الأزمة المالية اليونانية 2010-2011
Early 2009 – Late 2018 (10 years)[1][2][3] | |
احصائيات | |
ن.م.إ | 200.29 billion (2017) |
ترتيب ن.م.إ | 51 (nominal per World Bank 2017) |
ن.م.إ للفرد | 23,027.41 (2017) |
الخارجي | |
إجمالي الديون الخارجية | $372 billion as of September 2019[4] |
كل القيم، ما لم يُذكر غير ذلك، هي بالدولار الأمريكي. |
أزمة الديون اليونانية |
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مقالات الانتخابات
مقالات أزمة الديون الحكومية اليونانية |
Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Widely known in the country as The Crisis (باليونانية: Η Κρίση), it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis.[5][6] In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country.[7]
The Greek crisis started in late 2009, triggered by the turmoil of the world-wide Great Recession, structural weaknesses in the Greek economy, and lack of monetary policy flexibility as a member of the Eurozone.[8][9] The crisis included revelations that previous data on government debt levels and deficits had been underreported by the Greek government:[10][11][12] the official forecast for the 2009 budget deficit was less than half the final value as calculated in 2010, while after revisions according to Eurostat methodology, the 2009 government debt was finally raised from $269.3bn to $299.7bn, i.e. about 11% higher than previously reported.[بحاجة لمصدر]
The crisis led to a loss of confidence in the Greek economy, indicated by a widening of bond yield spreads and rising cost of risk insurance on credit default swaps compared to the other Eurozone countries, particularly Germany.[13][14] The government enacted 12 rounds of tax increases, spending cuts, and reforms from 2010 to 2016, which at times triggered local riots and nationwide protests. Despite these efforts, the country required bailout loans in 2010, 2012, and 2015 from the International Monetary Fund, Eurogroup, and the European Central Bank, and negotiated a 50% "haircut" on debt owed to private banks in 2011, which amounted to a €100bn debt relief (a value effectively reduced due to bank recapitalisation and other resulting needs).
After a popular referendum which rejected further austerity measures required for the third bailout, and after closure of banks across the country (which lasted for several weeks), on 30 June 2015, Greece became the first developed country to fail to make an IMF loan repayment on time[15] (the payment was made with a 20-day delay).[16][17] At that time, debt levels stood at €323bn or some €30,000 per capita,[18] little changed since the beginning of the crisis and at a per capita value below the OECD average,[19] but high as a percentage of the respective GDP.
Between 2009 and 2017, the Greek government debt rose from €300bn to €318bn.[20][21] However, during the same period the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio rose up from 127% to 179%[20] due to the severe GDP drop during the handling of the crisis.[22][23]
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استعراض
دين تاريخي
Country | Average public debt-to-GDP (% of GDP) |
---|---|
United Kingdom | 104.7 |
Belgium | 86.0 |
Italy | 76.0 |
Canada | 71.0 |
France | 62.6 |
Greece | 60.2 |
United States | 47.1 |
Germany | 32.1 |
Greece, like other European nations, had faced debt crises in the 19th century, as well as a similar crisis in 1932 during the Great Depression. While economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff wrote that "from 1800 until well after World War II, Greece found itself virtually in continual default",[25] (referring to a period which included Greece's war of independence, two wars with the Ottoman Empire, two Balkan wars, two World Wars, and a Civil War) Greece recorded fewer cases of default than Spain or Portugal in the aforementioned period (in reality starting from 1830, as this was the year of Greece's independence).[22] Actually, during the 20th century, Greece enjoyed one of the highest GDP growth rates in the world[26] and average Greek government debt-to-GDP from 1909 to 2008 (a century until the eve of the debt crisis) was lower than that of the UK, Canada or France.[22][24] During the 30-year period immediately prior to its entrance into the European Economic Community in 1981,[27] the Greek government's debt-to-GDP ratio averaged only 19.8%.[24] Indeed, accession to the EEC (and later the European Union) was predicated on keeping the debt-to-GDP well below the 60% level, and certain members watched this figure closely.[28]
مقدمة
أزمة اليونان أم أزمة اليورو. لا فرق قد يختلف التوصيف لكن النتيجة واحدة لأنها تهدد ولا تزال تجربة فريدة كان من المؤمل أن تتوج نجاحاً تحقق على مدى عشرات السنين بدات بوحدة إقتصادية وتجارية ناجحة كان يجب أن تتوجها وحدة نقدية بوصف مماثل.
