[263]

AAC primary results[260]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:African Action Congress/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[African Action Congress|قالب:African Action Congress/meta/shortname]] Omoyele Sowore Consensus 100.00%%
الاجمالي N/A 100.00%%
الإقبال N/A 100.00%
African Democratic Congress

During the 2019 elections, the ADC solidified its place as one of the larger minor parties by becoming the fourth largest party in the House of Representatives and taking a distant fourth in the presidential race. However, the party faced difficulty as the majority of its legislators decamped to different parties during their terms.[264]

The African Democratic Congress initially scheduled its primary for 1 June but rescheduled it for 8 June with forms being sold from 24 March to 24 May.[244] The expression of interest form price was set at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with forms being free for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[265][266]

Candidates' vote share

  Dumebi Kachikwu (49.29%)
  Kingsley Moghalu (29.69%)
  Chukwuka Monye (17.09%)
  Other candidates (7.51%)

Ahead of the primary in Abeokuta, it was noted that the ADC had a high number of aspirants compared to other smaller parties with analysts viewing two as the major contenders: Dumebi Kachikwu—Roots Television Nigeria founder and brother of former minister Ibe Kachikwu along with Kingsley Moghalu—a former Central Bank official.[264][267][268] On the primary date, the candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Kachikwu emerging as the presidential nominee after results showed him winning just under 50% of the delegates' votes.[269][270] A few days later, Moghalu left the party in protest amid allegations that Kachikwu's win was mainly due to bribes given to delegates.[271] Kachikwu denied the allegations and claimed that it was Moghalu that attempted bribery;[272] however, a few days later, American assets of Kachikwu were seized and a previous seizure related to the William J. Jefferson corruption case resurfaced leading to questions on his credibility.[273] The party first nominated Ahmed Mani for the vice presidency as a placeholder before picking Malika Sani later in June;[274] however, Sani's nomination fell through and about a month later, Kachikwu announced Ahmed Buhari—an oil and gas consultant from Niger State—as his substantive running mate.[275] Soon afterward, the party descended into crisis as factions attempted to expel Kachikwu.[276]

ADC primary results[269]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:African Democratic Congress/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[African Democratic Congress|قالب:African Democratic Congress/meta/shortname]] Dumebi Kachikwu 978 49.29%%
ADC Kingsley Moghalu 589 29.69%
ADC Chukwuka Monye 339 17.09%
ADC Chichi Ojei 72 3.63%
ADC Ebiti Ndok-Jegede 5 0.25%
ADC Angela Johnson 1 0.05%
الاجمالي 1,984 100.00%%
الإقبال 2,100 100.00%
Allied Peoples Movement

The Allied Peoples Movement initially scheduled its primary for 30 May but rescheduled it for 9 June.[277][244] Party chairman Yusuf Mamman Dantalle was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed at the party secretariat.[278] Princess Chichi Ojei was then nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee. However, Dantalle withdrew from the nomination in July and Ojei was nominated in his place.[279] She later picked Ibrahim Mohammed as running mate.

All Progressives Grand Alliance

In 2021 and 2022, APGA retained the Anambra State governorship by a substantial margin and gained a senator through defection, cementing its place as the nation's third largest party. However, the party rarely expands out from its southeastern base and has not obtained over a percent of the vote in any presidential election since 2003.

The All Progressives Grand Alliance scheduled its primary for 1 June 2022 with ward congresses set for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary. The expression of interest form price was set at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for women and candidates with disabilities;[280][281] forms were to be sold from 29 March to 11 April but the deadline was extended to 15 April.[282]

On primary day, Peter Umeadi—former Chief Judge of Anambra State—was the sole presidential candidate and was nominated by voice vote.[283] Abdullahi Muhammed Koli, a labour union activist from Bauchi State, was announced as Umeadi's vice presidential running mate on 12 June.[284]

APGA primary results[283]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:All Progressives Grand Alliance/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[All Progressives Grand Alliance|قالب:All Progressives Grand Alliance/meta/shortname]] Peter Umeadi Voice vote 100.00%%
الاجمالي 150 100.00%%
الإقبال 150 100.00%
Boot Party

The Boot Party nominated Sunday Adenuga and Mustapha Usman Turaki as the party's presidential and vice presidential nominee, respectively.

Labour Party

In 2021, a number of politicians and activists led by Patrick Utomi, Attahiru Jega, and Femi Falana announced an effort to find a party to lead a "Third Force" alliance in an attempt to unseat the APC and the PDP.[285] After a number of delays, in May 2022, the group adopted the Labour Party as its platform with hopes of forming an alliance with a number of other smaller parties.[286][287][288][289] The party received another boost when former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi joined the party in May 2022 to continue his presidential campaign after leaving the PDP.[290] Obi was welcomed into the party by its leadership which also used the announcement to attack the APC and PDP as well as commit to the party manifesto.[291] However, the party had to contend with deep divisions as a factional crisis from 2018 is still in the courts.[292]

The Labour Party initially scheduled its primary for 3 June but rescheduled it for 30 May.[293][244] It set the price for expression of interest and nomination forms at ₦30 million. On the day of the primary, 104 delegates gathered in Asaba for the primary but no election was needed as three of four candidates—Utomi, Olubusola Emmanuel-Tella, and Joseph Faduri—withdrew in favour of Obi. Obi then won the primary unanimously with only a sole invalid vote not going for him. In his acceptance speech, he promised to revolutionize the nation economically and mobilize an effective general election campaign.[4][294] A few days after the primary, the other Labour faction held its own parallel primary but INEC recognized the Obi-won election.[295] On 17 June, the party submitted the name of Doyin Okupe—a physician and former PDP candidate who became the Director-General of the Obi Campaign Organisation—as a placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[7] On July 7, Okupe formally withdrew ahead of the announcement of Obi's substantive running mate.[296] The next day, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed—a businessman who previously served as Senator for Kaduna North—was announced as the party's vice presidential nominee.[9] Analysts noted the regional balance of the ticket as Baba-Ahmed is a northerner but questioned his electoral experience as he has not won an election since 2011; at the same time, pundits said his prominent Zaria-based family and technocratic image could help Obi.[297][298]

LP primary results[4]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Labour Party (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Labour Party (Nigeria)|قالب:Labour Party (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] Peter Obi 96 100.00%%
الاجمالي 96 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 1 N/A
الإقبال 97 93.27%
National Rescue Movement

The National Rescue Movement scheduled its primary for 1 and 2 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1.5 million and nomination form price at ₦17.5 million with a 50% discount for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[299] At the primary, Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike—a businessman—defeated seven other candidates to win the nomination by a margin of over 60% of the vote.[300] However, when INEC released its provisional nominee list, Nwa-Anyajike had been substituted for Felix Johnson Osakwe—a withdrawn AA presidential candidate; Nwa-Anyajike and other party members allege that Osakwe colluded with a portion of NRM leadership to forge Nwa-Anyajike's withdrawal and substitute Osakwe as the nominee.[301] When the INEC final nominee list was released in September, Osakwe's name remained as the party presidential nominee with Yahaya Muhammad Kyabo as vice presidential nominee.[302]

Candidates' vote share

  Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike (78.26%)
  Benedicta Egbo (14.78%)
  Other candidates (6.96%)
NRM primary results[300]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:National Rescue Movement/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[National Rescue Movement|قالب:National Rescue Movement/meta/shortname]] Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike 180 78.26%%
NRM Benedicta Egbo 34 14.78%
NRM Ibrahim Yunusa 10 4.35%
NRM Vincent Anthony Ubani 2 0.87%
NRM Sam Emiaso 1 0.43%
NRM Barry Avotu Johnson (withdrawn) 1 0.43%
NRM Emeka Mandela Ukaegbu 1 0.43%
NRM Solomon Uchenna Winning 1 0.43%
NRM Francis Ikechukwu Igbo (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
الاجمالي 230 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 10 N/A
الإقبال 240 100.00%
New Nigeria Peoples Party

In early 2022, former Governor of Kano State Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP.[303] Within a few weeks, a number of other politicians (mainly from the North, especially Kano State) joined the party and Kwankwaso was named national leader of the party in preparation for his presidential campaign.[304][305][306]

The New Nigeria Peoples Party initially scheduled its primary for 1 and 2 June 2022 before pushing it back to 8 June.[244] To elect delegates for the primary, ward and local government congresses were set for 22 and 25 April, respectively. The expression of interest form price was set at ₦10 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with those forms being sold from 10 to 15 April.[307]

Ahead of the primary, the party attempted to woo Peter Obi to be Kwankwaso's running mate but he instead went to the Labour Party;[308][309] as an alternative, presidential candidate Olufemi Ajadi stepped down and agreed to be Kwankwaso's running mate.[310] Ajadi's withdrawal left Kwankwaso unopposed in the primary.[311] On 8 June, Kwankwaso won the nomination by voice vote at the primary in Velodrome of the Moshood Abiola National Stadium.[312][5] The party would later nominate Ladipo Johnson instead of Ajadi as a placeholder vice presidential nominee while negotiations with the Labour Party resumed.[313][314] After the negotiations failed, Isaac Idahosa—a Lagos-based pastor originally from Edo State—was named as the substantive vice presidential nominee on 14 July.[315]

NNPP primary results[5]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:New Nigeria Peoples Party/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[New Nigeria Peoples Party|قالب:New Nigeria Peoples Party/meta/shortname]] Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso Voice vote 100.00%%
الاجمالي N/A 100.00%%
الإقبال 774 100.00%
People's Redemption Party

Candidates' vote share

  Kola Abiola (59.88%)
  Usman Bugaje (23.22%)
  Patience Key (9.39%)
  Gboluga Mosugu (7.51%)

The People's Redemption Party first scheduled its primary for 28 May but moved it to 4 and 5 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦500,000 and its nomination form price at ₦10 million with a 50% discount for women candidates and free nomination forms for candidates with disabilities.[316] In the primary, Kola Abiola—businessman and the son of former president-elect M. K. O. Abiola—defeated three other candidates to win the nomination by a margin of over 37% of the vote.[317] Unlike other parties' presidential primaries, the PRP had delegates vote from their state events instead of holding one central primary. In the weeks after the primary, Ribi Marshal was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee; he was replaced by Haro Haruna Zego in the final INEC nominee list.[302]

PRP primary results[317]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:People's Redemption Party/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[People's Redemption Party|قالب:People's Redemption Party/meta/shortname]] Kola Abiola 2,097 59.88%%
PRP Usman Bugaje 813 23.22%
PRP Patience Key 329 9.39%
PRP Gboluga Mosugu 263 7.51%
الاجمالي 3,502 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 158 N/A
الإقبال 3,660 100.00%
Social Democratic Party

