الأزمة الاقتصادية الإسپانية 2008-2012

الأزمة الاقتصادية الإسپانية 2008–2012 Spanish financial crisis، بدأت كجزء من الأزمة المالية العالمية واستمرت كجزء من أزمة الديون السيادية الاوروپية، والتي أثرت بصفة أساسية على دول جنوب اوروپا وايرلندة. في إسپانيا، تفاقمت الأزمة بسبب القروض طويلة الأجل (والتي تمتد غالباً ل40 سنة)، انهيار أسواء البناء، وشملت إفلاس الشركات الكبرى، والزيادة الحادة في نسبة البطالة، والتي ارتفعت إلى 22.9% في ديسمبر 2011.

واصلت إسپانيا في النمو الاقتصادي بعد تغيير الحزب الحاكم في 2004، مع الحفاظ على نمو الناتج المحلي الاجمالي أثناء الفترة الأولة لرئيس الوزراء خوسيه لويس رودريگث ثپاتيرو، حتى مع بروز مشكلات أساسية في الاقتصاد الإسپاني. من خلال ذلك، وحسب فاينانشيال تايمز، فقد عانت إسپانيا من عجز تجاري (وصل إلى 10% من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي للبلاد في صيف 2008)،"فقدان القدرة التنافسية مع شركائها التجاريين"، وأيضاً، ارتفاع معدل التضخم مقارنة بالشركاء الاوروپيين، وأثر هذا كله في ارتفاع أسعار المنازل بنسبة 150% عن عام 1998 وارتفاع مديونية الأسر (115%) والتي ارتبطت مع فقاعة العقارات الإسپانية والارتفاع الكبير في أسعار الوقود.

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 فقاعة العقارات

المقالة الرئيسية: فقاعة العقارات الإسپانية

The residential real estate bubble in Spain saw real estate prices rise 201% from 1985 to 2007.

€ 651,168,000,000 is the current mortgage debt (second quarter 2005) of Spanish families (this debt continues to grow at 25% per year – 2001 through 2005, with 97% of mortgages at variable rate interest). In 2004 509,293 new properties were built in Spain and in 2005 the number of new properties built were 528,754. 2004 estimations of demand: 300,000 for Spanish people, 100,000 for foreign investors, 100,000 for foreign people living in Spain and 300,000 for stock; in a country with 16.5 million families, 22–24 million houses and 3–4 million empty houses. From all the houses built over the 2001–2007 period, "no less than 28%" are vacant as of late 2008

House ownership in Spain is above 80%. The desire to own one's own home was encouraged by governments in the 60s and 70s, and has thus become part of the Spanish psyche. In addition, tax regulation encourages ownership: 15% of mortgage payments are deductible from personal income taxes. Even more, the oldest apartments are controlled by non-inflation-adjusted rent-controls and eviction is slow, therefore discouraging renting.

As feared, when the speculative bubble popped Spain became one of the worst affected countries. According to eurostat, over the June 2007 – June 2008 period, Spain has been the European country with the sharpest plunge in construction rates. Actual sales over the July 2007 – June 2008 period were down an average 25.3% (with the lion's share of the loss arguably happening in the 2008 tract of this period). So far, some regions have been more affected than others (Catalonia was ahead in this regard with a 42.2% sales plunge while sparsely populated regions like Extremadura were down a mere 1.7% over the same period).

Banks offered 40-year and, more recently, 50-year mortgages. Unlike Ireland, Spanish labour costs did not track house market rises. While some observers suggest that a soft landing will occur, others suggest that a crash in prices is probable. Lower home prices will allow low-income families and young people to enter the market; however, there is a strong perception that house prices never go down. As of August 2008, while new constructions have come virtually to a halt, prices have not had significant movements, neither up nor downwards. The national average price as of late 2008 is 2,095 euros/m2

 ارتفاع الأسعار

Due to the lack of its own resources, Spain has to import all of its fossil fuels, which in a scenario of record prices added much pressure to the inflation rate. Thus, in June 2008 the inflation rate reached a 13-year high of 5.00%. Then, with the dramatic decrease of oil prices that happened in the second half of 2008 plus the confirmed burst of the property bubble, concerns quickly shifted to the risk of deflation instead, as Spain registered in January 2009 its lowest inflation rate in 40 years which was then followed in March 2009 by a negative inflation rate for the first time ever since this statistic was recorded.

