الأزمة الإقتصادية 2008-2009

هذا المقال هو عن القضايا الاقتصادية التي تتعدى السوق المالية. للقراءة في سلسلة أحداث السوق المالية، بدءاً من يوليو 2007، التي أنذرت بوجود ضعف في الاقتصادات العالمية، طالع الأزمة المالية 2007-2008. وللتفاصيل عن انهيار أسواق الأوراق المالية وإنقاذ البنوك في أواخر 2008، طالع الأزمة المالية العالمية 2008.

في عام 2008, كثرت التوقعات بشأن حدوث أزمات مالية عن طريق العديد من المؤشرات الهامة نحو الإنكماش الإقتصادي في جميع أنحاء العالم. تضمنت تلك التوقعات إرتفاع أسعار البترول, والذي قاد بدوره إلى إرتفاع أسعار الغذاء (نتيجة لإعتماد إنتاج الغذاء على إنتاج الوقود) و التضخم العالمي ، وأدت تلك الأزمة الضخمة بدورها إلى الذهاب بالعديد من بنوك الإستثمار الراسخة إلى الإفلاس ، وإزدادت البطالة ، وإمكانية تنامي معدلات الكساد العالمي.

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إرتفاع أسعار السلع الأساسية

للمزيد من المعلومات: [[:إرتفاع أسعار البترول منذ 2003 والأزمة العالمية لأسعار الغذاء 2007-2008]]
Medium term crude oil prices, (not adjusted for inflation)

The decade of the 2000s saw a commodities boom, in which the prices of primary commodities rose again after the Great Commodities Depression of 1980-2000. But in 2008, the prices of many commodities, notably oil and food, rose so high as to cause genuine economic damage, threatening stagflation and a reversal of globalisation.[1]

In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year.[2] By July the price of oil reached as high as $147 a barrel although prices fell soon after.

The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the 34th G8 summit in July.[3]

Sulfuric acid (an important chemical commodity used in processes such as steel processing, copper production and bioethanol production) increased in price 6-fold in less than 1 year whilst producers of sodium hydroxide have declared force majeur due to flooding, precipitating similarly steep price increases.[بحاجة لمصدر]


الأزمة في الولايات المتحدة

{{seealso|أزمة الرهن العقاري[Image:Foreclosure Trend - 2007.png|thumb|Number of U.S. Household Properties Subject to Foreclosure Actions by Quarter]] دخلت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية عام 2008 من خلال إنقاذ سوق الرهن العقاري, أزمة الرهن العقاري وإنخفاض قيمة الدولار.[4] في فبراير، 63,000 وظيفة فـُقـِدت وكان هذا رقماً قياسياً في الخمس سنوات الماضية.[5] في سبتمبر, 159.000 وظيفة فـُقـِدت, لتوصل المتوسط الشهري إلى 84.000 في الشهر من يناير إلى سبتمبر 2008.[6]

معدلات تغير نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي (آخر سنة فقط)
التاريخ سعر الخصم سعر الخصم سعر الخصم Fed funds Fed funds rate
أولي ثانوي
معدل التغيير سعر الفائدة الجديد سعر الفائدة الجديد معدل التغيير سعر الفائدة الجديد
30 أبريل ,2008 -.25% 2.25% 2.75% -.25% 2.00%
18 مارس, 2008 -.75% 2.50% 3.00% -.75% 2.25%
16 مارس, 2008 -.25% 3.25% 3.75%
30 يناير, 2008 -.50% 3.50% 4.00% -.50% 3.00%
22 يناير, 2008 -.75% 4.00% 4.50% -.75% 3.50%

لمزيد من التفاصيل انظر رسم بياني لمعدل التخفيض للحكومة الفيدرالية الأمريكية: [2]

إمكانية الركود

أسعار الفائدة الأساسية في الدول المختارة

في أوائل عام 2008, In the early months of 2008, many observers believed that a U.S. recession had begun.[7][8][9] As a direct result of the collapse of Bear Stearns, Global Insight increased the probability of a worse-than-expected recession to 40% (from 25% before the collapse). In addition, financial market turbulence signaled that the crisis will not be mild and brief.

Alan Greenspan, ex-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated in March 2008 that the 2008 financial crisis in the United States is likely to be judged as the harshest since the end of الحرب العالمية الثانية.[10] A chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said in March 2008 he has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover in the summer 2008.[بحاجة لمصدر] Under this scenario, the economy's total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.