The Social Democratic Party initially scheduled its primary for 28 to 30 May 2022 but one faction instead scheduled its primary for 8 June while the another faction held its primary on 31 May. Ward/LGA and state congresses were set for 19 May and 20 May, respectively, to elect delegates for the primary.[318][319] The party set its expression of interest form price at ₦3 million and its nomination form price at ₦32 million with a 50% discount for youth and free forms for women and candidates with disabilities.[320]

The months prior to the SDP primary were beset by a party crisis as two groups both claimed to be the legitimate party organization.[321][322] On 31 May, the Supo Shonibare-led faction held its primary and nominated Ebenezer Ikeyina—former Senator for Anambra Central—unopposed.[323][324][325] On 8 June, the Olu Agunloye-led faction held its primary at the Abuja International Conference Centre and nominated Adewole Adebayo—a lawyer and media mogul—by a wide margin over his sole opponent, Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi.[326] Adebayo's nomination was recognized by INEC as he and his vice presidential running mate—Yusuf Buhari—were placed on the final nominee list.[302]

SDP (Shonibare faction) invalid primary results[323]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)|قالب:Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] Ebenezer Ikeyina 308 99.35%%
SDP Against Ebenezer Ikeyina 2 0.65%
الاجمالي 310 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 1 N/A
الإقبال 311 100.00%
SDP (Agunloye faction) primary results[326]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)|قالب:Social Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/shortname]] Adewole Adebayo 1,546 94.90%%
SDP Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi 83 5.10%
الاجمالي 1,629 100.00%%
الأصوات الباطلة 44 N/A
الإقبال 1,673 97.84%
Young Progressives Party

The Young Progressives Party initially scheduled its primary for 1 June before moving it to 8 June.[244] It was won by Malik Ado-Ibrahim, the founder of the Reset Nigeria Initiative and son of Ohinoyi of Ebiraland Abdul Rahman Ado Ibrahim, by a large margin over Ruby Isaac.[327] In his acceptance speech, Ado-Ibrahim vowed to unify Nigerians and provide basic services.[328] Kasarachi Enyinna was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee.

YPP primary results[327]
الحزب المرشح الأصوات النسبة
style="background-color: قالب:Young Progressives Party/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Young Progressives Party|قالب:Young Progressives Party/meta/shortname]] Malik Ado-Ibrahim 66 94.29%%
YPP Ruby Isaac 4 5.71%
الاجمالي 70 100.00%%
الإقبال 70 94.59%
Zenith Labour Party[د]

The then-Zenith Labour Party[د] initially scheduled its primary for 1 June before moving it to 8 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦18 million with free forms for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[330] At the primary, Dan Nwanyanwu—the party national chairman—won the nomination on the same day that the party name was changed to the Zenith Progressives Alliance.[329] Ramalan Abubakar was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee.

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released a timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[1] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[331]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[ذ] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 10 June 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 17 June 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 28 September 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 23 February 2023 – Final day of the official campaign period
  • 25 February 2023 – Election Day

Recognized parties and nominees

After the 2019 elections, INEC deregistered 74 political parties for failing to "satisfy the requirements" of continued registration based on their performances during the elections.[332][333][334] The move, which was unsuccessfully challenged in court several times from 2019 to 2022, left the nation with 18 political parties: Accord, the Action Alliance, the Action Democratic Party, the Action Peoples Party, the African Action Congress, the African Democratic Congress, the Allied Peoples Movement, the All Progressives Congress, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, the Boot Party, the Labour Party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party, the National Rescue Movement, the Peoples Democratic Party, the People's Redemption Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Young Progressives Party, and the Zenith Progressives Alliance. In March 2022, INEC announced that no new parties would be registered before the 2023 elections.[335]

Parties were required to submit their presidential and vice presidential nominees between 10 and 17 June 2022.[331][336] On 25 June, INEC released the provisional list of most recognized presidential and vice presidential nominees.[337] The final list was released on 20 September.[302]

2023 Presidential nominees
Party Ticket
Presidential nominee Vice Presidential nominee
Accord Christopher Imumolen Bello Bala Maru
Action Alliance Hamza al-Mustapha Chukwuka Johnson
Action Democratic Party Yabagi Sani Udo Okey-Okoro
Action Peoples Party Osita Nnadi Isa Hamisu
African Action Congress Omoyele Sowore Haruna Garba Magashi
African Democratic Congress Dumebi Kachikwu Ahmed Buhari
All Progressives Congress Bola Tinubu Kashim Shettima
All Progressives Grand Alliance Peter Umeadi Abdullahi Muhammed Koli
Allied Peoples Movement Princess Chichi Ojei Ibrahim Mohammed
Boot Party Sunday Adenuga Mustapha Usman Turaki
Labour Party Peter Obi Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed
National Rescue Movement Felix Johnson Osakwe Yahaya Muhammad Kyabo
New Nigeria Peoples Party Rabiu Kwankwaso Isaac Idahosa
People's Redemption Party Kola Abiola Haro Haruna Zego
Peoples Democratic Party Atiku Abubakar Ifeanyi Okowa
Social Democratic Party Adewole Adebayo Yusuf Buhari
Young Progressives Party Malik Ado-Ibrahim Kasarachi Enyinna
Zenith Labour Party[د] Dan Nwanyanwu Ramalan Abubakar

Election administration

Primary and post-primary period

Party primaries are administered by the parties themselves but must be monitored by Independent National Electoral Commission observers and fall inside the scheduled primary period set by INEC. The commission released the timetable in February 2022 with a final date of 3 June 2022 for party primaries; as this date neared, parties repeatedly asked INEC to extend the deadline by two months.[338] After several refusals, INEC agreed to a shorter extension of six days to 9 June but the decision proved controversial as pundits noted that the PDP was about to hold its primary while the APC had not even screened its candidates.[339][340] Further criticism arose because INEC initially did not also extend the voter registration deadline in kind.[341][342]

After the primaries, focus shifted to voter registration and the logistical issues surrounding it. Due to years of IPOB attacks on southeastern INEC offices, the commission's capacity in the region was low in 2022 while in Lagos, a registration drive by market traders in June 2022 that overwhelmed an INEC centre also drew the commission's registration capability into question as the deadline neared.[343][344] In the wake of the incidents, INEC deployed extra registration machines to Lagos State, Kano State, and some southeastern states.[345] Around the same time, INEC hinted at a potential extension of the registration deadline before a court ruling later in June pushed back the deadline anyway.[346][347][348] In compliance with the ruling, INEC set the new deadline for 31 July while simultaneously extending daily registration hours from six to eight.[349] Ahead of the deadline, eleven states declared public holidays for voter registration in an attempt to increase public participation in the political process.[350] After the deadline passed, INEC announced that nearly 12.3 million new voters registered during the exercise.[351][352] 8.75 million of the new voters were younger than 34, a percentage noted as a potential sign of increased youth participation ahead of the election.[353] After the registration drive, the total registered voters number was about 96.2 million with the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones having the most voters.[354]

As the official campaign period neared, INEC focused on direct public communication and formed the Election Crisis Communication Team in late August. During the team inauguration, commissioner Festus Okoye stated that the group's formation was initiated by the Centre for Democracy and Development to combat misinformation and inform the public on key events to the public; Okoye also said that the commission was in the process of training staff to work polling units.[355] Focus shifted back to registration afterwards, with INEC delisting over 1.1 million invalid registrants in mid-September.[356][357] Among the final pre-campaign period procedures was the 20 September release of the nominee list along with the reiteration of the timetable.[302]

Campaign period

The official campaign period began on 28 September 2022 and will end on 23 February 2023.[331] At the start of the campaign period, reports noted the pressure placed on INEC from voters, misinformation, and political parties.[358]

In late October, the commission again announced mass delisting of invalid registrants with 2.78 million enrollees (including the prior 1.1 million invalid registrants) being removed from the list due to double registration, underaged registration, and other issues. At the same event, INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu also revealed that the preliminary total valid registrant number was about 93.52 million.[359] In accordance with law, INEC posted registries in each local ward but also released the full registrant list online, asking for the public to help scrutinize the list. Amid the public clamor to inspect the list, thousands of public reports showed clearly underage children as registrants—in response, INEC thanked public investigators then vowed to remove ineligible registrants and prosecute complicit officials.[360]

As campaigning escalated in late 2022, fears rose over electoral violence based on ethnic, regional, and religious sentiments as candidates and their surrogates began extensively using identity politics during campaigning.[361] Similarly, fears rose over media campaign and election coverage and its effects on public discourse; while certain outlets were criticized for biases, other groups were praised for advancing election coverage as Stears Business published the first live election tracker in November.[362][363]

Total registered voters by state as of January 2023[364]

In terms of election security, a series of attacks on INEC offices in Imo State in December 2022 led to further domestic and international concern despite assurances from security forces that the election would be nonviolent.[365][366] In the wake of the attacks, the Centre for Democracy and Development called for conflict sensitive media reporting on the election to avoid further violence.[367] In accompaniment with concern over violence, renewed fear of hate speech (especially online) began as the election neared and politicians increasingly employed it as a campaign tactic.[368][369][370]

Aside from direct threats to the elections, INEC also raised the alarm about vote-buying to manipulate results as the practice had greatly impacted elections in 2021 and 2022. In a reported attempt to combat vote-buying, the Central Bank redesigned the 200, 500, and 1,000 naira notes in October 2022 and removed older notes from circulation. The move prevented parties from using pre-gathered cash that was attended to be distributed for vote-buying as the elections neared.[371] However, the new policy and its sudden announcement was very controversial, especially as Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele—who fled into self-imposed exile in late 2022—refused to personally explain the move to the National Assembly.[372][373] For the part of INEC, the commission vowed to prevent vote-buying despite previous failed reforms while civil society groups noted that vote-buying was just one of a numbers of potential manipulation tactics, with YIAGA Africa releasing a report detailing electoral malpractice risk factors by state.[374][375][376]

As sporadic attacks on southeastern INEC offices continued into the new year, a commission official warned that the election could be forced into postponement if the attacks were not stopped.[377] Although the comment was quickly retracted and the commission promised to hold the election as scheduled, concerns continued considering the deadly attacks—like previous southeastern attacks on INEC, experts stated that the attacks were most likely conducted by violent secessionist groups attempting to "delegitimise the electoral process and boost their separatist agenda."[378][379] The attacks continued until the election, as did concerns that the election would be postponed at the last moment.[380][381][382]