 نظام الصرافة الإسپاني

للمزيد من المعلومات: بنك التوفير (إسپانيا)

The Spanish banking system had been credited as one of the most solid and best equipped among all Western economies to cope with the worldwide liquidity crisis, thanks to the country's conservative banking rules and practices. Banks are required to have high capital provisions and demand various proofs and securities from intending borrowers. Nevertheless this practices were strongly relaxed during the housing bubble, a trend to which the regulator (Banco de España) turned a blind eye.

It was later revealed that nearly all the Spanish representatives in their Congress had strong investments in the housing sector, some having up to twenty houses. Over the time, more and more news have emerged about the informal alliance between Spanish central and regional governments, the banking sector (bear in mind for example the recent government pardon of the second at command at the Santander Bank, while all the major parties are strongly indebted with banks, and such debts are extended from time to time) which increased the bubble size over the years. Most regional semipublic savings banks (cajas ) lended heavily to real state companies which at the end of the bubble went bankrupt, then, the cajas found themselves left with the collateral and properties of those companies, namely overpriced real state and residential-zoned land, now worthless, rendering the cajas in essence bankrupted.

In stark contrast with countries like Ireland, no nationalization took place, instead the problem was rolled-over with the extension of the remaining real state companies debts, while the central government bailed once and again banks and Cajas alike. For more than three years, there has been a steady process of bank concentration. Spain had the densest bank office net in Europe and this has forced many dismissals of bank employees.

Recently a calculus was made that showed that about 40.000 people were redundant. Oddly, the bank Board of Members have mostly kept their job, even for merged entities. Golden parachutes have been ubiquitous It has been speculated that this was because of fear that laid off senior members would talk about the rampant malpractice inside the sector. No bankers have been on trial for their role in all this process, once again in stark contrast with countries like Iceland.

In May 2012 credit ratings of several Spanish banks were downgraded, some to "junk" status. The Bankia bank, the country's largest mortgage lender, was nationalised on 9 May, and on 25 May it announced that it would require a bailout of 23.5€ billion to cover losses from failed mortgages.

It was agreed by eurozone finance ministers on 9 June 2012 that Spanish banks would be provided with up to €100bn of rescue loans. This money is to be distributed via the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (Frob), and that the exact amount to be loaned would be determined after audits of the banks. A statement from EC President Jose Manuel Barroso and vice-president Olli Rehn welcomed the move, saying "With this thorough restructuring of the banking sector, together with the on-going determined implementation of structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, we are certain that Spain can gradually regain the confidence of investors and market participants." The move was also welcomed by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

 أزمة البطالة

As for the employment, after having completed substantial improvements over the second half of the 1990s and during the 2000s which put a few regions on the brink of full employment, Spain suffered a severe setback in October 2008 when it saw its unemployment rate surging to 1996 levels. During the period October 2007 – October 2008 Spain had its unemployment rate climbing 37%, exceeding by far the unemployment surge of past economic crises like 1993. In particular, during this particular month of October 2008, Spain suffered its worst unemployment rise ever recorded and, so far, the country is suffering Europe's biggest unemployment crisis.

By July 2009, it had shed 1.2 million jobs in one year and was to have the same number of jobless as France and إيطاليا combined. Spain's unemployment rate hit 17.4% at the end of March, with the jobless total now having doubled over the past 12 months, when two million people lost their jobs. In this same month, Spain for the first time in her history had over 4,000,000 people unemployed, an especially shocking figure even for a country which had become used to grim unemployment data.

 الهجرة العشوائية

للمزيد من المعلومات: الهجرة إلى إسپانيا

Although rapidly slowing, large scale immigration continued throughout 2008 despite the severe unemployment crisis, thereby worsening an already grave situation. There are now indications that established immigrants have begun to leave, although many that have are still retaining a household in Spain due to the poor conditions that exist in their country of origin.

 الدين العام

In late 2010, Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose to over 5.5%, more than 2% higher than comparable German government bonds. In June 2011, the spread on the Spanish 10-year government bond versus the German 10-year government bond rose to over 2.70%.

 التصنيفات

للمرة الثالثة خلال 13 شهر، خفضت موديز تصنيف إسپانيا. في 18 أكتوبر 2011 خفضت موديز تصنيف إسپانيا درجتين من A1 إلى Aa2. وخفضت ستاندارد أند پور تصنيف إسپانيا في 14 أكتوبر 2011 وكانت فيتش راتينگ قد خفضته إلى نفس المستوى في 7 أكتوبر 2011.

وفي 14 يونيو 2012 خفضت موديز تصنيف الديون السيادية الطويلة الأجل لإسپانيا ثلاث درجات إلى BAA3.

 انظر أيضاً

• أزمة الديون السيادية الاوروپية
• Bailout of Spain's banks