بدأ اليورو إصداره عام 1999 منافساً ضعيفاً للعملة الأقوى في العالم الدولار الأمركيك بسعر صرف بنحو 1.18 دولار ثم إنخفض إلى 82 سنتاً في أكتوبر/تشرين الأول 2000 وظل بعدها ضعيفاً لعامين آخرين. وبعدها إستجمع ثقة المستثمرين وإنطلق ليتخطى الدولار ويصل عام 2009 إلى نحو 1.60 دولار ويصبح العملة العالمية الثانية من حيث إحتياطيات العملات في العالم قبل أن يهبط إلى 1.22 دولار في أوج أزمة اليونان. لكن قوة اليورو غطت تفاوتاَ عميقاً بين لإقتصاديات الول الست عشرة التي تشكل منطقة اليورو وطالما حذر من نتائجها خبراء الإقتصاد ومنذ بدء الأزمة الأيرلندية وإنتهائا الأزمةاليونانية وما بينهما من ضعف شديد في إقتصادات أسبانيا وإيطاليا. وكلها لا تبشر بإحتمال ردم الفوارق الإقتصادية الكبيرة بين الدول الأعضاء في المنطقة من القاعدة إلى القمة التى تتربع عليها ألمانيا. قاطرة الإقتصاد الأوروبي. كمان أن أزمة اليونان وصفت علامات إستفهام كثيرة حول مستقبل الدول التى ستنضم لاحقاً إلى عضوية المنطقة بعد أن تكون قد إستكملت شروط العضوية. هذه الشروط التى أثبتت الأزمة أنها لا تكفي وحدها لضمان إستقرار الوحدة النقدية فقد تم التحايل على تلك الشروط بقرار سياسي ليصبح إنقاذ عصر قد يعلن إفلاسه مشروع رغم القواعد المالية وللحفاظ على وحدة نقدية قد تكون بلاشك باهظة التكلفة للإقتصاديات الكبرى في منطقة اليورو.
ولا أحد يدري أين ستتجه إقتصاديات الدول الأضعف في هذه المنطقة. فقد كسرت الأزمة المالية العالمية غطاء رقيقاً غطى الوحدة النقدية.
وتعهدت دول تثقلها عجوزات وديون بتقديم مساعدات تصل إلى نحو تريليون دولار للدول الضعيفة التي قد تواجه الإفلاس, أي أنها تعهدت بحل مشكلة الديون الإقتراضي ولايستطيع أحد أ، يتصور كيف يمكن لذلك أن يحدث دون أن نمو الإقتصاد الحقيق بحيث تستطيع منطقة اليورو ومثلما حدث لدول آسيا بعد الأزمة المالية في التسعينيات القرن الماضي أن تجعل من النمو علاجاً حقيقاً لمشكلة الديون بل وتحويل العجوزات إلى إحتياطيات من العملات الأجنبية.
أسباب الأزمة اليونانية
بدأت ترجيديا اليونان الحديثة قبل ظهورها الحالي إلى السطح بمدة طويلة إعتاد خلالها اليونانيون على العيش فوق طاقة مدخولاتهم.
وهذه الفترة تمد إلى ما قبل إنضمام اليونان إلى منطقة اليورو. فقد ةإعتادت اليونان على ا، يكون عجز الموازنة فيها أكثر من ضعف الحد المسموح به في منطقة اليورو لسنوات طويلة إتسمت بمشكلاتا إقتاصدية هيكلية.
فإقتصاد اليونان الصغير نسبياً بالمقاييس الأوروبية يعاني من تضخمن القطاع العام الذي يصل إلى 40% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي.
وفاقمت الأزمة المالية الأخيرة من مشكلات اليونان على الرعاية اجتماعية وعلى القطاع العام مازاد عجز الموازنة وإرتفعت البطالة لتصل إلى 21.1% في فبراير/ شباط 2010. ومع إستمرار ضعف الإقتصاد وزيادة الإنفاق إضطرت الحكومة إلى مضاعفة الإقتراض في السنوات السابقة للأأزمة المالية وخلالها في وقت إنخفضت فيه أسعار الفائدة؟ وترتبط أزمة اليونان برباط وثيق بالأزمة المالية العالمية حيث ضرب الركود الإقتصاد بعمق الإقتصاد اليوناني بسبب تأثر قطاع الخدمات بما فيه السياحة.