Amid swirling doubts over the election proceeding, INEC released new voter registration data in mid-January 2023. The statistics totaled to 93,469,008 eligible voters after the commission reviewed challenges to over 50,000 registrants in addition to removing more instances of double and underage registration. While there was data on occupation and disability plus a sizeable gender gap—over 4.6 million more men registered than women, focus was mainly directed at the increased youth registration with nearly 40% of all voters being between the ages of 18 and 34. Geographic data showed fairly stark contrasts between regions as the North-West and South-West led in total voters while the North East and South East trailed behind.[364] Around the same time, INEC twice extended the deadline for PVC collection in wake of public calls for an extension.[383][384] A few weeks after the final deadline elapsed, the commission released Permanent Voter Card collection statistics on 23 February that showed a total of 87,209,007 voters (93.3% of all registered voters) had collected their PVCs.[385] In the final days of the campaign period, INEC vowed that the election would be free, safe, secure, timely, and transparent with hundreds of thousands of security personnel, 229 foreign and domestic observer groups, and thousands of INEC staffers.[386][387]

Election period

On Election Day, widespread reports of delayed starts to voting emerged with YIAGA Africa estimating that only 41% of polling units had commenced voting by 9:30am, an hour after voting was scheduled to start.[388] Similarly, SBM Intelligence reported that only 41.3% of polling units had opened on time while Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room data claimed less than 30% of units had started by 8:30 am, with other reports claiming that the currency crisis had precluded INEC from paying cash to transporters prior to Election Day which led some drivers to refuse to convey INEC materials or personnel.[389] SBM also noted that turnout was high and there were relatively few violent incidents nationwide while some groups observed newly adapted vote buying efforts due to the currency crisis like bribing using West African CFA francs or non-monetary inducements.[390][391][392] However, there were notable reports of violence in certain areas, most notably in Lagos State where thugs alleged to be aligned with the APC targeted predominantly ethnic minority areas.[393] Additionally, several attacks on journalists by unknown assailants or even security personnel occurred throughout Election Day.[394][395][396][397] Although INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu acknowledged several problems at his 1pm briefing and called on voters to stay at polling units, civil groups called on INEC to extend voting past the 2:30pm deadline.[398][399][400] The first announced postponements came later in the day when INEC suspended voting in 141 Bayelsa State units where there were disruptions, rescheduling the voting for 26 February.[401] INEC later extended voting to the next day in parts of Cross River State and Kogi State as well.[402]

Later in the day, focus turned to turnout and results collation. On turnout, SBM Intelligence released a state-by-state turnout projection, estimating that overall turnout had risen compared to 2019 and that everywhere but Kwara and Ogun had turnout higher than 30%.[403] Although INEC had announced that collation centres would only open at noon on 26 February, the commission had long promised to upload polling unit results to its INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) on Election Day; however, no results were uploaded for most of the day, leading to protests by the civil society groups and online citizens.[404][405][406] The Obi campaign also decried the lack of uploads, claiming the act drew the election's fairness into doubt and noting that legislative results had already been uploaded;[407] Labour Party Chairman Julius Abure went as far to claim that compromised or threatened INEC officials were holding back results from Obi-supporting areas of Lagos and Delta states.[408] Around 10:45 pm on the night of 25 February, INEC finally began uploading data to the portal.[409] By 6 am in the morning of 26 February, only about 10% of polling unit results had been uploaded as journalists noted the rising potential for further doubt in election credibility due to the delay.[410] Later in the morning, voting in rescheduled units commenced while newly released civil society reports commended voters but decried suppression and poor administration.[411][412][413][414]

Campaign

Timeline

Pre-campaign period

  • 28 April 2021: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announces 18 February 2023 as the election day.[415]
  • 10 November 2021: APGA nominee Charles Chukwuma Soludo is declared winner of the off-cycle Anambra State gubernatorial election that took place on 6 November; the PDP and APC nominees come distant second and third places, respectively.[416]
  • 28 January 2022: Then-aspirant Bola Tinubu goes to London, reportedly on a medical trip; the trip comes just a few months after Tinubu returned from a three-month medical stay in the United Kingdom.[417]
  • 26 February 2022: INEC revises the election date, moving the election to 25 February 2023 and releasing the rest of the electoral timetable.[1]
  • 16 March 2022: The Peoples Democratic Party announces its primary schedule, setting 28 and 29 May as its primary days.[182]
  • 20 April 2022: The All Progressives Congress announces its primary schedule, setting 30 May and 1 June as its primary days.[59]
  • 12 May 2022: In the wake of the Lynching of Deborah Yakubu, then-aspirant Atiku Abubakar is heavily criticized for deleting a tweet condemning the murder.[418]
  • 25 May 2022:
  • 27 May 2022: INEC slightly revises its electoral timetable, allowing parties an extra six days to conduct primaries.[41]
  • 28 May 2022:
  • 30 May 2022: The LP holds its primary in Asaba, nominating Obi unopposed.[4]
  • 7 and 8 June 2022: The APC holds its primary in Abuja, nominating former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu over Rotimi Amaechi, Yemi Osinbajo, and eleven other candidates.[3]
  • 16 June 2022: Abubakar picks Ifeanyi Okowa—the Governor of Delta State—as the PDP vice presidential nominee.[6]
  • 17 June 2022:
    • Tinubu picks Kabir Ibrahim Masari—a party operative—as the APC placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[8]
    • Obi picks Doyin Okupe—the Obi campaign manager—as the LP placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[7]
  • 18 June 2022: Rabiu Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party presidential nominee and the former Governor of Kano State, and Okupe both announce productive discussions between minor parties on forming a coalition for the elections.[421][422]
  • 19 June 2022: APC nominee Abiodun Oyebanji is declared winner of the off-cycle Ekiti State gubernatorial election that took place the day before; the PDP nominee comes a distant third place.[423]
  • 24 June 2022: Documentation submitted by Tinubu to INEC is released, revealing that he did not state the primary or secondary school he attended. The new form reignited the longtime certificate and personal history controversies around Tinubu as the form was in direct contradiction with previous sworn forms and public statements.[424][425][426]
  • 5 July 2022: Okupe announces that LP-NNPP coalition talks have collapsed.[427]
  • 7 July 2022: Okupe formally withdraws as LP vice presidential nominee.[296]
  • 8 July 2022: Obi picks Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed—former Senator for Kaduna North—as the substantive LP vice presidential nominee.[9]
  • 10 July 2022:
  • 14 July 2022: Abubakar returns to Nigeria after spending weeks abroad on an undisclosed trip.[428]
  • 17 July 2022: PDP nominee Ademola Adeleke is declared winner of the off-cycle Osun State gubernatorial election that took place the day before, gaining the office for the party; the APC nominee comes a close second place.[429]
  • 20 July 2022: The appearance of people wearing liturgical garments at the formal Shettima nomination rally leads to controversy as the APC claims the people are clergy while Christian groups and activists mock the group as paid actors without genuine congregations.[430][431][432][433]
  • 1 August 2022: After the end of the voter registration period the day before, INEC announces nearly 12.3 million new registered voters.[351]
  • 15 September 2022: The first public presidential poll is released. Conducted by NOI Polls for the Anap Foundation, the results show Obi in a slight lead at 21% with Tinubu and Abubakar close behind at 13% each.[434]
  • 20 September 2022:
    • Ezenwo Nyesom Wike (PDP)—Governor of Rivers State and runner-up in the PDP presidential primary—withdraws from the Abubakar campaign along with several of his allies. The grouping,[ر] which had been feuding with Abubakar for months, announced their refusal to assist the PDP presidential campaign until PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu—an Abubakar ally from Benue State—left his position in favor of a southerner.[435]
    • INEC releases the final list of recognized presidential and vice presidential nominees.[302]

Campaign period

  • 28 September 2022:
    • Official campaign period commences.[436]
    • The PDP Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated at the formal commencement of the Abubakar campaign.[437]
  • 29 September 2022: Most candidates along with parties' chairmen sign a peace accord in Abuja; Tinubu is absent and sends Shettima as his representative.
  • 6 October 2022: Tinubu returns to Nigeria after spending over a week abroad on an undisclosed trip.[438]
  • 15 October 2022: Abubakar says that 'northerners do not need Yoruba or Igbo candidates' at an event. The comment is heavily criticized by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions.[439]
  • 21 October 2022: Tinubu releases his eight-point policy agenda along with his full manifesto before the revised APC Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated at the formal commencement of his campaign.[440][441]
  • 28 October 2022: The revised LP Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated.[442]
  • 29 October 2022: A rally in Lafia marks the formal commencement of the Obi campaign.[443]
  • 6 November 2022: The first multi-candidate presidential town hall is hosted by Arise News and the Centre for Democracy and Development; while Obi and Kwankwaso attend, Abubakar was represented by Okowa and Tinubu declined to attend.[ز][444]
  • 8 November 2022: News outlets publish newly certified United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois' documents outlining Tinubu's forfeiture of $460,000 alleged to be the proceeds of drug dealing in 1993.[445]
  • 14 November 2022: The second multi-candidate presidential town hall is hosted by Arise News and the Centre for Democracy and Development for minor candidates; four candidates attended: Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Yabagi Sani (ADP), Peter Umeadi (APGA), and Adewole Adebayo (SDP).[446]
  • 18 November 2022: A poll on rural communities is released by Nextier; the results show Obi leading at 40% with Abubakar in second at 27%, Tinubu in third at 20%, and Kwankwaso in fourth at 5%.[447]
  • 20 November 2022: Wike and four other allied PDP governors[س] form the "Integrity Group" at a meeting in Lagos, continuing the anti-Abubakar movement within the PDP.[448]
  • 3 December 2022: Obi releases his seven policy priorities along with his full manifesto.[449]
  • 4 December 2022: The third multi-candidate presidential town hall is hosted by Arise News and the Centre for Democracy and Development with Abubakar, Obi, and Kwankwaso in attendance; days prior Tinubu had announced his boycott due to alleged media bias against him.[450]
  • 12 December 2022: An attack on an INEC office in Owerri is repulsed, but a police officer is killed along with three assailants.[451] It is the third attack on INEC installations in Imo State since the start of the month, amidst rising concerns over violence during the electoral process.[365][368]
  • 20 December 2022: Okupe resigns as Obi campaign director-general a day after being convicted for money laundering in connection to the 2015 Dasukigate scandal.[452][453]
  • 8 January 2023: Audio alleged to be of Abubakar from June 2018 is released by his former aide Mike Achimugu. In the recording, Abubakar describes the methods he and then-President Olusegun Obasanjo used to siphon public funds during their 1999—2007 administration.[454]
  • 11 January 2023:
    • INEC vows to hold the elections as scheduled, a day after a commission official warned that the elections could be postponed if the wave of attacks on INEC offices was not abated.[378][377][379]
    • INEC releases the final voter registration statistics, with a total of 93,469,008 eligible voters.[364]
  • 7 February 2023: Stears releases the results of its national poll in accompaniment with a predictive model; results show Obi in the lead but with the caveat that Obi's lead would grow if turnout was high while Tinubu would lead if turnout was low.[455]
  • 9 February 2023: The National Universities Commission orders the closure of all universities from 22 February to 14 March, a move intended to both allow students to return home to vote and assuage concerns about university safety in case of election turmoil.[456]
  • 22 February 2023: Candidates along with other notable political figures sign a peace accord in Abuja.[457]
  • 23 February 2023:
    • INEC releases the Permanent Voter Card collection statistics, with a total of 87,209,007 voters (93.3% of all registered voters) having collected their PVCs by the end of the collection window.[385]
    • Official campaign period ends.