The former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research said in March 2008 he believes the country is now in a recession, and it could be a severe one.[بحاجة لمصدر] A number of private economists generally predicted a mild recession that will end in the summer of 2008 when the economic stimulus checks going to 130 million households start being spent. A chief economist at Moody's predicted in March 2008 that policymakers would act in a concerted and aggressive way to stabilize the financial markets, and that then the economy would suffer but not enter a prolonged and severe recession.[بحاجة لمصدر] It takes many months before the National Bureau of Economic Research-committee, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end, makes its own ruling.[11]

According to numbers published by Bureau of Economic Analysis in May 2008, the GDP growth of the previous two quarters was positive. As one common definition of a recession is negative economic growth for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters, some analysts suggest this indicates that the U.S. economy was not in a recession at the time.[12] However this estimate has been disputed by some analysts who argue that if inflation is taken into account, the GDP growth was negative for the past two quarters, making it a technical recession.[13] In a May 9, 2008, report, the chief North American economist for investment bank Merrill Lynch wrote that despite the GDP growth reported for the first quarter of 2008, "it is still reasonable to believe that the recession started some time between September and January", on the grounds that the National Bureau of Economic Research's four recession indicators all peaked during that period.[14]

New York's budget director concluded the state of New York was officially in a recession. Governor David Paterson called an emergency economic session of the state legislature for August 19 to push a budget cut of $600 million on top of a hiring freeze and a 7 percent reduction in spending at state agencies already implemented by the Governor.[15] An August 1 report, issued by economists with Wachovia, said Florida was officially in a recession.[16]

White House budget director Jim Nussle said the U.S. avoided a recession following revised GDP numbers from the Commerce Department showing a 0.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2007 down from a 0.6 percent increase and a downward revision to 0.9 percent from 1 percent in the first quarter of 2008. The GDP for the second quarter was placed at 1.9 percent below an expected 2 percent.[17] Martin Feldstein, who headed the National Bureau of Economic Research until June and serves on the group's recession-dating panel, said he believed the U.S. was in a very long recession and that there was nothing the Federal Reserve could do to change it.[18]

In a CNBC interview at the end of July 2008 Alan Greenspan said he believed the U.S. was not yet in a recession, but that it could enter one due to a global economic slowdown.[19]

إرتفاع معدل البطالة

في 5 سبتمبر 2008, أصدرت وزارة العمل الأمريكية تقريرا يوضح أن معدلات البطالة داخل الولايات المتحدة قد زاد إلى 6.1%, ليكون هو الأكبر في الخمس سنوات الأخيرة.[20][21] The news report cited the Department of Labor reports and interviewed Jared Bernstein, an economist:

The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1 percent in August, its highest level in five years, as the erosion of the job market accelerated over the summer. Employers cut 84,000 jobs last month, more than economists had expected, and the Labor Department said that more jobs were lost in June and July than previously thought. So far, 605,000 jobs have disappeared since January. The unemployment rate, which rose from 5.7 percent in July, is now at its highest level since September 2003. Jared Bernstein, economist at the Economics Policy Institute in Washington, said eight months of consecutive job losses had historically signaled that the economy was in a recession. "If anyone is still scratching their head over that one, they can stop," Mr. Bernstein said. Stocks fell after the release of the report, with the Dow Jones industrials down about 100 points after about 40 minutes of trading.

— New York Times[21]

CNN also reported the news,[22] quoted another economist, and placed the news in context:

"Job losses are still mild by recession standards, but the losses are relentless and they are accumulating," said Bob Brusca of FAO Economics. "If job growth had paced with population growth during this year, it would have meant 1.3 million new jobs would have been created. Instead 605,000 were lost. That means about 2 million fewer people are working than if the economy were on a steady path. And that's a big number." But while economists generally study the payroll numbers most closely, it's the unemployment rate that registers with most Americans when they think about the labor market.[22]

أزمة السيولة

المقالة الرئيسية: أزمة السيولة سبتمبر 2008

On July 11, the largest mortgage lender in the US collapsed. IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures. That day the financial markets plunged as investors tried to gauge whether the government would attempt to save mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two were placed into conservatorship on September 7, 2008.

