أكاذيب ثم تخرصات ثم إحصائيات
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The phrase derives from the full sentence, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."; it was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain and others, who mistakenly attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.[1] As is now widely discussed, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death.[1] The phrase was attributed to an anonymous writer in mid-1891 and later that year to Sir Charles Dilke,[1] but several others have been listed as originators of the quote,[1] including frequent erroneous attribution to Twain himself.[2][1]
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التاريخ
Mark Twain popularized the saying in Chapters from My Autobiography, published in the North American Review in 1907.[بحاجة لمصدر] "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"[3]
Attribution of the saying likely derives from earlier expressions regarding legal witness, where it takes forms relating liars, damned liars, and experts:
- That phrase is found in the science journal, Nature, in November 1885: "A well-known lawyer, now a judge, once grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts. He did not mean that the expert uttered things which he knew to be untrue, but that by the emphasis which he laid on certain statements, and by what has been defined as a highly cultivated faculty of evasion, the effect was actually worse than if he had.", where the reference to the judge may be to Baron Bramwell.[1][4]
- In a meeting of the x Club held on 5 December 1885, T.H. Huxley described the conversation thus: "Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses—liars, d—d liars, and experts."[1][5]
The earliest instance of the phrase that includes the reference to statistics that is found in print datesقالب:Says who to a letter written in the British newspaper National Observer on 8 June 1891, published 13 June 1891, where it was written: "Sir, —It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics that the advocate of national pensions relies...".[6][بحاجة لمصدر غير رئيسي]قالب:Verification needed
Popular culture
- "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" is the name of episode 21 in the first season of NBC drama The West Wing.[7]
المراجع
- ^ أ ب ت ث ج ح خ خطأ استشهاد: وسم
<ref>غير صحيح؛ لا نص تم توفيره للمراجع المسماةunivyork - ^ Velleman, Paul F. (2008). "Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics". Journal of Statistics Education. 16 (2). Retrieved 4 November 2019.
- ^ Twain, Mark (1906). "Chapters from My Autobiography". North American Review. Project Gutenberg. Retrieved 23 May 2007.
- ^ This full quptation appears not in Prof Lee's summary, but can be found here: Nature Staff (26 November 1885). "The Whole Duty of a Chemist". 33 (839): 73-77 (esp. p. 74). Retrieved 4 November 2019.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ Quoted in 1900 in Leonard Huxley's letter collection of T.H. Huxley, see Huxley, Leonard, ed. (1900). The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley. Vol. I. London: Macmillan. pp. 255, 257–258. Archived from the original on 2013-03-28. The page reference in the Gutenberg transcription of this source was pp. 255, 257–258. See also MacLeod, Roy M. (1970). "The X-club as a Social Network of Science in Late-Victorian England". Notes and Records of the Royal Society of London. 24 (2): 305–322, esp. p. 314.
- ^ Unknown author (13 June 1891). "National Pensions [To the Editor of The National Observer]". London, England.
{{cite journal}}:|author=has generic name (help); Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ "The West Wing: Season 1, Episode 21 : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics". IMDb.com. Retrieved 31 January 2014.
للاستزادة
- Lee, Peter M. (2017) "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" at the support material of the academic web pages of the late Prof Lee, which authoritatively and thoroughly review—including through use of extensive quotations and references—the subject and evidence touched upon in this article.
- Reinhart, Alex. Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide. No Starch Press. p. 176. ISBN 978-1593276201.