Summary

Pre-campaign period

For both nominees of the major party, the early parts of the general election campaign in June and July 2022 were dominated by attempts to unify their parties amid the search for a running mate. For Tinubu, the selection of Ibrahim Masari as a placeholder running mate in mid-June bought the APC several weeks to continue party reconciliation efforts as controversy swirled over the religious affiliation of Tinubu's potential running mates. On the other hand, Abubakar had to contend with a burgeoning party crisis as allies of Governor Nyesom Wike—first runner up in the PDP primary—began to publicly protest against the perceived disrespect towards Wike; their protests centered around Abubakar's disregard for a party committee recommendation of Wike for the vice presidential nomination but some PDP figures also objected to Abubakar in general due to the violation of zoning. The upheaval reached the point of Wike allies publicly questioning if they would support Abubakar and privately threatening to leave the party while national party chairman Iyorchia Ayu's neutrality was questioned and Abubakar himself spent weeks abroad in the midst of the crisis.[458][459][460] As the PDP desperately attempted to reconcile Wike and Abubakar, Obi and Kwankwaso held meetings with Wike in an attempt to bring him into their respective parties.[461][462][463][464] These meetings took place as representatives of Obi and Kwankwaso were also meeting in an attempt to form a NNPP-LP coalition; however, these negotiations were derailed in early July when Kwankwaso publicly refused to be Obi's vice presidential running mate on the grounds that northerners would not vote for a southeasterner.[465][466] A few days later, Obi's campaign announced that the coalition discussions had failed and that the campaign had shifted towards the search for a vice presidential nominee which ended in the selection of Baba-Ahmed.[427] As the LP ticket constituted, the PDP crisis continued as Wike publicly met with several APC governors on 8 July while Abubakar extended his stay abroad despite the party infighting, Eid al-Kabir, and the Osun gubernatorial election campaign in mid-July.[467][468][469] For Tinubu, when he finally selected Shettima as his running mate on 10 July, immediate blowback confronted his campaign amid accusations of religious intolerance for the Muslim-Muslim ticket with even some other APC members condemning the ticket.[99][470] Later in July, Abubakar returned to the nation while Tinubu was in a difficult position as backlash against the APC ticket continued and his relative—incumbent Osun Governor Gboyega Oyetola—lost to PDP nominee Ademola Adeleke in the Osun gubernatorial election;[428][471] similarly, questions emerged over Labour's weak showings in both Osun and Ekiti.[472] Takeaways from the gubernatorial election focused on the potential impact of the PDP's victory on the presidential race and the extremely successful election administration from INEC.[473] To make matters worse for the Tinubu campaign, the appearance of people wearing liturgical garments of various Christian denominations at Shettima's nomination rally on 20 July led to further backlash since observers noted the group's lack of identification and the Christian Association of Nigeria publicly challenged the APC to name the supposed clergy.[430][431][432]

By late July and early August, Tinubu and Abubakar continued to face high-profile dissent from within their own parties as prominent northern Christian APC members—like former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir David Lawal and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Yakubu Dogara—publicly condemned the same religion APC ticket while Wike and his allies continued their public criticism of Abubakar and PDP leadership.[474][475][476][477][478][479] In response, Tinubu appointed Governor of Plateau State Simon Lalong—a northern Christian—as the Director-General of his Campaign Council while in early August, Abubakar and Wike finally met for the first time since Okowa's selection and agreed on a reconciliation framework.[480][481][482][483][484][485][486] However, both the APC and PDP backslid into their respective crises as protests against the APC ticket drew thousands and it continued to come under fire from prominent northern Christians while the opposing camps within the PDP had returned to public squabbling by mid-August.[487][488][489][490][491] Around the same time, voter registration ended with analysts noting its effect on the race as a whole.[492] The rest of August was dominated by notable meetings as Wike meet with both Tinubu and Obi before another reconciliatory summit with Abubakar;[493][494][495] while pundits speculated that Tinubu and Obi attempted to sway Wike to their camps, reporting on the series of Wike-Abubakar talks revealed some of Wike's demands with a focus on the resignation of PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu.[496][497][498] The location of these meetings in London, United Kingdom sparked controversy as critics labeled the location as insensitive to the plight of Nigerians domestically.[499][500] Around the same time, observers noted a potential opening for Kwankwaso but even his NNPP devolved into crisis in August as the PDP poached a key Kano State figure from the NNPP amid a threeway fight for the state's massive electorate.[501][502][503][504] Further reporting began to focus on specific states and regions as ThisDay analysis surmised that the PDP was strengthening in previously pro-Buhari states in the North West, the APC was retaining its prime position in the South West but the LP was growing among urban youth, it was Obi vs. Abubakar in the South South and South East, and the North Central was a tossup region.[505] In the weeks afterwards and as candidate profiles were released in preparation for the official campaign period's commencement at the end of September, the PDP desperately attempted to end its crisis by having two northerners holding prominent internal party positions be replaced by southerners but as Ayu remained in office as chairman, Wike continued his public indignation before he and his allies[ر] announced their withdrawal from PDP campaigning on 20 September until Ayu left office.[506][507][508][435] Due to the PDP infighting, pundits looking ahead to the campaign period began to speculate on the potential benefits for Tinubu and Obi as several Wike allies are influential in key states.[509][510] At the same time, the first public poll of the race was released with Obi in the lead;[434] although the campaigns of Abubakar and Tinubu dismissed the results, analysts noted enthusiasm among Obi's base due to his active campaigning as a potential reason for his lead considering both Abubakar and Tinubu devoted more effort to intraparty reconciliation from May to September.[511]

Campaign period

At the end of September, the official campaign period began with the signing of a peace accord in Abuja by nearly all candidates along with parties' national chairmen; notably, Tinubu was absent with Shettima as his representative.[512][513] During the week, Abubakar and Tinubu formed their campaign councils amid controversy for both as the Wike dispute continued in the PDP while the composition of the APC campaign council led to internal disquiet.[514] For Obi, his campaign received another positive polling result as he led a Bloomberg News-commissioned poll by a massive margin;[515] he was also buoyed by significant nationwide support rallies on Independence Day but faced difficulties in campaign organizing as his manifesto and campaign council were delayed.[516][517][518] Overall, late September and early October was categorized similarly to the pre-campaign period time, with analysis repeatedly noting that Obi was solidifying support and enthusiasm while Abubakar and Tinubu were occupied trying to stop further intraparty rebellion.[ش][517] However, Obi promptly faced scandal due to the controversial initial makeup of his campaign council which forced a retraction and review after backlash from supporters and the LP.[520][521] A few days later, the race was derailed by a video of Abubakar calling for northerners to reject Yoruba or Igbo candidates; the comment met with widespread condemnation by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions.[439][522] Meanwhile, Tinubu and the APC revised their campaign council to address internal objections before holding a formal campaign commencement on 21 October where Buhari unveiled Tinubu's manifesto before inaugurating the campaign council.[523][524] Around the same time, campaigning focused on catastrophic nationwide floods with analysts noting that the floods had put more focus on climate change and wider environmental policy issues amid the campaign period.[525] Obi preparations concluded near the end of the month, as the revised LP campaign council was inaugurated on 28 October and the campaign's commencement rally held the next day.[442][443][526]

At the start of November, debates began with a series of multi-candidate town halls hosted by Arise News and the Centre for Democracy and Development commencing on 6 November; with a focus on security and the economy, the four most prominent candidates were invited—Abubakar, Kwankwaso, Obi, and Tinubu—but Abubakar sent Okowa as his proxy while Tinubu declined the invitation and was replaced by Kola Abiola, the nominee of the People's Redemption Party.[527][444] Amid the town halls, controversy swirled for Tinubu as the publication of certified documents from the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois detailing his 1993 forfeiture of alleged drug dealing proceeds led to attacks from Obi and Abubakar while the Tinubu campaign claimed that the money was tax-related and analysts speculated on the documents' effect on voting intentions.[445][528][529] Meanwhile, Abubakar faced mixed news as the PDP crisis continued with Wike-led, anti-Abubakar PDP governors forming the "Integrity Group" and a rift forming with another incumbent governor in mid-November;[530][531][532][533] on the other hand, a northern APC dissenter group led by former House Speaker Yakubu Dogara endorsed Abubakar on 2 December.[534] Previously, Obi led another poll as a Nextier survey of rural communities released in mid-November showed him in the lead with over 40%.[447] At the beginning of December, various state LP chapters entered crisis but Obi avoided involvement and instead released his oft-delayed manifesto with seven key policy areas.[535][449][536][537] The manifesto release came just before another Arise-CDD town hall; however, Tinubu had announced his boycott of the event due to alleged media bias so only Abubakar, Obi, and Kwankwaso attended on 4 December.[450]

Later in December, the Obi campaign was hit by a court ruling against its Director-General—Doyin Okupe, convicting him of money laundering in connection to the 2015 Dasukigate scandal.[452] Although Okupe appealed the judgment, the controversy led to his resignation from the campaign with journalist Akin Osuntokun replacing him.[453][538] Meanwhile, the reporting revealed that "Integrity Group" were deliberating over which candidate to endorse at their London meetings in late December;[539] a side attendee of the meetings—former President Olusegun Obasanjo—reportedly advised the group to endorse Obi, which Obasanjo himself later did in a public letter on New Year's Day.[540] Into the new year, analysis shifted to review the chances of each major candidate as the prospect of a runoff looked increasingly possible.[541] While pundits initially contended that Tinubu would benefit from the campaign support of Buhari and the "federal might" of his administration, questions arose over the relationship between Buhari and Tinubu after Buhari skipped several campaign events and defended the controversial new naira notes that Tinubu claimed were an attempt to disrupt his campaign.[542][543][544][545][546][547] For Abubakar, reporting focused on two corruption scandals along with his nationwide campaigning (especially in the North).[454][548][549] Observers reiterated that Kwankwaso had not appeared to make significant headway outside of his native North West while reports claimed Obi's chances were based on his campaign's ability to successfully turnout voters in the South East in addition to geographically broadening his support across the nation despite the lack of significant LP party structure.[548][550][551]