During the weekend of September 13–14, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy after failing to find a buyer, Bank of America agreed to purchase Merrill Lynch, the insurance company AIG sought a bridge loan from the Federal Reserve, and a consortium of 10 banks created an emergency fund of at least $70 billion to deal with the effects of Lehman's closure,[23] similar to the consortium put forth by J.P. Morgan during the stock market panic of 1907 and the crash of 1929.[بحاجة لمصدر] Stocks on "Wall Street" tumbled on September 15.[24]

On September 16, news emerged that the Federal Reserve may give AIG an $85 billion (£48 billion) rescue package, on September 17, 2008, this was confirmed. The terms of the rescue package were that the Federal Reserve would receive an 80% public stake in the firm. The biggest bank failure in history occurred on September 25 when JP Morgan Chase agreed to purchase the banking assets of Washington Mutual.[25]

The year 2008 as of September 17 has seen 81 public corporations file for bankruptcy in the United States, already higher than the 78 in 2007. Lehman Brothers being the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history also makes 2008 a record year in terms of assets with Lehman's $691 billion in assets all past annual totals.[26] The year also saw the ninth biggest bankruptcy with the failure of IndyMac Bank.[27]

On September 29, Citigroup beat out Wells Fargo to acquire the ailing Wachovia's assets will pay $1 a share, or about $2.2 billion. In addition, the FDIC said that the agency would absorb the company's losses above $42 billion; in exchange they would receive $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants from Citigroup in return for assuming that risk.[28][29]

إقتراح إنقاذ النظام المالي في الولايات المتحدة

المقالة الرئيسية: إقتراح إنقاذ النظام المالي في الولايات المتحدة(2008)

On September 19, short selling on 799 financial stocks was banned. Companies were also forced to disclose large short positions.[30] Paulson also indicated that money market funds will create an insurance pool to cover themselves against losses and that the government will buy mortgage-backed securities from banks and investment houses.[30] Initial estimates of the cost of the Treasury bailout proposed by the Bush Administration's draft legislation (as of September 19, 2008) were in the range of $700 billion[31] to $1 trillion U.S. dollars.[32] President George W. Bush asked Congress on September 20 2008 for the authority to spend as much as $700 billion to purchase troubled mortgage assets and contain the financial crisis.[33][34]


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الأزمة في اوروبا

Denmark was confirmed to be in a recession after quarterly results for 2008 showed a contraction of 0.6 percent in the first quarter following a contraction of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.[35] Estonia similarly saw an economic contraction of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, following a 0.5 percent contraction in the first quarter, putting it in a recession.[36] Latvia officially entered a recession after gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter following a fall of 0.3 percent in first quarter GDP.[37] Sweden's economy showed zero growth in the second quarter of 2008.[38] The entire economy of the European Union declined by 0.1 percent in the second quarter.[39] A European Commission forecast predicted Germany, Spain and the UK would all enter a recession by the end of the year while France and Italy would have flat growth in the third quarter following second quarter contractions.[40]

Chairwoman of the Association of Estonian Food Industry, Sirje Potisepp, warned the Estonian food industry would probably face bankruptcies citing two major beverage companies in Estonia filing for bankruptcy.[41] Ratings agency Fitch warned Ukraine could be headed for a currency crisis as economic fundamentals deteriorate and the country enters another period of political uncertainty. Fitch said the current account deficit was likely to widen further as prices of gas imports rise and prices of its steel exports fall and said Ukraine was likely to need to borrow more at a time when global debt markets have ground to a virtual standstill. Ukraine's central bank chief, Petro Poroshenko, said he saw no need to intervene to protect the currency.[42]

الأزمة في المملكة المتحدة

People queuing on September 15, 2007 outside a Northern Rock bank branch in the المملكة المتحدة, to withdraw money from their accounts.

The economy of the United Kingdom has also been hit by rising oil prices and the credit crisis. Sir Win Bischoff, chairman of Citigroup, said he believes that house prices in Britain will keep falling for another two years. The Ernst & Young Item club predicted growth of only 1.5 percent in 2008, slowing to 1 percent in 2009. They also predicted consumer spending would slow to only 0.2 percent, and forecast a two-year drop in investment. The Institute of Directors’ quarterly business opinion survey showed business optimism at its lowest level since the survey began in 1996.[43] Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, John Gieve said inflation would accelerate "well over" 4 percent while economic growth is "slowing fast." Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said there may be "an odd quarter or two of negative growth," following the first quarter of 2009. Gieve said he couldn't rule out the U.K. economy heading into a recession, adding the economy was "quite a long way" from the end of the slowdown.[44]