إحصائيات اقتصادية
Greek national account | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001a | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015b | 2016b | 2017c |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public revenued (% of GDP)[29] | N/A | N/A | 31.0d | 37.0d | 37.8d | 39.3d | 40.9d | 41.8d | 43.4d | 41.3d | 40.6d | 39.4d | 38.4d | 39.0d | 38.7 | 40.2 | 40.6 | 38.7 | 41.1 | 43.8 | 45.7 | 47.8 | 45.8 | 48.1 | 45.8 | TBA |
Public expenditured (% of GDP)[30] | N/A | N/A | 45.2d | 46.2d | 44.5d | 45.3d | 44.7d | 44.8d | 47.1d | 45.8d | 45.5d | 45.1d | 46.0d | 44.4d | 44.9 | 46.9 | 50.6 | 54.0 | 52.2 | 54.0 | 54.4 | 60.1 | 49.3 | 50.2 | 47.9 | TBA |
Budget balanced (% of GDP)[31][32] | N/A | N/A | -14.2d | -9.1d | -6.7d | -5.9d | -3.9d | -3.1d | -3.7d | -4.5d | -4.9d | -5.7d | -7.6d | -5.5d | -6.1 | -6.7 | -9.9 | -15.3 | -11.1 | -10.2 | -8.7 | -12.3 | -3.5 | -2.1 | -2.2 | TBA |
Structural balancee (% of GDP)[33] | N/A | N/A | −14.9f | −9.4g | −6.9g | −6.3g | −4.4g | −3.6g | −4.2g | −4.9g | −4.5g | −5.7h | −7.7h | −5.2h | −7.4h | −7.8h | −9.7h | −14.7h | −9.8 | −6.3 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -1.4 | -2.3 | TBA |
Nominal GDP growth (%)[34] | 13.1 | 20.1 | 20.7 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 4.0 | −1.9 | −4.7 | −8.2 | −6.5 | −6.1 | −1.8 | -0.7 | 3.6 | TBA |
GDP price deflatori (%)[35] | 3.8 | 19.3 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −2.3 | −2.6 | -1.2 | 0.7 | TBA |
Real GDP growthj (%)[36][37] | 8.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | −0.4 | −4.4 | −5.4 | −8.9 | −6.6 | −3.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.9 | TBA |
Public debtk (billion €)[38][39] | 0.2 | 1.5 | 31.2 | 87.0 | 98.0 | 105.4 | 112.1 | 118.8 | 141.2 | 152.1 | 159.5 | 168.3 | 183.5 | 212.8 | 225.3 | 240.0 | 264.6 | 301.0 | 330.3 | 356.0 | 304.7 | 319.2 | 317.1 | 320.4 | 319.6 | TBA |
Nominal GDPk (billion €)[34][40] | 1.2 | 7.1 | 45.7 | 93.4 | 103.5 | 114.8 | 125.7 | 134.2 | 141.7 | 152.0 | 162.3 | 178.6 | 193.0 | 199.2 | 217.8 | 232.8 | 242.1 | 237.4 | 226.2 | 207.8 | 194.2 | 182.4 | 179.1 | 177.8 | 184.3 | TBA |
Debt-to-GDP ratio (%)[41][42] | 17.2 | 21.0 | 68.3 | 93.1 | 94.7 | 91.8 | 89.2 | 88.5 | 99.6 | 100.1 | 98.3 | 94.2 | 95.1 | 106.9 | 103.4 | 103.1 | 109.3 | 126.8 | 146.0 | 171.4 | 156.9 | 175.0 | 177.1 | 180.2 | 173.4 | TBA |
- Impact of Nominal GDP growth (%)[43][44] | −2.3 | −3.7 | −10.6 | −10.0 | −9.1 | −9.3 | −7.9 | −5.7 | −4.7 | −6.7 | −6.3 | −9.0 | −7.1 | −2.9 | −9.2 | −6.7 | −3.9 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | −6.3 | TBA |
- Stock-flow adjustment (%)[34][43][45] | N/A | N/A | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 12.1 | 2.7 | −0.3 | −0.8 | 0.3 | 9.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | −35.1 | −4.4 | −4.7 | −0.2 | −2.6 | TBA |
- Impact of budget balance (%)[31][32] | N/A | N/A | 14.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | TBA |
- Overall yearly ratio change (%) | −2.3 | −0.9 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −2.6 | −0.7 | 11.1 | 0.4 | −1.8 | −4.0 | 0.8 | 11.8 | −3.4 | −0.4 | 6.2 | 17.5 | 19.2 | 25.3 | −14.5 | 18.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 | −6.8 | TBA |
Notes: a Year of entry into the Eurozone. b Forecasts by European Commission pr 5 May 2015.[46] c Forecasts by the bailout plan in April 2014.[47] d Calculated by ESA-2010 EDP method, except data for 1990–2005 only being calculated by the old ESA-1995 EDP method. e Structural balance = "Cyclically-adjusted balance" minus impact from "one-off and temporary measures" (according to ESA-2010). f Data for 1990 is not the "structural balance", but only the "Cyclically-adjusted balance" (according to ESA-1979).[48][49] g Data for 1995–2002 is not the "structural balance", but only the "Cyclically-adjusted balance" (according to ESA-1995).[48][49] h Data for 2003–2009 represents the "structural balance", but are so far only calculated by the old ESA-1995 method. i Calculated as yoy %-change of the GDP deflator index in National Currency (weighted to match the GDP composition of 2005). j Calculated as yoy %-change of 2010 constant GDP in National Currency. k Figures prior of 2001 were all converted retrospectively from drachma to euro by the fixed euro exchange rate in 2000. |
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انظر أيضاً
- 1999 Greek stock market crash
- Currency crisis
- European debt crisis
- The role of the Institute of International Finance in the Greek debt crisis
- Japonica Partner's Greek bond trade
- List of acronyms: European sovereign-debt crisis
- List of countries by external debt
- List of countries by net international investment position per capita
- Puerto Rican government-debt crisis
- Vulture fund
أحداث مماثلة
- 1997 Asian financial crisis
- 1998 Russian financial crisis
- 1998–2002 Argentine great depression
- Latin American debt crisis
- South American economic crisis of 2002
فيلم عن الدين اليوناني
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ببليوجرافيا
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- Albanese Ginammi Alessandro, Conte Giampaolo, Greek Bailouts in Historical Perspective: Comparative Case Studies, 1893 and 2010|The Journal of European Economic History, 2 2016
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