The final month of the campaign period was dominated by naira crisis and its political implications.[552] The new banknote policy of Buhari and CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele was intended to curb vote buying ahead of the election but poor implementation led to shortages of the new currency.[553] Tinubu and several prominent APC figures publicly broke with Buhari for some of the first times over the policy, first suing to stop its enactment then lambasting the administration after Buhari stood by the policy.[554][555][556] For the PDP, the G5 failed to publicize their joint preferred candidate and appeared to split as Benue Governor Samuel Ortom endorsed Obi while Wike reportedly backed Tinubu.[557][558][559] For his part, Abubakar focused on his economic plans and national unity in his final campaign stops, rather then party divisions.[560] Similarly, Obi rounded out the campaign with large rallies in Lagos that spotlighted his support of reforms to fight corruption and create jobs;[561] however, the events were marred by violence as mass coordinated attacks on LP supporters before the rallies reinforced fears of further violence on Election Day.[562] As the campaigns concluded, focus returned to polling as releases from Nextier, Stears, Premise Data for Bloomberg, NIO Polls for the Anap Foundation, and Redfield & Wilton Strategies all issued polls in the months of January and February that showed Obi in the lead and sparking discourse on the surge of polling compared to previous elections.[563][455][564][565][566][567] In addition to polling, Stears notably created a predictive model that estimated that Obi would win by a significant margin if voter turnout was high while low turnout would lead to a Tinubu victory.[455] To end the campaign, all candidates signed another peace accord at an Abuja event attended by Buhari, Abubakar, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu in addition to other candidates and major political figures on 23 February, the final day of the campaign period.[568]

Polling

Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png Peter Obi.png
Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.jpg
 Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg Others Undecided None/No response/Refused
Tinubu
APC 		Obi
LP 		Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Abubakar
PDP
NIO Polls for Anap Foundation September 2022 1,000 13% 21% 3% 13% 1% 32% 17%
Premise Data for Bloomberg 5–20 September 2022 3,027 16% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)|72% – 9% 4% – –
Commencement of the official campaign period. (28 September 2022)
NIO Polls for Anap Foundation December 2022 1,000 13% 23% 2% 10% – 29% 23%
Nextier January 2023 3,000 24% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)|37% 6% 27% 1% – 5%
Stears January 2023 6,220 15.5% 27.4% 2% 12.3% – 37.5% –
Premise Data for Bloomberg 26 January-4 February 2023 2,384 18% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)|66% – 10% 6% – –
NIO Polls for Anap Foundation February 2023 2,000 13% 21% 3% 10% – 23% 30%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 10-12 February 2023 3,351 22% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)|62% 3% 12% 1% – –

Graphical summary

Election debates and town halls

At the start of November, fora began as individual town halls moderated by Kadaria Ahmed were held throughout the month while a series of multi-candidate town halls hosted by Arise News and the Centre for Democracy and Development commenced on 6 November.[569][444] With a focus on security and the economy, the four most prominent candidates were invited—Abubakar, Kwankwaso, Obi, and Tinubu—but Abubakar sent Okowa as his proxy while Tinubu declined the invitation and was replaced by Kola Abiola, the nominee of the People's Redemption Party.[527][444] The non-attendance sparked controversy as Abubakar and Tinubu were criticized for non-engagement with public debates by the Obi campaign which later vowed to boycott events without the presence of Abubakar or Tinubu.[570][571] During the debate, Obi labeled poverty as a key source of violence and attacked the incumbent administration on security failures while vowing to remove fuel subsidies; Okowa backed the creation of state police forces along with targeted job creation methods; Kwankwaso identified educational failures as a cause of both insecurity and economic issues; and Abiola labeled poor leadership as a key factor in security failures.[572]

The Arise-CDD series continued with a minor candidate town hall on 14 November where alternative security methods and the economy dominated discussion.[446][573] Although a Nigerian Economic Summit Group-hosted economic debate was scheduled for the next day, it was canceled due to "prevailing circumstances."[574][575] Major candidates returned on 4 December to the Arise-CDD series with Obi, Kwankwaso, and Abubakar but Tinubu publicly declined the invitation and accused Arise of biased unprofessionalism.[576] Despite Tinubu's absence, the town hall went ahead with a focus on education, healthcare, poverty, and human capital development—all three candidates lamented poor educational quality and brain drain with Obi targeting low investment in education as the source of the issue.[577] Notably, when asked if they would commit to using Nigerian health services, Abubakar refused while Obi and Kwankwaso acceded.[578] A few weeks later in January, a Nigerian Elections Debate Group-organized debate set for 26 January was postponed due to logistical problems;[579] the debate was instead held on 12 February. Despite inviting all four major candidates, only Kwankwaso and Obi confirmed their attendance; however, technical issues with the Obi campaign airplane prevented him from attending and left just Kwankwaso to answer questions.[580][581][582]

2023 Nigerian presidential election debates and town halls
Date Organisers     P  Present[ص]    S  Surrogate[ض]    R  Present replacement[ط]  
 NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee   N  No debate
ADP AAC APC APGA LP NNPP PDP PRP SDP Other parties Ref.
6 November 2022 Arise News and the CDD NI NI A
Tinubu 		NI P
Obi 		P
Kwankwaso 		S
Okowa 		R
Abiola 		NI NI
Multiple 		[583]
14 November 2022 Arise News and the CDD P
Sani 		P
Sowore 		NI P
Umeadi 		NI NI NI NI P
Adebayo 		NI
Multiple 		[584]
15 November 2022 NESG and NEDG NI NI N
Tinubu 		NI N
Obi 		N
Kwankwaso 		N
Abubakar 		NI NI NI
Multiple 		[585]
4 December 2022 Arise News and the CDD NI NI A
Tinubu 		NI P
Obi 		P
Kwankwaso 		P
Abubakar 		NI NI NI
Multiple 		[586]
12 February 2022 NEDG NI NI A
Tinubu 		NI A
Obi 		P
Kwankwaso 		A
Abubakar 		NI NI NI
Multiple 		[582]

Issues

In the wake of party primaries, several major factors for the upcoming general election campaign were noted, namely: ethnic and religious identity, the role of Buhari and his incumbency power, the economy, corruption, the personal brands of candidates, and public anger with the political status quo.[587] Ahead of the official campaign period, major candidates were to release their policy documents: Abubakar did so in late May but Obi and Tinubu did not unveil their policy documents until after the campaign period commenced in September 2022 with Tinubu releasing his manifesto in mid-October and Obi releasing his manifesto in early December. As the campaign developed, other issues like climate change and sports development rose to prominence.[588][589] However, civil society reports from January 2023 claimed that the majority of campaigning was not based on policy issues as personality politics, identity politics, and negative campaigning overtook policy discussion.[590]

Corruption

Nigeria has lost hundreds of billions of United States dollars from corruption since independence and its Corruption Perceptions Index score has worsened since 2016.[591] However, after the primaries, analysts noted the unlikelihood of corruption becoming a massive electoral issue as both Abubakar and Tinubu have credible, longstanding major corruption allegations; Obi's candidacy slightly altered this dynamic as allegations against him are more minor. Another reason for the low focus on corruption was the failure of Buhari's anti-corruption war, the promise of which was central to his 2015 campaign.[592] While more major issues like insecurity and poverty have taken centre stage, corruption is still a pervasive policy problem.[593]

For Abubakar, although there are some allegations surrounding his civil service career, much of the graft alleged is based on a United States Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs report from 2010 that directly implicated Abubakar and his family in a massive intercontinental bribery scheme.[594] The report, issued in the wake of the William J. Jefferson corruption case which also implicated Abubakar,[595][596] stated that Abubakar's then-wife Jennifer Iwenjiora Douglas brought over $40 million in “suspect funds” into the United States while Abubakar was Vice President with the sources of those funds being bribes given to Abubakar by businesses in exchange for preferential treatment and contracts in a process akin to crony capitalism.[593][594] These bribes and other suspect cash transfers led the American government's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to later place Abubakar and his wives on an international banking surveillance watchlist.[597] Abubakar has repeatedly denied the report's findings since its release in 2010. Accusations against Tinubu were also serious but different to Atiku's; in a form of corruption associated with the term state capture, Tinubu is alleged to have continuously hijacked billions of naira in Lagos State internal revenue for his own personal and political aims.[593] Through a law he signed while governor, Alpha Beta Consulting—a company heavily linked to and alleged to be directly controlled by Tinubu and his allies—has the sole right to collect state taxes and receives a 10% commission[ظ] for the collection.[593] The founder of Alpha Beta alleges that Tinubu has directly profited from the allocation for about twenty years plus Tinubu is under active investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission as of June 2021.[593][599] Coupled with the state capture controversy is Tinubu's forfeiture of about $460,000 to the United States government in 1993 as a result of a case asserting that the government had "probable cause" to believe Tinubu's American bank accounts held the proceeds of heroin dealing; reporting showed that Tinubu had served as a bagman for two Chicago heroin dealers in the early 1990s.[593][600][601] For Obi, there are not major scandals although he was mentioned in the Pandora Papers leaks surrounding offshore companies for tax evasion.[602]

In his platform, Abubakar identified corruption as a 'major problem' that "denies millions of people their fundamental freedoms and human rights" before vowing to enact "institutional reforms of anti-corruption agencies" to strengthen them along with creating a "comprehensive National Anti-corruption Strategy."[603] However, Tinubu's manifesto noted fighting corruption as a benefit of its civil service and judicial reforms.[604][605] Review of anti-corruption plans from the Premium Times noted Tinubu's focus on wealth distribution to fight corruption along with criticism of the idea's potential effectiveness.[606] In his manifesto, Obi placed fighting corruption among his seven priorities with a direct plan to establish the "Office of Special Counsel" to prosecute abuse of power and corruption that "do not fall under the prosecutorial power of existing agencies."[449] While analysts noted the potential difficulty Obi could have getting legislation passed to institute his anti-corruption plans, he was commended for explaining a concrete framework on the topic.[606]

Corruption rose to prominence several times over the course of the campaign period, but mainly specific scandals rather than differences in policy on the issue. In November, news outlets published newly certified United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois' documents outlining Tinubu's drug dealing-connected money forfeiture in 1993.[445] Although the Tinubu campaign denied the allegations, observers noted that Tinubu himself did not speak on the subject.[607] A few weeks later in early January, Abubakar faced two scandals: a campaign speech he gave in Abeokuta and audio alleged to be of Abubakar admitting to corruption. In the speech, Abubakar said only people who won their polling units for the PDP would receive government jobs or contracts if he wins the presidency, thus inadvertently admitting that government appointments and contracts would be awarded based on party loyalty in his potential administration.[608] In the recording (released by his estranged former aide Mike Achimugu), Abubakar describes the method—special-purpose vehicles (SPVs)—that he and then-President Olusegun Obasanjo used to siphon public funds during their 1999—2007 administration.[454] Both controversies sparked condemnation with a Tinubu spokesperson filing a lawsuit against anti-corruption agencies hoping to compelled them to arrest Abubakar in the wake of the audio release.[609] In response, the Atiku campaign attacked Tinubu for diverting Lagosian public funds through Alpha Beta and called on the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency to arrest Tinubu for drug trafficking.[610]