Nationwide, the UK's biggest building society, warned the UK could head into a recession after house prices in July fell 8.1 percent from the previous year. Housing prices declined by 1.7 percent in July, double the decline recorded in June. Standard & Poor's said on July 30, 2008 that 70,000 homeowners were in negative equity and it could rise to 1.7 million or about one in six homeowners in the UK based on an expected 17 percent decline into 2009. The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals fell by a record of nearly 70 percent.[45] In Northern Ireland, house sales saw a fall of some 50 per cent according to a survey by the University of Ulster/Bank of Ireland and housing prices fell on average by 4 percent.[46] British manufacturing activity declined by the most in almost a decade in July, the third consecutive month of declines. The number of companies that went into administration in May–July was 938, an increase of 60 percent compared with the same period in 2007. The number of company liquidations in the second quarter rose to 3,689, a 16 percent increase and the highest quarterly figure in five years. House builders expect the number of houses built in 2008 in England and Wales to be the lowest since 1924. The declines are seen as an indication the United Kingdom has high chance of entering a recession.[47] Factory production in the UK dropped 0.5 percent in June when twelve out of 13 categories of factory production fell. The economic output of the UK was reported to have increased by just 0.2 percent in the second quarter, the joint-slowest pace since 2001.[48] The Office for National Statistics later gave a revised number saying growth in the British economy was at zero, the worst since the second quarter of 1992. The current slowdown has ended 16 years of continuous economic growth, the longest period of economic expansion in Britain since the 19th century.[49] A report from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said the economy contracted by 0.1 percent in the period from May to July and 0.2 percent from June to August.[50]

A voter backlash due to the personal financial effects of the global credit crunch was widely attributed by politicians of the United Kingdom Labour Party, which had been in power since 1997, as the reason their political fortunes took a dramatic downturn through May 2008, with a succession of defeats in by-elections and the London Mayoral election, and the worst opinion poll result in their history. Political opponents countered this apparent excuse by pointing to the fact that the incumbent Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who had taken office in June 2007 just before the crisis broke, had been the country's 'Iron Chancellor', and had allegedly not ensured the country had sufficient monetary reserves to be able to lower taxes and ease the burden on voters, despite overseeing one of the longest sustained periods of economic growth in the country's history. In August 2008 the party also faced calls to impose a windfall tax on the utility companies, who were reaping record profits due to the fuel crisis, perceived as in bad taste given rising food and fuel prices.

On 17 September 2008, news emerged that the banking and insurance group HBOS (Halifax Bank of Scotland) was in merger talks with Lloyds TSB about creating a UK retail banking giant worth £30bn. The move received the backing of the British government which stated that it will over-rule any claims from the competition authorities.

According to the Office for National Statistics unemployment claims in August of 2008 increased by 32,500 to reach 904,900. The wider Labour Force Survey measure found joblessness rose by 81,000 to 1.72 million between May and July, the largest increase since 1999.[51]

In September, British bank Bradford & Bingley's £20billion savings business was acquired by Spanish bank Grupo Santander. While its retail deposit business along with its branch network will be sold to Santander. The mortgage book, personal loan book, headquarters, treasury assets and its wholesale liabilities will be taken into public ownership.

الأزمة في منطقة اليورو

In the eurozone as a whole industrial production fell 1.9 percent in May the sharpest one-month decline for the region since the exchange rate crisis in 1992. European car sales fell 7.8 percent in May compared with a year earlier.[52] Retail sales fell by 0.6 percent in June from the May level and by 3.1 percent from June in the previous year. Germany was the only country out of the four biggest economies in the eurozone to register an increase of activity in July though the increase was sharply down. Economic analysts from RBS and capital Economics say the decline raises the risk of the eurozone entering a recession in 2008.[53] In the second quarter, the eurozone's economy was reported to have declined by 0.2 percent.[54]

Ireland in the first quarter of 2008 reported a contraction in GDP of 1.5 percent, it's first economic contraction since it began reporting by quarter and first recorded contraction since 1983.[55] However Ireland's Central Statistics Office reported growth in GNP of about 0.8 percent, Ireland's government considers GNP a better measure of the economy. Analysts have predicted Ireland's economy will contract further in the rest of the year.[56] A report from NCB Stockbrokers predicts gross national product will fall by 1 percent in 2008 and by 0.4 percent in 2009 due to a decline in multinationals hit by the global economic slowdown. An economist from NCB said non-residential investment would fall by 5 percent in 2008 and by 12 percent in 2009.[57] Ireland's GDP saw a contraction in the second quarter by 0.5 percent making Ireland the first member of the eurozone to enter a recession.[58]

Spain's Martinsa-Fadesa, a construction company, has declared bankruptcy as it failed to refinance a debt of 5.1 billion euros. The two banks with most exposure to Martinsa-Fadesa are reportedly Caja Madrid, at €900m, and Banco Popular, at €400m. Spain's finance minister Pedro Solbes has said it would not bail out the company. In the second quarter in Spain house prices reportedly fell 20 percent.[59] In Castilla-La Mancha some 69 percent of all houses built over the past three years are still unsold. Deutsche Bank said it expects a 35 percent fall in real house prices by 2011. Spain's premier, Jose Luis Zapatero, blamed the European Central Bank for making matters worse by raising interest rates. More than 98 percent of home loans in Spain are priced off floating rates linked to Euribor, which has risen 145 basis points since August. Housing accounts for over 10 percent of Spain's economy. The Bank of Spain is concerned about the health of smaller regional lenders with heavy exposure to the mortgage market.

Although Spain has avoided recession in the first half of 2008, unemployment in the country has risen by 425,000 over the past year, reaching 9.9 percent. Car sales in Spain fell 31 percent in May.[52] Spain's factory output slumped 5.5 percent in May. The country's business lobby Circulo de Empresarios warned of a "high probability" that Spain's economy would fall into recession in the second half of 2008 due to the housing collapse.[60] Spain had a 7.9 percent decline in retail sales in June compared to the previous year, the largest drop since Spain began registering the results and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This included a 17.9 percent drop in retail sales of household goods. June food sales in Spain fell by 6.8 percent.[61] Morgan Stanleyissued a major alert on the health of Spanish banks and the Spanish economy in a report, saying, "A momentous economic slowdown is now under way. We believe the deterioration in Spain is just in the beginning stages. The bulk of the pain will be suffered in 2009." Morgan Stanley also warned there was 40 percent chance of a 0.5 percent contraction of the Spanish economy in 2009, with a risk of an even more extreme 1.4 percent contraction in 2009.[62] According to Spanish automobile manufacturers' association ANFAC new car sales fell 27.5 percent in July from the same time in 2007, the third consecutive monthly drop of over 20 percent. Spain's government forecast the unemployment rate would rise to 10.4 percent in 2008 and to 12.5 percent in 2009. Spain's second largest bank predicted the unemployment rate could reach 14 percent in 2009.[63] Spain's Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in July fell to a new low suggesting a deep recession.[64] In the second quarter Spain's economy grew by 0.1 percent, the lowest gain in 15 years.[54]

In Germany officials are warning the economy could contract by as much as 1.5 percent in the second quarter because of declining export orders. Industrial output in both Italy and Greece has slumped 6.6 percent over the past year. Portugal is off 6.2 percent.[52] Germany's industrial output was down 2.4 percent in May, the fastest rate for a decade. Orders have now fallen for six months in a row, the worst run since the early 1990s. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce warned of up to 200,000 job losses in coming months.[60] German retails sales fell 1.4 percent in June more than any expectations.[65] The German economy declined by 0.5 percent in the second quarter.[54] In Italy, Fiat announced plant closures and temporary layoffs at factories in Turin, Melfi, Imola and Sicily. Car sales in Italy have fallen by almost 20 percent over each of the past two months. Metalmeccanici, Italy's car workers' union said, "The situation is evidently more serious than had been understood."[60] On July 10, 2008 economic think tank ISAE lowered its growth forecast for Italy to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent and cut the 2009 outlook to 0.7 percent from 1.2 percent.[66] Analysts have predicted Italy had entered a recession in the second quarter or would enter one by the end of the year with business confidence at its lowest levels since the 9-11 terrorist attacks.[67] Italy's economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.[68] In May industrial output fell in the Netherlands by 6 percent.[69]

Other eurozone members saw a decline in their economy in the second quarter. The French economy declined by 0.3 percent, Finland's economy declined by 0.2%, and the Netherlands showed zero growth in the second quarter.[54]

On September 28, Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis was partially nationalized with a cash infusion from the Benelux countries amounting to €11.2 billion. Fortis' troubles started in the beginning of the year with an announcement that it faced around $1.5 bn of losses in the American sub-prime catastrophe. In June, the company announced a selloff of assets to raise €5 bn to improve the liquidity of the organisation. This, however, prove insufficient. [70]