Economy

The years ahead of the election were extremely difficult for the national economy as several debilitating recessions and high inflation greatly decelerated economic growth amid increasing unemployment.[611] Coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, food prices have skyrocketed and millions of people are projected to fall into poverty if current trends hold.[612][613][614][615][616] In addition, the country is at risk of losing its frontier market status due to a shortage in United States dollars and the poor economic situation has led to fears to further social unrest.[617][618] While Buhari has repeatedly claimed that his administration has improved the nation, some analysts blamed his economic policies for compounding the crisis as massive borrowing plus underwhelming revenue led total debt payment to exceed government's revenue by mid-2022.[619][620][621][622][623] Other analysts have taken a still negative but more mixed view of Buhari's economic policies noting the signing of the Petroleum Industry Act and agricultural production improvements while reiterating the failures in economic growth, high inflation, rising debt, and high unemployment.[624]

As the campaign period began, analysts noted that the three major candidates had broke with Buhari on economic issues with more business-friendly rhetoric and support for further devolution of certain resource control to the states; however, the candidates differ on messages and detailed plans.[625] Similar to his 2019 campaign, the focus of Abubakar's economic agenda revolves around privatisation of government-owned businesses targeting the rail network, oil refineries, and power transmission along with ending the remaining government monopolies in other infrastructure sectors.[625] The other two points of his economic plan are increased commitments to public-private partnerships and allowing "the market greater leverage in determining prices.”[626] While critics like the electricity workers' union derided the privatisation proposal as "retrogressive" and noted the numerous failures of previous privatisations, the Abubakar campaign defended the plan as necessary for "sustainable growth" and good national budgeting.[627][628] Abubakar stated that these ideas along with a close public-private sector relationship could double the GDP within seven years.[625] For Obi, time was spent studying other countries' economics prior to the release of his policy plans; in interviews, he lamented the inefficiency of the Nigerian economy and floated reforming the fuel subsidy system—the subsidies, long-maligned by economists but popular among politicians, are projected to cost the government over 4 trillion naira in 2022 and 6.7 trillion naira in 2023.[629][630] Later overview of his economic policies in addition to more interviews showed that Obi focused on financial "prudence" with emphasis on saving money and streamlining spending.[625] Like Obi and Abubakar, Tinubu backed expansion of public-private partnerships but he is also in favor of introducing commodity exchange and futures markets.[625] Furthermore, Tinubu backed the creation of regional economic development agencies for each geopolitical zone, blockchain regulatory reform, increased crude oil production, and tax enforcement/devolution along with the deregulation of gas prices and the phasing out of the fuel subsidy system in favor of alternative government investments.[605][625][631][632][633][634] Analysis of the Tinubu plans warned of the extreme debt needed to finance the reforms and policies.[635] When released, the Obi manifesto put emphasis on shifting the national economy to focus on exports in addition to wide-scale agrarian reform to boost productivity. Additionally, Obi planned to lessen the cost of government and backed investment to transition to a green economy amid worsening climate change.[449]

Analysis of economic plans noted a joint focus on agricultural growth to drive economic improvement, but a severe lack of detailed blueprints from the manifestos of Tinubu and Abubakar.[636] On the other hand, the Obi manifesto's focus on improved access to funding for farmers and standardising mechanised farming along with wider logistics reform drew praise from analysts.[637]

Education

The Nigerian education system faced consistent challenges on all levels in the years before the election as UNICEF noted about 20 million out-of-school children in 2022 while also showcasing issues in early childhood education and primary school attendance, especially among girls and in the North.[ع][638][639][640] While UNICEF and the federal government have formed plans to improve education and enroll children in school, two matters severely hurt the education at-large directly ahead of the election and have made the topic a campaign issue: the impact of insecurity on schools and four university strikes including the nine-month long and the eight-month long 2020 and 2022 Academic Staff Union of Universities strikes respectively.[641][642][643][644][645] Amidst rising insecurity in 2021 and 2022, both mass kidnappings of schoolchildren and preemptive school closures for safety have made education extremely dangerous while the government-ASUU dispute and the union's ensuing strike led to mass protests as activists criticized the alleged indifference of the Buhari administration.[646]

During the early part of the general election campaign, Obi called on the federal government to hold productive negotiations with ASUU to end university closures while explaining that he intended on using savings from reforming the fuel subsidy to invest in education; Obi supporters also noted the large educational improvements in Anambra State during his term as governor.[647][648][649] In his policy document, Abubakar labeled the ASUU strike as an example of the "incessant industrial action" facing the nation while noting the failures of the public education system; one of his five points is to "improve and strengthen the education system" and later in the platform, Abubakar proposed creating "an agency for the regulation of private tertiary education," vowed to promote science and technical education, and suggested partially devolving education to the state level.[603] For Tinubu's part, education was also one of his agenda's "points" and his manifesto noted the importance of education to national development while vowing to upgrade educational infrastructure, end classroom overcrowding, and increase the number of trained teachers.[605] In his manifesto, Obi vowed to introduce a "No Child left Behind" educational policy along with reviewing and improving the functions of the Universal Basic Education Commission and Tertiary Education Trust Fund.[449]

Ethnic identity

Identification as Nigerian or Member of an Ethnic Group poll[650]
The 2022 API Social Cohesion Survey

  "I feel equally (ethnic) and Nigerian" (36%)
  "I feel more (ethnic) than Nigerian" (35%)
  "I feel only (ethnic)" (15%)
  "I feel more Nigerian than (ethnic) " (10%)
  "I feel only Nigerian" (4%)

Although political questions on identity are often based on region and religion, ethnicity also plays a role as the election is the first presidential election since 1983 with three major candidates each from the three largest ethnic groups as Abubakar is Hausa–Fulani,[غ] Obi is Igbo, and Tinubu is Yoruba.

As the Igbo are the sole group of the largest three ethnicities to have never produced an elected executive president, Igbo groups like Ohanaeze Ndigbo called for an Igbo to be elected president and protested when the major parties nominated Abubakar and Tinubu.[651] The group also condemned Igbos who accepted the vice presidential slot, a direct slight to PDP vice presidential nominee Okowa.[خ][652] For Tinubu's part, prior to the primary, he claimed that it was 'the turn of the Yorubas' to lead the country in a fiery Yoruba language campaign speech in Abeokuta.[653] Coupled with controversy over Abubakar's northern origins was the fact that he is an ethnic Fulani, just like Buhari.[654]

During the campaign, Abubakar was intensely rebuked by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions in an October speech where he said that 'northerners did not need Yoruba or Igbo candidates.' The direct appeal to ethnic jingoism also may have violated Section 97 of the Electoral Act 2022 and led to fears of ethnic-based electoral violence.[439][655][656] Later that month, ethnicity again rose to the forefront of the campaign as Afenifere—an influential Yoruba socio-cultural organization—became deeply divided over whether to support Tinubu or Obi.[657] By December, Abubakar tried to change his ethnic rhetoric, referring to himself as "the stepping stone to an Igbo presidency" in an attempt to win back Igbo support;[658] however, reporting showed a generally negative reaction to the comment.[659]


Infrastructure

Facing major infrastructural problems across the nation like a lack of urban public transportation and a largely deteriorated highway network due to an absence of maintenance is a constant in election campaigns.[660][661] In terms of performance, although the Buhari administration invested in and expanded some transportation projects—like the Lagos–Kano Standard Gauge Railway and Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport rehabilitation, the 2019–2023 term saw continued failures in providing basic access to electricity culminating in multiple massive power grid collapses in 2022.[16][662][663] Still the billions spent on other new infrastructure projects like the Lekki Deep Sea Port and gas pipelines have proven fruitful as more projects begin operations despite setbacks and delays.[664] However, later reporting reiterated that the nation could not afford the debts incurred for projects with little guarantee of proper maintenance.[665]

The new Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport terminal interior.

In his manifesto, Tinubu promised to "modernise and expand public infrastructure" through his "National Infrastructure Campaign" wherein unemployed workers would be hired to upgrade infrastructure like the highway and water supply systems.[605] Additionally, the platform announced the "Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP)" plan to use technology and improved monitoring to "eliminate attacks on vital national infrastructure" such as illegal oil bunkering.[605] For Obi's part, his plans focused on coordinating different forms of transportation and the agencies that regulate them in addition to establishing a National Transport Commission as an integrated regulator.[449] While Abubakar's policy document did not provide detailed infrastructural plans, he did promise to "break [the] government monopoly in all infrastructure sectors" in line with his other economically liberal policy positions. The PDP nominee's platform also vowed to accelerate infrastructural investment and, more specifically, diversify the nation's sources of power and deliver up to 25,000 MW by 2030 through "power sector reform."[603] Review of energy infrastructure plans noted Tinubu's identification of power issues but lack of explanation on the funding sources for his proposed solutions while Abubakar's was derided for its vagueness and brevity.[666] Obi's energy plan was praised for its structure and identification of alternative energy sources, though the viability of its wind power idea was questioned by analysts.[637]

Insecurity

The years ahead of the election were marked by a deteriorating security situation nationwide. While further advances in the fight against terrorists in the northeast led to thousands of refugees being able to return to their communities, the situation in the rest of the nation became increasingly dire: North West—the deadly bandit conflict in addition to terrorist expansion; North Central—herder-farmer and interethnic conflicts along with more terrorist expansion, Niger Delta—pirates and illegal oil bunkering gangs, and South East—a violent separatist movement.[24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] Coupled with the regional crises, the continued proliferation of kidnapping and mob violence along with an epidemic of security force brutality have affected the entire country and led to increasing reliance on vigilantes and public anger at the perceived indifference of the administration.[667][34][668][669][670][671][672] The election itself also is affected by the security crisis as civil society groups noted the possibility for electoral violence stemming from pre-existing violent groups.[673]