الأزمات في مناطق أخرى من العالم

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey showing New Zealand's economy contracted 0.3 percent in the first quarter and Treasury figures suggested the economy also contracted in the June quarter putting New Zealand in a technical recession.[71] The Treasury says the economy could recover in the second half of the year under the impact of high dairy prices boosting farmer incomes and cuts to personal tax rates, which come into effect on Oct. 1.[72] About 23 financial companies in New Zealand have filed for bankruptcy in a year. Housing starts in New Zealand fell 20 percent in June, the lowest levels since 1986.[73] Excluding apartments, approvals dropped 13 percent from May. Approvals in the year ended June fell 12 percent from a year earlier. Second-quarter approvals dropped 19 percent. The figures suggest a decrease in construction and economic growth. House sales fell 42 percent in June from a year earlier.[74] The Treasury of New Zealand concluded the country's economy had contracted for a second quarter based on economic indicators, putting New Zealand in a recession.[75] New Zealand's central bank cut rates by half a percent arguing the economy was in recession.[76] New Zealand's GDP declined by 0.2 percent in the second quarter putting the country in its first recession in a decade.[77]

In Australia, Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas has said Australia would have to generate 4 percent of its GDP to meet payments to foreign holders of its assets. National Australia Bank on July 29, 2008 cut a £400 million bond sale by two thirds following investor flight and opted for a 100 percent write-off on a clutch of "senior strips" of AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations (CDO) worth £450 million.[73] Approvals for loans to build or buy homes and apartments decreased 3.7 percent in June of 2008. Housing prices in Australia fell in the second quarter of 2008 for the first time in about three years. Consumer confidence in Australia fell to a 16-year low in July and retail sales fell 1 percent in June.[78] High profile casualties of the credit crunch include Allco Finance, MFS, ABC Learning, Babcock & Brown and Centro while numerous other institutions have lost a significant part of their value.[79]

Moody's Investors Service warned on July 7, 2008 that South Africa could slip into a recession by the turn of the year. Moody's cited electricity shortages, high interest rates, soaring inflation, a slumping housing and vehicle market and lower business and consumer confidence indicators. Growth in South Africa's gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2008 slowed to 2.1%. CPIX inflation, the monetary-policy inflation target measure, rose 10.9% on a year-on-year basis in May, its highest level since November 2002.[80] South Africa's National Treasury criticized the statement by Moody's saying, "It's not possible that we'll end up in recession." He added that the government may revise lower its 4 percent growth forecast for the year following growth of 5.1% in 2007. Car sales in South Africa dropped an annual 22 percent in June due to higher interest rates.[81]

In Japan exports in June declined for the first time in about five years falling by 1.7 percent. Exports to the United States and European Union fell 15.4 percent and 11.2 percent respectively. The decline in exports and increase in imports cut Japan's trade surplus $1.28 billion a decline of 90 percent from the previous year. An economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland said the decline means the Japanese economy most likely declined in the second quarter.[82] Taro Aso, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said he believes Japan had entered a recession.[83] Japan's economy declined by 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2008.[84] This was later revised to a decline of 0.7 percent.[85] Japanese exports grew 0.3 percent in August of 2008 compared to a year before down from 8 percent the previous month. Exports to the U.S. fell 21.8 percent, the biggest decline on record, and exports to Europe fell 3.5 percent.[86] In South Korea Samsung Electronics has been reported to be posting a decrease in sales for the first time since the Asian financial crisis since home appliances saw a decrease in the domestic market of up to 20 percent since mid-June compared to the previous year. Domestic auto sales also saw a decrease in the second quarter. Auto exports also posted a loss and exports of home appliances were also reported to be in decline.[87] Singapore's economy saw it's biggest drop in five years in the second quarter, falling by 6.6 percent however the Managing Director of Singapore's central bank said a technical recession was not likely.[88] Singapore cut its 2008 GDP forecast to between 4 and 5 from 4 to 6 percent before.[89] Taiwan announced billions of dollars in spending and tax cuts due to declining growth and a 26 percent slump in the stock market in 2008.[76] Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said he could not rule out Singapore entering a recession.[90]

In May 2008 Canada's GDP was reported to have decreased 0.1 percent due to decline in mining, oil and gas industry by 1.2 percent and fall in Automobile production by 3.6 percent. Construction output in Canada declined 0.4 percent, utilities 1.3 percent, and farms produce 0.9 percent less.[91] In the first quarter of 2008 Canada's economy shrank by 0.3 percent and the Bank of Canada said second quarter growth would likely be less than 0.8 percent projected.[92] Canada later revised its first quarter GDP showing a contraction of 0.8% and gave second quarter GDP showing an increase of only 0.3%.[93]

By September 2008, the crisis threatening the GSEs (US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) began to have consequences in Asia. The foreign exchange reserves of South Korea's central bank contained many depreciating "Agency bonds" from the GSEs, threatening a currency crisis,[94] while in China, a struggle was underway to see who would swallow the losses on US Agencies and Treasuries.[95] The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers raised concerns about global exposure to the assets and stock of Lehman Brothers and the potential for the bankruptcy to cause further tightening of credit. Taiwan, despite reporting few losses from the subprime mortgage crisis, was said to have Lehman-related exposure for its companies and retail investors totaling $2.5 billion. Two Japanese banks appeared on the list of major Lehman creditors.[96]


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

التضخم العالمي

In February 2008, Reuters reported that global inflation was at historic levels, and that domestic inflation was at 10-20 year highs for many nations.[97] "Excess money supply around the globe, monetary easing by the Fed to tame financial crisis, growth surge supported by easy monetary policy in Asia, speculation in commodities, agricultural failure, rising cost of imports from China and rising demand of food and commodities in the fast growing emerging markets," have been named as possible reasons for the inflation.[98]

In mid-2008, IMF data indicated that inflation was highest in the oil-exporting countries, largely due to the unsterilized growth of foreign exchange reserves. However, inflation was also growing in countries classified by the IMF as "non-oil-exporting LDCs" and "Developing Asia", on account of the rise in oil and food prices.[99]

Inflation was also increasing in the developed countries,[100][101] but remained low compared to the developing world.

أسواق الأوراق المالية

As of October 2008, stocks in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region had all fallen by about 30% since the beginning of the year.[102]

There were several large Monday declines in stock markets world wide during 2008, including one in January, another in August, and another in September.

إنهيار سوق سبتمبر 2008

The simultaneous multiple crises affecting the US financial system in mid-September 2008 caused large falls in markets both in the US and elsewhere. Numerous indicators of risk and of investor fear (the TED spread, Treasury yields, the dollar value of gold) set records.[103]

Russian markets, already falling due to declining oil prices and political tensions with the West, fell over 10% in one day, leading to a suspension of trading,[104] while other emerging markets also exhibited losses.[105]

On September 18, UK regulators announced a temporary ban on short-selling of financial stocks.[106] On September 19 the United States' SEC followed by placing a temporary ban of short-selling stocks of 799 specific financial institutions. In addition, the SEC made it easier for institutions to buy back shares of their institutions. The action is based on the the view that short selling in a crisis market undermines confidence in financial institutions and erodes their stability.[107]

On September 22, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) delayed opening by an hour [108] after a decision was made by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) to ban all short selling on the ASX.[109] This was revised slightly a few days later.[110]

جدول زمني للبلدان التي في حالة ركود

Color scheme:
  الدول في حالة الركود سبتمبر 2008
  Severely affected countries
  • 1 يوليو, 2008: الدنمارك الدنمارك

الدنمارك من أول الإقتصاديات الاوربية التي أكدت أنها في حالة ركود منذ بداية أزمة الإئتمان العالمية. وقد إنخفض الناتج المحلي في الدنمارك بنسبة 0.6% في الربع الأول من 2008 بعد أن كان نسبة الإنخفاض 0.2% في الربع الرابع من 2007.

في الربع الثالث, عاد الإقتصاد الاقتصاد مرة ثانية إلى الأنخفاض ولكن هذه المرة بنسبة 0.5%.


  • 13 اغسطس, 2008: إستونيا استونيا

مرت دولة البلطيق بحالة الركود على قطاعات مختلفة من العام حيث إنخفض إجمالي الناتج المحلي لها في الربع الثاني بنسبة 0.9% ، وفي الربع الأول بنسبة 0.5&. ودخل في حالة أعمق من الركود في الربع الثالث من السنة حيث تأثير الاقتصاد بنسبة 3.3%.


  • September 8, 2008: لاتڤيا لاتڤيا

لاتڤيا إنضمت لجارتها في الشمال استونيا في حالة الركود بنسبة إنخفاض بلغت 0.2% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي في الربع الثاني عن الربع الأول من السنة, حيث بلغت نسبة 0.3%. وقد أثرت حالة الركوك على كل من الأسواق والعقارات.