During the primaries and early general election campaign, several notable attacks[ف] led to ever-increasing focus on the security plans of major presidential candidates as the death toll mounted and violent non-state actors increased in power.[674] For Tinubu, his longtime support for state police was expected to be the pinnacle of his security plan but it was not included in his manifesto, which instead spotlighted plans for specialized anti-terrorist battalions (ABATTS), improving community relations, and secure forested areas often used as bandit hideouts;[605][675] however, analysts had noted that the failure of the Buhari administration on security could hurt Tinubu on the issue.[676] Obi focused on security force cooperation and reform in his manifesto while noting the root causes of insecurity in speeches by highlighting his job creation plans while Abubakar similarly pitched his job creation plan while proposing more police officers along with logistical registration and alternative conflict resolution means in his policy document.[675][449][603] Obi's commitments to reform to address security force brutality also led his campaign to receive large amounts of support from backers of the End SARS movement.[677][678] Although Tinubu, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Abubakar all had long security segments in their manifestos, reporting noted the similar vagueness of their plans.[679][637][680] Notable differences included Obi directly supporting the establishment of state police forces along with both Kwankwaso and Abubakar proposing an increase in the amount of police officers to one million.[681]

National unity

Unity and Division poll[682]
The 2022 API Social Cohesion Survey

  Feel that Nigeria is "Much more divided" than 2017 (66%)
  Feel that Nigerian unity "stayed the same" compared to 2017 (20%)
  Feel that Nigeria is "Much more united" than 2017 (10%)
  "I'm not sure" (4%)

While polls showed low levels of affinity for the nation and high dissatisfaction with the status quo, reports also demonstrated that the vast majority of citizens feel connected to their Nigerian identity; however, the vast majority also fear for Nigerian unity.[683] The Abubakar's campaign prioritized national unity by including it as the first of his five-point agenda while noting that "Nigeria's unity has never been threatened like now." His countermeasures focused on "co-operation and consensus" along with 'true federalism.'[603] For Tinubu, his platform mentioned including "national unity and pride" in educational curricula while Obi's manifesto vowed to "operate a government of national unity" in accordance with the federal character principle.[605][449]

Regional identity

The six geopolitical zones of Nigeria.

The election marks a return to presidential elections with major candidates from around the nation after the all-Northern election in 2019. The majority of early discussion on regional identity revolved around the zoning principle and the failure of the PDP to adhere to it.[684][654] While pundits noted that the regional power-sharing "federal character" principle was at times disregarded by the Buhari administration, some analysts expressed worry for a political system that normalizes regional exclusion.[685][686] Further discussion centered on both major parties' failure to microzone their nominations to the South East; according to some southeastern groups, the South East should have produced the next president as it has never produced an elected president. The largest of these groups, Igbo socio-cultural organization Ohanaeze Ndigbo, accused the APC and PDP of an apparent "conspiracy" against ethnic Igbos amid other groups' calls to support Obi—a native of Anambra State.[687][688]

As the campaign began, analysis reports on the candidates' prospects by region emerged with reports on if Tinubu could hold the APC's northern strength when facing a major northern opponent;[689] similarly, questions on if Abubakar could hold the PDP's southern strength when facing two major southern opponents also took a primary role in analysis.[690] In the search for running mate, major candidates sought to achieve regional balance as northerner Abubakar picked southerner Okowa while southerners Obi and Tinubu chose northerners Baba-Ahmed and Shettima, respectively.

During the campaign, region-based questions emerged with pundits questioning if Shettima's laudation of former dictator Sani Abacha would hurt Tinubu outside of a select few Northern areas were Abacha is not reviled;[691] later, it was speculated that Abubakar's jingoist October statement was a play for Northern votes as Tinubu and Obi targeted the region.[692] Additionally, questions emerged over the South as pundits noted the possibility that Obi and Abubakar could split the PDP's former southern base;[693] there were also questions about the potential impact on southeastern turnout if separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu was released from imprisonment.[694]

Religious identity

Due to the nation's religious diversity, a key tenet of power-sharing are tickets with running mates of the different religions;[695][696] however, like zoning, this principle was challenged in the lead-up to the election as allies of then-aspirant Tinubu alleged that there were few influential Northern Christian APC politicians who could be his running mate and thus, Tinubu could pick a northern Muslim instead.[697][698] As Tinubu is himself Muslim, such a pick would comprise a Muslim-Muslim ticket to the anger of groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria;[699][700][696] a same religion ticket was also noted as untimely amid a rise in religious violence, especially against Christians.[701][702][700] However, some prominent APC politicians stated their openness to a Muslim-Muslim ticket after Tinubu became party nominee, claiming that basing the vice presidential slot on religion was tantamount to discrimination in itself and that abandoning sentiment-based politics was vital for the progression of Nigerian democracy.[96][703] Despite intense opposition to a same religion ticket in June and July 2022 by civil/religious organizations and even within the APC, Tinubu picked Shettima—a fellow Muslim—anyway with an argument that qualifications should take precedence over religious affiliation.[700] The immediate backlash was strong as Anglican, Catholic, and Pentecostal leaders all condemned the same religion ticket while civil society groups like the Middle Belt Forum and some politicians also came out against the ticket.[704][705][706][100][707][708] Another mark against the same religion ticket was a leaked State Security Service memo that warned against same religion tickets using security grounds with the claim that such a ticket would "destabilise Nigeria and embolden attacks on Christian citizens" in addition to 'harbouring distrust by Christians against the presidency;' however, the Presidency denied the memo's veracity.[470][709] The appearance of people wearing liturgical garments of various Christian denominations at Shettima's nomination rally on 20 July led to further backlash as observers noted the group's lack of identification; the Christian Association of Nigeria publicly challenged the APC to name the supposed clergy, the Catholic Church said the vestment-donning "bishops" were fake, and activists derided the group as paid actors with the intent of faking Christian support for the APC ticket.[430][431][710][432] To compound the issues for Tinubu, prominent northern Christian APC politicians openly began to campaign against the ticket.[475] By later in 2022, an analyst would describe the Christian backlash to the same religion ticket and ensuing increased political activity as "arguably the most sustained spell of Christian religious mobilization" since the return of democracy in 1999.[711]

Another issue for candidates involving religion is centered on their reactions to and plans to combat religious violence. A few days before the major parties' primaries, a Christian university student named Deborah Samuel Yakubu was lynched by a mob in Sokoto after she was accused of blaspheming the Islamic prophet Muhammad. While Buhari, Osinbajo, civil society, and religious groups along with most serving national and state leaders publicly condemned the brutal murder, Tinubu remained silent and Obi did not release a statement but condemned the killing in an interview;[712][713][714][715][716] for Abubakar, he initially tweeted a condemnation before deleting the tweet and backtracking amid reports that he feared fundamentalist backlash.[717][718] These responses were derided as insensitive by critics and civil society groups as some Islamic groups justified the murder while others and more general sentiment called for punishment for the attackers.[719][720][721][722]

Social policy

The social position of women, people with disabilities, and other marginalized groups took a prominent position in policy debates before the election. A major point of contention in 2022 was the initial legislative rejection of constitutional amendments that mandating women seats in legislatures. While parliamentary leadership later partially rescinded the rejection, a wave of pro-equality protests swept the nation in March 2022 in a show of force from women's rights organizations.[723][724] In addition to the constitutional amendments, the National Assembly stalled a key gender equality bill for years despite nearly three-quarters of Nigerians promoting gender equality.[725][726] After the protests, groups have continued to push for legislation to combat inequality.[727] For the status of LGBT Nigerians, no major campaign has openly discussed the topic and seem to conform with current discriminatory laws.[728] People with disabilities also have pushed for fair participation in democratic processes amid discrimination with groups successfully getting wording in the new Electoral Act to guarantee accessibility during voting in line with INEC's goal of "the inclusion of PWDs in all aspects of the electoral process."[729]

In his manifesto, Obi promised to equitably distribute of appointments to "men, women, youths, and people living with disabilities" as part of his pledge to "leverage" national diversity and give overlooked groups "an unfettered voice in governance."[449] Similarly, Tinubu promised to back legislation mandating 35% participation for women in all governmental positions in his manifesto; however, a similar vow had been made by Buhari in his previous campaigns. The Tinubu campaign also stated that its proposed social welfare programs would "give priority access to persons with disabilities, women and young people."[605] Despite these promises, Abdullahi Aliyu Usman—the President of the Joint National Association of Persons with Disabilities—claimed electoral campaigns had continuously overlooked the group and avoided detailing specific policy aims to benefit people with disabilities in their manifestos.[730]