  • 25 سبتمبر, 2008: جمهورية أيرلندا ايرلندا

The "Celtic Tiger" becomes the first country in the euro zone to slide into recession, with a 0.5 percent fall in second quarter GDP, following a 0.3 percent decline in the first quarter. Its last recession in 1983 saw thousands of people leave Ireland to seek work overseas.[111]

  • 26 سبتمبر, 2008: نيوزيلندا نيوزيلاندا

New Zealand falls into a recession for the first time in more than a decade, with a 0.2 percent fall in seasonally adjusted GDP for the second quarter. First-quarter GDP dropped 0.3 percent.

  • 10 اكتوبر, 2008: سنغافورة سنغافورة

First Asian country to slip into a recession since the credit crisis began. Singapore's export-dependent economy shrinks annualized rate of 6.8 percent in the third quarter after a 6.0 percent contraction in the second quarter, its first recession since 2002.

  • 13 نوفمبر, 2008: ألمانيا ألمانيا

Europe's largest economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter after GDP fell 0.4 percent in the second quarter, putting it in recession for the first time in five years.[112]

  • 14 نوفمبر, 2008: إيطاليا ايطاليا, هونگ كونگ هونگ كونگ and الاتحاد الأوروپي منطقة اليورو.

إيطاليا ايطاليا

Italy plunges into recession, its first since the start of 2005, after GDP contracts a steeper-than-expected 0.5 percent in the third quarter. Second quarter GDP dropped 0.3 percent.[113]

هونگ كونگ هونگ كونگ هونگ كونگ أصبحت ثاني إقتصاد آسيوي يدخل في حالة الركود, وقد تضررت صادراتها بضعف الطلب العالمي. في الربع الثالث إنخفض اجمالي الناتج المحلي بنسبة 0.5% بعد إتنخفاض بلغ 1.4 في الربع السابق.

الاتحاد الأوروپي منقطة اليورو

The 15-country euro zone officially slips under, pushed down by recessions in Germany and Italy for its first recession since its creation in 1999.[114][115] These 15 countries are:

  • النمسا النمسا
  • بلجيكا بلجيكا
  • قبرص قبرص
  • فنلندا فلندا
  • فرنسا فرنسا
  • ألمانيا ألمانيا
  • اليونان اليونان
  • جمهورية أيرلندا ايرلندا
  • إيطاليا ايطاليا
  • لوكسمبورگ لوكسمبورگ
  • مالطا مالطا
  • هولندا هولندا
  • الپرتغال البرتغال
  • سلوڤنيا سلوڤنيا
  • إسپانيا اسپانيا
  • November 17, 2008: اليابان اليابان

The world's second-biggest economy slides into recession, its first in seven years. Its GDP contracts 0.1 percent in the July-September quarter, as the financial crisis curbs demand for its exports. It shrank 0.9 percent in the previous quarter.[116]

  • 28 نوفمبر, 2008: السويد السويد

The Nordic nation announces it is in recession after GDP shrinks 0.1 percent in both the second and third quarters.

  • 1 ديسمبر, 2008: الولايات المتحدة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية

دخل اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة حالة الركود منذ ديسمبر 2007, طبقا لما قاله المكتب الوطني للأبحاث الاقتصادية.

والمكتب هو معهد خاص للأبحاث وينظر لمحكم رسمي لدورات الاقتصاد الأمريكي. وقد أضاف أن 73 شهرا من التوسع الاقتصادي قد وصل إلى نهايته.[117]

  • December 9, 2008: كندا كندا

أعلن بنك كندا رسميا عن أن الاقتصاد الكندي حاليا في حالة ركود. [118]

انظر أيضا

قراءت إضافية

  • "Financial crisis : Carping about the TARP : Congress wrangles over how best to avoid financial Armageddon", The Economist, September 23rd 2008
  • "What next? Global finance is being torn apart; it can be put back together again", The Economist, September 18th, 2008
  • "The Bailout Reader", a developing online single-page collection of articles providing background and history on several aspects of the crisis. (Prepared by the Mises Institute.)
  • Nocera, Joe (2008-10-01). "36 Hours of Alarm and Action as Crisis Spiraled". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-10-02. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help) (Background on development of the Treasury proposal to Congress)

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