Projections

State or territory 2019 result 2023 result Africa Elects[ق]
24 Feb 2023[731] 		Dataphyte[ك]
11 Feb 2023[732] 		Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[ل]
17 Feb 2023[733] 		SBM Intelligence[م]
15 Dec 2022[734] 		ThisDay[ك]
27 Dec 2022[735] 		The Nation[ن]
12-19 Feb 2023[736][737]
  Tinubu Obi Abubakar Others Tinubu Obi Kwankwaso Abubakar Others/
Undecided
Abia Abubakar+41.65% TBD Safe Obi 14.38% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 62.79% 18.99% 3.84% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 10% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 60% – 15% 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi
Adamawa Abubakar+3.96% TBD Safe Abubakar 24.51% 20.60% 37.55% 17.34% Abubakar Abubakar 20% 10% 5% 60% 5% Abubakar
Akwa Ibom Abubakar+38.08% TBD Lean Obi 17.07% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 56.29% 22.75% 3.89% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi Abubakar 15% 30% – 40% 15% Abubakar
Anambra Abubakar+81.13% TBD Safe Obi 20.06% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 67.10% 6.53% 6.32% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 5% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 70% – 10% 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi
Bauchi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-57.52 | Buhari+57.52% TBD Likely Abubakar 19.80% 8.07% 65.12% 7.00% Abubakar Abubakar 20% 5% 15% 40% 20% Battleground
Bayelsa Abubakar+24.58% TBD Lean Obi 20.87% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 45.03% 28.05% 6.05% Abubakar Abubakar 20% 30% – 40% 10% Abubakar
Benue Abubakar+1.25% TBD Likely Obi 24.44% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 33.57% 24.44% 17.54% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 20% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 30% 10% 25% 15% Battleground
Borno قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-83.14 | Buhari+83.14% TBD Safe Tinubu 45.37% 4.95% 45.37% 4.32% Abubakar قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 40% – 20% 35% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Cross River Abubakar+42.30% TBD Likely Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 46.74% 38.97% 7.62% 6.68% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 25% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 35% – 20% 20% Battleground
Delta Abubakar+44.92% TBD Tossup 15.99% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 57.94% 20.84% 5.23% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi Abubakar 15% 35% – 40% 10% Abubakar
Ebonyi Abubakar+46.74% TBD Safe Obi 37.72% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 46.85% 8.24% 7.19% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 60% – 15% 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi
Edo Abubakar+1.40% TBD Likely Obi 25.14% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 31.46% 25.14% 18.25% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 15% 35% – 35% 15% Battleground
Ekiti قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-17.11 | Buhari+17.11% TBD Safe Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 38.33% 33.52% 15.47% 12.62% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 45% 15% – 20% 20% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Enugu Abubakar+71.52% TBD Safe Obi 16.42% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 56.65% 21.50% 5.43% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 10% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 60% – 15% 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi
FCT Abubakar+25.42% TBD Likely Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 33.01% 28.90% 20.68% 17.41% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi Abubakar N/A Battleground
Gombe قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-47.72 | Buhari+47.72% TBD Likely Abubakar 39.05% 11.95% 39.05% 9.95% Abubakar Abubakar 20% 15% 5% 40% 20% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Imo Abubakar+38.01% TBD Safe Obi 30.25% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 55.10% 8.23% 6.43% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 15% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 60% – 20% 5% Battleground
Jigawa قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-45.63 | Buhari+45.63% TBD Tossup 44.61% 6.10% 44.61% 4.69% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu 25% – 25% 35% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Kaduna قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-20.67 | Buhari+20.67% TBD Tossup 34.71% 16.56% 34.71% 14.02% Abubakar Abubakar قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | 30% 20% 20% 25% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Kano قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-56.74 | Buhari+56.74% TBD Lean Kwankwaso 45.57% 4.96% 45.57% 3.89% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu Too close to call 30% 5% قالب:Party shading/New Nigeria Peoples Party | 40% 20% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Katsina قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-59.41 | Buhari+59.41% TBD Lean Tinubu 46.27% 4.10% 46.27% 3.36% Abubakar قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu 30% – 30% 35% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Kebbi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-56.47 | Buhari+56.47% TBD Lean Abubakar 42.87% 7.91% 42.87% 6.36% Abubakar Too close to call 35% – 20% 35% 10% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Kogi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-12.99 | Buhari+12.99% TBD Tossup قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 37.73% 21.55% 22.54% 18.18% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu 35% 15% 5% 35% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Kwara قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-37.16 | Buhari+37.16% TBD Likely Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 42.54% 17.66% 25.21% 14.59% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu Too close to call 35% 10% 10% 40% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Lagos قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-12.19 | Buhari+12.19% TBD Tossup قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 44.61% 18.53% 21.21% 15.66% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 45% 25% 5% 20% 5% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Nasarawa قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-1.05 | Buhari+1.05% TBD Tossup قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 37.54% 21.11% 23.70% 17.65% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 30% 25% 10% 25% 10% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Niger قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-46.29 | Buhari+46.29% TBD Tossup قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 47.59% 16.94% 20.88% 14.58% Abubakar قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu 35% 10% 10% 35% 10% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Ogun قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-15.44 | Buhari+15.44% TBD Likely Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 44.95% 18.14% 21.63% 15.28% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 45% 5% 15% 20% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Ondo Abubakar+6.14% TBD Likely Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 37.86% 33.36% 15.85% 12.93% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 45% 10% 10% 20% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Osun قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-1.43 | Buhari+1.43% TBD Likely Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 38.27% 19.99% 25.18% 16.56% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu Abubakar 35% 5% 5% 35% 20% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Oyo Abubakar+0.17% TBD Lean Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 37.84% 19.95% 25.11% 17.10% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 40% 15% 10% 20% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Plateau Abubakar+7.74% TBD Lean Obi قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 33.02% 29.97% 20.12% 16.89% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi 20% 35% 5% 35% 5% Battleground
Rivers Abubakar+50.34% TBD Likely Obi 14.49% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 62.46% 19.27% 3.83% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi Abubakar 10% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| 35% – 15% 40% Battleground
Sokoto قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-14.77 | Buhari+14.77% TBD Likely Abubakar 28.49% 8.32% 56.89% 6.31% Abubakar Abubakar 35% – 15% 40% 10% Battleground
Taraba Abubakar+6.99% TBD Lean Abubakar 27.52% 27.37% 33.77% 16.35% قالب:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)| Obi Abubakar 10% 20% 20% 40% 10% Abubakar
Yobe قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-79.93 | Buhari+79.93% TBD Likely Tinubu 46.69% 3.62% 46.69% 3.00% Abubakar قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress| 40% – 15% 30% 15% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu
Zamfara قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress data-sort-value=-54.16 | Buhari+54.16% TBD Lean Tinubu 43.30% 7.51% 43.30% 5.69% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu 35% – 20% 35% 10% قالب:Party shading/All Progressives Congress | Tinubu

General election

Results

المرشحالشريكالحزبالأصوات%
Peter ObiYusuf Datti Baba-AhmedLP
Atiku AbubakarIfeanyi OkowaPDP
Bola TinubuKashim ShettimaAPC
Rabiu KwankwasoIsaac IdahosaNNPP
Christopher ImumolenBello Bala MaruA
Hamza al-MustaphaChukwuka JohnsonAA
Yabagi SaniUdo Okey-OkoroADP
Osita NnadiIsa HamisuAPP
Omoyele SoworeHaruna Garba MagashiAAC
Dumebi KachikwuAhmed BuhariADC
Peter UmeadiAbdullahi Muhammed KoliAPGA
Princess Chichi OjeiIbrahim MohammedAPM
Sunday AdenugaMustapha Usman TurakiBP
Felix Johnson OsakweYahaya Muhammad KyaboNRM
Kola AbiolaHaro Haruna ZegoPRP
Adewole AdebayoYusuf BuhariSDP
Malik Ado-IbrahimKasarachi EnyinnaYPP
Dan NwanyanwuRamalan AbubakarZLP
الإجمالي
الأصوات المسجلة/المشاركة93٬469٬008–

By geopolitical zone

Geopolitical zone Bola Tinubu
APC 		Peter Obi
LP 		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Others Total
Valid Votes 		Turnout
Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
North Central[هـ] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
North East[و] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
North West[ي] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South East[a] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South South[b] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South West[c] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

By state

State Bola Tinubu
APC 		Peter Obi
LP 		Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Others Total
Valid Votes 		Turnout
Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abia State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Adamawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Akwa Ibom State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Anambra State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bauchi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bayelsa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Benue State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Borno State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Cross River State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Delta State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ebonyi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Edo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ekiti State[738] 201,486 65.38% 11,397 3.70% 264 0.09% 89,554 29.06% 5,470 1.77% 308,171 31.84%
Enugu State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Federal
Capital Territory 		TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Gombe State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Imo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jigawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaduna State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kano State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Katsina State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kebbi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kogi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kwara State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Lagos State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Nasarawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Niger State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogun State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ondo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Osun State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oyo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Plateau State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Rivers State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Sokoto State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Taraba State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yobe State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Zamfara State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. ^ أ ب Due to disruptions—mainly violence or technical issues—on Election Day, INEC either postponed or extended voting to 26 February in certain affected areas.
  2. ^ On Election Day, Andy Uba and Emeka Okafor were officially listed as the APC gubernatorial and deputy gubernatorial nominees, respectively. However, in December 2021, a Federal High Court nullified the APC gubernatorial primary and declared Uba's nomination illegal, null, and void.
  3. ^ أ ب ت ث ج ح خ د ذ ر ز س ش This candidate was recommended by the party screening committee.[108]
  4. ^ أ ب ت ث ج This candidate was بتوصية من حكام مؤتمر جميع التقدميين ولجنة العمل الوطنية للحزب.[80]
  5. ^ أ ب ت ث ج ح خ د ذ ر لم توصي لجنة الفرز الحزبية بهذا المرشح.[108]
  6. ^ أ ب ت ث ج ح خ د ذ ر ز س ش ص ض ط This candidate was not recommended by APC governors and the party National Working Committee.[80]
  7. ^ أ ب Okowa is ethnically Ika, a group alternatively classified as either a distinct ethnic group or an Igbo subgroup; Okowa has steadfastly adhered to the latter interpretation, referring to himself as "Igbo." For his part, Wike is ethnically Ikwerre—another group classified as either a distinct ethnic group or an Igbo subgroup—however, Wike follows the former definition and has long denied being Igbo.[202]
  8. ^ أ ب ت The party was renamed the "Zenith Progressives Alliance" on 8 June 2022.[329]
  9. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[41]
  10. ^ أ ب Although there was not a comprehensive list of aggrieved PDP politicians that withdrew from the Abubakar campaign, reporters noted attendants of the meeting where withdrawal was decided upon, namely: Mohammed Bello Adoke, Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, Donald Duke, Ayo Fayose, Jerry Gana, Bode George, Jonah David Jang, Seyi Makinde, Olusegun Mimiko, Chibudom Nwuche, and Dan Orbih along with Wike himself.[435]
  11. ^ As he did not send a representative, Tinubu was replaced by Kola Abiola, the nominee of the People's Redemption Party.
  12. ^ Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, and Seyi Makinde of Oyo State
  13. ^ In the APC, renewed criticism over the same religion ticket along with internal disputes about the Tinubu campaign council composition dominated the time period while in the PDP, the ongoing Wike dispute continued along with a new intraparty financial scandal.[519][517]
  14. ^ Denotes a party presidential nominee attending the event.
  15. ^ Denotes a party presidential nominee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  16. ^ Denotes the attendance of a replacement invitee due to the non-attendance of an original invitee.
  17. ^ While originally based on a share of the revenue, bank documents revealed that the yearly commission was increased by ₦1.7 billion from 2019 to 2020 without an accompanying revenue increase; the pay rise was reportedly ordered by Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu—a longtime Tinubu ally—to fund Tinubu's presidential campaign.[598]
  18. ^ Hundreds of thousands of children in the Almajiranci system, mainly in the North, are counted as out-of-school children due to the often poor and/or limited form of education provided by the system.
  19. ^ Abubakar is ethnically Fulani, a distinct group to the larger Hausa people; however, for political purposes in Nigeria, the Hausa and Fulani are often grouped together under the term Hausa–Fulani.
  20. ^ Namely: the Abuja–Kaduna train attack which led to the killing and kidnapping of dozens of riders, the massacre of about 150 people in a series of bandit attacks in Plateau State, the ethnic-based and politically-motivated mass murder of over a dozen civilians by separatist militants in Anambra State, the fatal shooting of over 40 parishioners in Owo, and the ISWAP jailbreak of hundreds in the FCT signifying terrorist expansion into the North Central
  21. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  22. ^ أ ب Dataphyte and ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  23. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  24. ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  25. ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  26. ^ Comprising the states of Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Plateau in addition to the Federal Capital Territory.
  27. ^ Comprising the states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe.
  28. ^ Comprising the states of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara.
  29. ^ Comprising the states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo.
  30. ^ Comprising the states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers.
  31. ^ Comprising the states of Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo.

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قالب:2023 Nigeria elections

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